In thirty-five States and Territories the value of the manufactured products per capita coheres with the density per square mile of area of settlement and is opposed to the birthrate, and in three States the three cohere, making thirtyeight States and Territories in which the value of the manufactured products per capita and the density of population cohere. In thirty-three States and Territories the value of the manufactured products per capita coheres with both the density of population and the deaths from nervous diseases and opposes the birth-rate, while in two States the four cohere. Thus in thirty-five of the forty-seven States and Territories in the United States, the conditions of density, manufactured wealth, and deaths from nervous diseases are similar, and in thirty-three of these States and Territories they directly oppose the birth-rate. The only conclusion to be drawn from such facts is that the conditions of advancing civilization are actually lowering the birth-rate, and that the conditions of a simpler agricultural life favor a high birth-rate. Through the courtesy of Mr. George K. Holmes of the Department of Farms, Homes, and Mortgages of the United States Census Bureau, the figures of the eleventh census have been obtained in advance for the mortgage indebtedness and the values of agricultural products per acre of improved land. As the figures of the birth-rate per thousand women of child-bearing age are not yet available, these statistics are compared with the figures of the birth-rate per thousand of population, which were given by Dr. Billings in his article on "The Diminishing Birth-rate in the United States."'* The statistics of density of population† per square mile, the area of settlement, and the value of manufactured products are already published so that, with the exception of * The Forum, June, 1893. +"Compendium of the Eleventh Census Report," Part I. ! "Extra Census Bulletin," No. 67. the death-rate from nervous diseases, approximately the same comparisons that were made for 1880 can be made for 1890. The States of North Dakota and South Dakota will be omitted in this study, as their birth-rates are not given. TABLE VII. BIRTH-RATES AND FACTORS OF ECONOMIC CONDITION, 1890. A comparison of the birth-rate and the density of population per square mile of area of settlement for 1890 (Tables VII. and VIII.) shows seventeen States and Territories in which the phenomena cohere, and twenty-nine in which they oppose each other; whereas in 1880 they were opposed in thirtynine of the forty-seven States and Territories. This increase of coherences may be partly accounted for by the fact that the statistics of the birth-rate are computed on the basis of the total population, instead of on the basis of the women between the ages of fifteen and forty-nine, as in 1880. four States and Territories (Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming) in which the phenomena cohere, the birthrate is below the average for the United States, whereas in 1880, when the birth-rate was given per thousand women between fifteen and forty-nine years of age, it was above the STATES AND TERRITORIES, 1890. TABLE VIII. COMPARISON OF BIRTH-RATES AND FACTORS OF ECONOMIC Alabama +3.71 Arizona -1.74 -2.78 -29.74* -10.89 -0.04 -19.65* Colorado -1.59 -26.14* +8.05* +$1.72* -$105.20 -$70.00 -133.74* -$7.00* -83.00 +27.01 +104.00 +0.32 Connecticut -46.57* +110.00 -5.42 +121.87 +132.72 +6.11 Delaware +183.15 +11.00 -1.79 +53.81 District of Columbia +64.66 +1.62 +73.36 0.00 +3818.56 +30.81 Florida -14.09 +3.67* Georgia. +1.82* -112.12 -81.00 Idaho. +0.46 Illinois +0.32* Indiana +87.84* +4.00* -1.39 +28.89 +39.74 -0.61* +46.17 -45.00* +13.15 Kansas. -0.61* -84.22* +8.00 -3.84 -2.62 Kentucky -72.40 +74.00* +25.16* Louisiana -71.00 Maine +7.52* -8.89 Maryland -6.47* +0.80 +0.36 -4.88* -0.81 -47.00* +73.56 +84.41 +0.87 +15.22 Massachusetts -34.00* +10.06 Michigan +247.06 +48.00 -1.88 +1.60 -16.91* Minnesota -24.00* +3.26 -9.02 Mississippi -4.87 -0.48 -2.12 +56.00* +6.52* Missouri -81.00 +2.04 +6.82* +17.67* -1.33 -28.74 -16.00 -20.40** -0.03* +2.54 -15.37 -7.53 -2.50 -61.77 Nevada +30.00* -10.33 -28.33* -20.89* -3.14* New Hampshire -125.48* -48.00* New Jersey +78.16 -46.00* -1.52 +161.66 +172.51 +7.63 New Mexico +94.80 +65.00 New York -139.76 -53.00 -3.40 +96.60 +104.64 +2.98 +135-74 +172.00 +1.16* +11.99* -0.48 -124.67 Ohio -83.00 -25.00* Oregon. -4.19 -25.37* -17.99* -1.47* Pennsylvania -17.58* -23.00* -0.99 +84.72 Rhode Island +95-57 +2.30 +103.61 +21.00 +297.13 +8.49 South Carolina +4.39 +6.00* +16.85* Tennessee +2.89* -121.89 -84.00 +3.92 +10.18* +21.03* -0.98 -108.69 Texas. -73.00 Utah +4.59 -17.34 -12.79 -1.50 -118.12 -54.00 +4.52 -24.45 -18.78 +2.04* -106.77 -57.00 Vermont -8.17 +4.23 -34.29* -12.00* In one State (Delaware) the mortgage debt per capita is the same as for the United States. The average; in Illinois the change is the other way. excess of men in the population of Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming tends to make the birth-rate per thousand of population proportionally much lower than that per thousand of women between the ages of fifteen and fortynine.* It may therefore be assumed that, if the birth-rates were calculated on the same basis as were those of 1880, these States and Territories would have higher rates than the average for the United States, and would show opposition instead of coherence in the phenomena of birth-rate and density. In three of the States in which the phenomena cohere, (Missouri, North Carolina, and Wisconsin), the density has increased so that it is above the average instead of below, as in 1880. The figures of the birth-rate are also slightly above the average. It is impossible to judge whether or not they would fall below the average, if they were computed on the basis of the number of women between the ages of fifteen and forty-nine. One State only (Maine) remains to be accounted for. During the last ten years Maine has added eight thousand square miles to its area of settlement,† and yet its total population has increased only 12,150, or about 1.5 persons have been added for each additional square mile of area of settlement. This fact indicates that the population in other parts of the State must have decreased, as all land with less than two inhabitants per square mile is counted as unsettled area. These facts make plain the cause of the great decrease in density per square mile of area of settlement in Maine, which brings it below the average for the United States. The birth-rate remains below the average, as in 1880. With the exception of Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming, there are only thirteen States and Territories in which the phenomena of density and birth-rate cohere, and in eight of these the * In Montana there are 43,605 more men than women; in Oregon 49,913; in Washington 85.734; in Wyoming 17,981. +"Compendium of the Eleventh Census Report," I. p. xlvii. "Compendium of the Eleventh Census Report," p. 4, Table I. b. |