rate of increase of mankind; and to these ends has he written this book.

Mr Godwin begins with what he calls general views of the increase of mankind. In imagination, he carries his reader up into an exceeding high mountain,' to show him all the kingdoms of the world.' The first thing, that occurs to him. who thus surveys "all the kingdoms of the world," and the state of their population, is the thinness of their numbers, and the multitude and extent of their waste and desolate places.' 'He sees his species as a little remnant widely scattered over a fruitful and prolific surface, and weeps to think that the kindly and gracious qualities of our mother earth are turned to so little account.' Mr G. affirms, that not only could the globe maintain twenty times its present number of inhabitants, but that this increased number might exist in a state of greater plenty and happiness, than is enjoyed by our present small number. Whether he is right or not, in his calculations, there is no doubt that the earth might support a very much larger number of human beings than at present inhabit it. What then becomes of the geometrical increase, and a doubling every twenty-five years? Where has it been operating? The world has existed for more than six thousand years; and by this theory there ought to be men enough to fill the universe: and yet the fact is, that this little planet does not contain, by an immense number, all the inhabitants which it alone is capable of supporting. And not only the earth is not full, as it ought to be; but when we take a more minute survey of its parts, we find many of them, which once sustained nations and crowded cities, are now amongst its waste and desolate places.' Montesquieu, with the Persian letters, is called in to aid us in the enquiry, and convince us that the populousness of ancient nations was greater than that of modern. And then we are referred to the opinions of a large portion of political writers and practical statesmen, of all ages and countries, who have ever thought that the decline of population was the greatest evil that could befal a nation; and hence have been led into the belief that those were the best philanthropists who could devise the strongest encouragements for the increase of our race. Upon what evidence,' he then asks, is it [the doctrine of a geometrical increase] to be received? Upon one solitary experiment (and I must be allowed to add, a most equivocal one) of one bare hundred and fifty

6

years, in one infant colony, as I may call it, in an obscure nook of the new world; and this replied to and refuted, with one voice, and with an evidence the most consenting and astounding, by all ages and countries, by all sects of religion and forms of government, that were ever heard of or devised.'

But in order to ascertain whether the above remarks contradict Mr Malthus' position, it is well for us to recollect precisely, what is the position he assumes. His words are, that 'population, when unchecked, goes on doubling itself every twenty-five years.' He does not affirm that such has actually been the rate of increase at all times, and throughout the world; and this Mr G. must have known, for a great part of Mr Malthus' book is taken up by the inquiry into the nature of those checks, which in different parts of the world have kept down population so much below its natural level. It is not pretended by any one that there is any material difference in the natural fecundity of the human race in different countries; at least Mr G. is very strenuous in insisting that there is none. It would seem therefore neither unfair nor unphilosophical to take the ascertained rate of increase in any one country, as proof that the human race is capable of that rate of increase. The inquiry is, in what period will population, when unchecked, double itself. We look at the United States, where the usual checks have operated with less force than in any other part of the world, and we find the period there is twenty-five years. Now it would be of no consequence, if it could be proved that in every other nation on earth the rate of increase is so slow, that it would require a hundred, or even a thousand years, to double the population. The fact is proved, that the human race can increase so fast as to double in a period of twenty-five years. It becomes, it is true, a very important question, why population does not increase as fast in other countries as in this. What are those checks which have in them operated with such terrible effect against the powerful tendency of human nature? Into this inquiry Mr M. has entered, and has executed his task in no hasty or superficial manner. Perhaps the larger, and by no means the least important, part of the essay on population, is devoted to this subject; and it would have been well for Mr G. (if he were able) to have pointed out any incorrectness in this part of his opponent's statements and arguments. But whilst he has not done this, his angry railings against Mr M. for assuming his

fact from the American censuses alone, are as absurd as they are undignified.

But Mr Godwin not merely denies that Mr Malthus was authorized in assuming the rate of increase in the United States, as that which is the natural rate of mankind. A point of much more importance with him is, to show that no such increase as our censuses indicate, has ever been the result of procreation alone. And here it is proper to remark that the correctness of our censuses is not called in question by either party. The dispute is merely about the cause of the increase of our numbers. Mr Malthus says it is a natural increase. Mr Godwin seriously asserts, and spends no small part of his work in attempting to prove that it is owing merely to emigrations from Europe, and particularly from Great Britain. The bare statement of such a proposition will excite surprise in this country; and our readers will feel some curiosity to learn by what sort of evidence a fact is proved, which to us, on this outside of the world,' (as our ancestors used to call it) is so novel.

The first proof is truly an exquisite one, though not more so than the point it is intended to establish. Mr Godwin has been told that between the years 1630 and 1640, twenty-one thousand two hundred British subjects were computed to have passed over to New England only. By looking into Anderson's history of commerce, he finds an enumeration of the ships cleared outward in 1663; and their tonnage was 142,900. In 1818, the tonnage of ships cleared outward was 3,072,409. He then states a question in the rule of three: if 142,900 tons yielded an emigration of 2,000 persons, what emigration will be yielded by 3,072,409 tons? And he thus finds that 43,000 persons emigrated in 1818. (p. 407.) To this argument we shall not attempt a reply. We never reason against the arithmetic; and so we pass to the next piece of evidence. It is an official account of the number which had emigrated from Ireland to North America, in the three years ending January 5th, 1819. The whole number is 35,633. But this includes the emigrations to the British dominions in America. It is known, that extraordinary inducements had, shortly before this period, been held out to the poorer classes of the United Kingdom to emigrate to the Canadas, by offering them at first, a free passage, a grant of land, implements of husbandry, and support for the first six months. These inducements were afterwards restricted to a grant of land; which

fore, we are not acquainted with; but we have ascertained that the whole number of passengers was 10,722, of which 2,415 were from the United States,' leaving 8,307 foreigners. Besides this, we have a newspaper before us, which professes to give an abstract of 'official returns ordered to be printed by the house of commons' of Great Britain. From these it appears, that from the year 1812 to the year 1821, both years included, there emigrated to the United States-from Ireland, 30,653-from England, 33,608-from Scotland, 4,727. The whole amount of emigrations to the United States, 68,988. During the same period, there embarked for the British dominions in North America, from Ireland, 47,223-from England, 23,783-from Scotland, 19,971. Total of emigrations to the British dominions 90,977. Total of emigrations from the United Kingdom, 159,965. This gives us an annual average of 6,898 emigrants to the United States; and this we take to be not far from the true average. For if the above period embraces the years of the war, when there were no emigrations to this country, it likewise embraces the extraordinary years 1817 and 1818, when the emigrations were double or treble what they ever were before, or have been since. We should add about one ninth to the above amount, for emigrants from other countries than Great Britain; for we take it, that about nine tenths of all the foreigners who come to this country, come from the United Kingdom, and we shall have an average of little more than 7,500 emigrants per annum. And whilst we thus find the documents of the British government, and of our own, coinciding so nearly, it is impossible to think that both are very far from the truth. With regard to the years 1817 and 1818, the only satisfactory information we possess, is from Dr Seybert's valuable work. We are there

furnished with the number of passengers arriving at the principal ports of the United States, during the year 1817, as obtained from the records of the several custom houses. The number was 22,240. If we make a proper deduction for the number of Americans who must have been among these passengers, we shall conclude that the number of emigrants for that year was about 18,000. Dr Seybert supposes the number in common years to be 6,000; and allowing them the extraordinary rate of increase of 5 per cent. per annum, he calculates, that deprived of this foreign aid, our population would require, in order to effect

* Statistical Annals, p. 29.

a duplication, four fifths of a year longer than it now does. The amount of emigration in common years, we are of opinion, varies from six to eight thousand. To make out Mr Godwin's proposition, it ought to be about two hundred and forty thousand.

If any thing be wanting to confirm the above statement, we may find it in the last census. The number of 'foreigners not naturalized,' is there given under a distinct head, and amounts only to 53,655. No foreigner can be naturalized until he has resided within the United States at least five years; and consequently we have the whole number which could have arrived during the five years preceding the census, even if we suppose that all who arrived before that period were naturalized as soon as the law would permit. But we know that a great many delay obtaining naturalization for several years after they are entitled to it; and not a few are never naturalized at all. From all the above sources of information, and the agreement of them all, we have as much certainty respecting the amount of emigration as the nature of the subject will admit of.

We have said that Mr. G's proposition, 'that the present population of the American continent must have arisen from a direct transportation of the inhabitants of the Old World to the New,' is stated' with one exception.' The limitation alluded to is this:

The majority of the emigrants that pass over from Europe to North America may be supposed to be in the flower of their life. Now every such emigrant is equal to two human beings, taken indiscriminately among the population, or rather among the rising generation of an old established country. For example, we have found that, in four children born into the world, we have no right to count upon more than one female, who by child bearing, can contribute to keep up or increase the numbers of mankind in the next generation. But of emigrants withdrawing themselves to America, as we have been informed they usually withdraw themselves in families, we have a right, if they go in the flower of their lives, out of every four, to count upon two females who, by child bearing, may contribute to the future population of the country.' pp. 404, 405.

Mr Godwin had supposed, independently of this limitation, the annual number of emigrants necessary to account for the increase between 1790 and 1810, to be one hundred and New Series, No. 12. 39