The Future of Manchuria. The negotiations between Russia and China concerning the future of Manchuria have been going on all the month, and at the moment of writing, the Chinese had not signed the Treaty of Peace. A good deal of nonsense has been talked concerning the impropriety of Russia conducting separate negotiations with China about Manchuria instead of dealing with the rest of the Powers. But a moment's reflection will show the absurdity of this complaint. Russia, as one of the Allied Powers, has her account to settle with China for the attack upon the Legations, and her action thereanent appears to have been perfectly correct. But China made war upon Russia in Manchuria, and in order to defend the railway which she has her treaty right to make and to defend, Russia had to wage a war the magnitude of which has never been adequately realised in this country. It is this war which she wishes to terminate by the treaty, and with this treaty none of the other Powers have anything to do. The treaty which Russia has submitted to China, as first drafted, gave Russia exclusive rights over the whole of Northern China, including Mongolia and Kashgar, but this clause was subsequently abandoned. The Russians, who are now in the position of the conquering Power in Manchuria, propose to restore the provinces to China, under a Convention which will make them as supreme as we are in Egypt. If there is no Convention, the Russians will stay where they are, and Manchuria will become, contrary to the wishes of the Russian Government, Russian territory. But the Russians do not wish to annex Manchuria, for the same reason that we do not wish to annex Egypt. What they wish to do is to obtain all the advantages that would come from annexation without breaking any diplomatic crockery or undertaking direct responsibility for the government of a country which they do not wish-at all events, at present to add to their possessions. Japan is fidgeting about Korea, where the situation has been strained by the unfortunate expiry of Mr. Macleavy Browne's term of office as Director of the Korean Customs. Neither France nor the United States will fire a shot to support the Chinese Government if they decide to refuse their signature to the Manchurian Convention. Germany ostentatiously declares that she will do as she pleases. The only possibility of war lies in an alliance between Britain and Japan against Russia. The Dispute at Tientsin. While these delicate and difficult Railway Siding negotiations were going on, in which we were playing once more our old rôle of endeavouring to thwart Russia in securing what they wanted in Manchuria, without annexation, an incident occurred at Tientsin which brought us near to war. A Chinese railway company, in which British shareholders are interested, began to make a siding for the use of the Allies on territory which the Russians claimed had been conceded to them by China. There seems to be no dispute that the Russians had set up boundary posts and hoisted the Russian flag on other Powers. Apparently without making any reprethis territory without any protest from any one of the sentations to the Russian authorities, the Chinese railway company, supported by British troops, overthrew the Russian boundary posts and hauled down the Russian flag. The Russians protested. Our evening papers, with a great flourish of trumpets, proclaimed the fact that the British officer in command had ordered the British troops to proceed with the work regardless of Russia's protests. Russians and British immediately began reinforcing their troops upon the disputed territory. For the moment it seemed as if our demented newspapers, Both Westminster Budget. Dual Control. Which is the real head? [March 8. troops to send to China saves us from what would otherwise have been a very terrible danger. The position, it is true, is not favourable to Great Britain. It is not pleasant to think what might have happened if the Russian policy were directed by any Sovereign less friendly than Nicholas II. It is ignominious, no doubt, to know that we are holding our position in China by the sufferance of the Tsar. Our consolation is that the fact is so patent that even Mr. Chamberlain, if he were Foreign Minister, would think twice before forcing matters to an extreme. No Progress Meanwhile the negotiations between the Allies and the Chinese Government seem to make little progress. The Allies have executed two high Chinese officials whom they had as prisoners, but the toll of heads which the Western Powers have demanded from the Chinese Court has not been rendered. Neither the Emperor nor the Empress has returned to Peking. The proposal to convert the Legations into a great fortified camp does not tend to attract the fugitives from their security at Singan-fu. The whole question of the indemnity remains open. If heavy indemnity is insisted upon, the necessary loan must be raised by increasing the duties levied upon imports, which is of course directly detrimental to the interests of foreign trade with China. Altogether it is a pretty kettle of fish. Even the Kaiser must disputed territory and that the question should be begin to doubt whether his seizure of Kiau-tchau was quite such a brilliant stroke of state-craft as he from the Times downwards, were determined to force on a war with Russia, for which we were totally unprepared. Fortunately the Jingo papers did not entirely. dominate the policy of Downing Street, and after communications had been exchanged between Lord Lansdowne and Count Lamsdorff, it was decided that the forces on both sides should evacuate the referred either to the decision of Count von Waldersee or some other arbitrator. The troops therefore were withdrawn, the Russians put up again their boundary posts and re-established their flag where it had been hauled down. The status quo ante having been restored, the dispute awaits the award of the arbitrator to whom the matter is to be referred. against This incident is ominous of the dan How we are insured gerous possibilities that lurk in the War with Russia, existing situation. Fortunately, however, we are insured against what would otherwise have been an almost inevitable war, by the simple fact that we are absolutely powerless. It is the one compensation which we have for the hideous disaster of the South African War. If instead of having an army of a quarter of a million men helplessly locked up in South Africa, the South African question had been settled by arbitration, heaven only knows what would have happened to us in the hands of our howling demagogues and their blind followers in Downing Street. The fact, however, that the Russians have the preponderance of forces in the Far East, and that we have absolutely no fresh Amsterdammer.] WOLDELY From a Dutch Point of V.ew. COOK LANSDOWNE: "It was your fault that the soup is burned." imagined it to be in the days when he talked about the "mailed fist." Failure. Those readers who complain that I Mr. Brodrick's take too gloomy a view of the prospect before this country will be invited to consider whether their complaints are justified in the light of the proposals which have been submitted by Mr. Brodrick on behalf of the Government for strengthening England so as to rescue us from the position of impotence into which Mr. Chamberlain's policy has plunged us. Neither are they likely to be reassured by the recriminations between Lord Wolseley and Lord Lansdowne in the House of Lords. The proposals which Mr. Brodrick laid before the House of Commons for reconstructing the British Army which has been destroyed in South Africa afford melancholy evidence of Imperial senility. We have not a friend in the world. We have popular feeling excited against us to an extent almost without parallel. We have an unending war on our hands in South Africa which, if it is to be prosecuted to the bitter end, urgently calls for the immediate raising and equipping of an army of continual reinforcements. But what does Mr. Brodrick do? That he proposes to increase the army estimates by millions per annum goes without saying. But what are we to get for our money? It is not too much to say that the more his proposals are looked into, the more tragi-comical do they appear. I quote in another part of the REVIEW the criticism of military experts upon this ghastly failure to cope with one of the most serious crises which ever threatened the existence of an empire. The only defence that is made for it is that Mr. Brodrick is riding for a fall, and that he is paving the way for a demand for conscription in a couple of years. But meantime? The value of this precious scheme may be gauged by one solitary fact. The scheme is based upon the supposition that we only need to keep an army of 12,000 men in South Africa. As Mr. Chamberlain himself admitted that if peace had been concluded last year, it would have been necessary to maintain 30,000 men there, we can form some idea of the imbecility of the proposal with which Mr. Brodrick considers that he has provided adequately for the safety of the Empire. The ship of State has sprung a leak, both fore and aft. She is labouring heavily on a stormy sea, and this miraculous and heaven-sent Ministry proposes as an adequate remedy that we should ladle out the water with a golden spoon! Paying the Piper. a The War Estimates show an increase of two millions, the Naval Estimates show one of the same amount. And yet, to judge from the criticisms of the expert, the more money we spend, the less value we have to show for it. Last year our revenue was £140,000,000, our expenditure £183,000,000. The net result of this, however, is that we have to provide ten millions a year more for our army and navy than we had to do before. This does not represent the running expenditure of a million and a half a week, to keep the war going in South Africa. It represents normal and permanent increase of expenditure, and as such, it has to be met, not by a loan but by taxation. The Budget has been postponed as far as possible, but although we may delay the evil day, it arrives none the less certainly. Twopence on the income tax, an increase of the sugar duties, are regarded as inevitable, but opinions differ as to the supplementary imposts which will be levied upon the necessaries of life as a reminder of the gratitude which we owe to the New Diplomacy. Verily the ways of the transgressor are hard. Before another twelve months are over, even the man in the street will probably conclude that it is possible to buy even gold too dear. There would be some consolation if there were visible in any influential quarter a disposition to face the facts and to grapple seriously with the situation. Unfortunately we look in vain for clear guidance and resolute leadership. of the House of Commons. The House of Commons, an assembly The Decadence in which are gathered together the elect of British democracy, is steadily losing in authority and prestige. Ministers by their mismanagement have created a financial position which renders it necessary to lay violent hands on the privileges of Members and the time-honoured privileges of debate. Matters came to a climax on March 5th, when it was proposed to closure a discussion on the supplementary estimates of £19,000,000 without allowing a single Irish member to be heard. The whole sitting was devoted to a discussion on education, a matter, no doubt, of pre-eminent importance, but one which did not raise any of the other questions involved in the supplementary estimates. When the division for the closure was called, a certain number of Irish members refused to leave the House on the division. On being ordered to do so, they refused. The Chairman of Committee sent for the Speaker, and in the name of the chair he insisted upon their leaving their seats. Weekly Freeman.] [March 23. Session is to disfranchise his constituency for that period. The proper course to have taken was to have vacated the seat. The objection that the only result would be that the recalcitrant member would be re-elected does not affect the matter. He would in any case have to go through the ordeal of an election. If he were again returned and should again defy the power of the Chair, the House would then be justified in suspending him for the remainder of the Session. In that case his constituency could hardly complain of being disenfranchised, seeing that they elected him with their eyes open, and persisted in re-electing a member who was determined to oppose the rule of the Speaker. In the discussion upon the new rule, the Prime Minister's son, Lord Hugh Cecil, distinguished himself by proposing to send the contumacious members to gaol, and by telling the House of Commons to its face that it no longer possessed the authority and prestige of former days. The tameness with which the House has submitted to Ministerial encroachments and the taunts of the "Hotel Cecil" has led men to ask with some misgivings whether after all we are to see a revival of the power of the Crown as a remedy for the weakness and inefficiency of the popular assembly. The Irish View: A Fair Answer. The Irish members still remaining obdurate, they were suspended by a by a vote of the House, and then, as they still refused to leave their seats, the Speaker summoned a posse of police, who by sheer brute force carried the recalcitrant members one after another out of the House into the lobby. The occasion was one of violence happily without parallel in English politics. Similar scenes have unfortunately often occurred in Vienna, where the violence of racial animosities has repeatedly necessitated the introduction of force into an arena that should be sacred to free debate. The On the following day, after a discovery that one innocent member Wrong Remedy. had been confounded with the contumacious company in which he was sitting, the question of penalties to be imposed in case of future defiance of the Chair was raised by Mr. Balfour, who succeeded in securing the adoption of a rule that if any member specifically refuses to obey the Chair, he shall be suspended from further attendance in the House for the rest of the Session. No one denies that it was necessary to arm the Chair with greater authority, but this was surely the wrong way of setting about it. To exclude a member from the House during the whole of the Moonshine.] The Future the Monarchy. Fortunately, Edward VII. has not ex The English View: "Frustrate their Knavish Tricks." MR. BALFOUR (to the Speaker): "No mercy, Mr. Speaker. Apply the new rule sternly, and then perhaps we may be spared these disgraceful scenes.' There is only one bright spot visible changed souls with his nephew of Berlin, otherwise we might not have long to wait for startling developments of the monarchical power. The King, however, is taking himself very seriously, and he is giving his Ministers a great deal of work. He insists upon being consulted in all important matters. Lately the King has been receiving a number of deputations bearing addresses, to each of which he has replied with words suitable to the occasion. The Royal Tour. The Duke and Duchess of Cornwall and York sailed from Portsmouth in the Ophir on the 16th March, on a tour which has been extended so as to include South Africa and Canada. The Ophir had somewhat rough experiences in crossing the Bay of Biscay, but no damage was done, and the reception of the royal travellers at Gibraltar and Malta was full of popular enthusiasm. Before the days of the new diplomacy such tours as this might have reasonably been regarded as a valuable reinforcement of the ties which tend to strengthen our colonies and dependencies in their loyalty. Now, however, the royal promenade can hardly be regarded as adequate to the necessities of the situation. It is too much like organising a champagne picnic to retrieve the disasters of a lost campaign. The London Election. The among the clouds which lower all County Council round the horizon, and that is the result of the County Council elections. For the fifth time the citizens of London have placed the Moderates in a minority at the poll, but never before has their victory been so decisive. Moderates, who threw off the mask of moderation, and endeavoured to snatch a victory by importing Imperial issues into municipal politics, were beaten hip and thigh, from Dan even unto Beersheba. The Progressives captured fourteen seats, and secured an overwhelming majority of fifty-six in the Council. This majority is still further increased by the election of aldermen, and now the London County Council, armed with an imperative mandate from the constituencies, will address itself to the housing and tramways questions, and will do the best it can to supply every house in London with a constant service of pure water. Unfortunately, however, the citizens of London returned at the last General Election a solid phalanx of Unionist members of the House of Commons, and this folly on their part cannot be atoned for even by the election of a Progressive majority at the County Council Election. Voting solely on a London issue, |