of Japan. Europe, it would be about as safe to insert a red-hot poker in a barrel of gunpowder, as it would be for Great Britain to occupy and administer the city of Constantine. The Sultan knows this as well as any one, and hence, secure in his very impotence, he baffles all the efforts of all the Governments to induce him to govern decently in Armenia. The Future Apart from our own immediate affairs in China and in the Levant, the sky looks stormy enough in the direction of Japan. Both the Japanese and the Russians appear to have taken for granted that the recent war but cleared the stage for the real antagonists to take the field. Russia is said to be straining every nerve to reinforce her army in Vladivostock; artillery and munitions of war are being hurried eastward; and, when the time comes for trying conclusions with the Japanese, the Russians hope to have an army of 90,000 men on the spot. The Japanese, on the other hand, are intensely indignant at the intervention of Russia, whom they recognise as the principal in this matter. They are preparing to spend the indemnity they have extorted from China in strengthening their fleet. The electorate will, it is said, enthusiastically support the proposal for increasing the standing army, and, in short, for going into training for the impending conflict. They have as yet shown no indication of any disposition to evacuate the Liaotung peninsula, and Russia and France are said to be taking steps for the purpose of expediting their movements. The action of Germany is not yet certain. Affairs in Korea are the reverse of reassuring. The Koreans are likely to give the Japanese much more trouble than did the Chinese, and every day it seems more certain that here also we are but at the beginning of a new epoch; nor can any one foresee what the end will be. Russia in the What the policy of Russia will be we have to judge from hints supplied by Far East. her actions rather than from declarations furnished by her rulers. A rumour has been circulated to the effect that, in return for her services in guaranteeing the two loans that China has raised in France, Russia is to have Port Arthur. This has been promptly denied. By her two loans, Russia has reduced China to the position of a tributary. She has no missionaries as hostages in the interior of the Chinese Empire, and she will probably work steadily and continuously, without haste and without rest, to convert the northern portion of the Chinese Empire into a Russian dependency. This ought to be good news for our Russophobes, for if Russia is seriously going to digest China, she will have no appetite for any of the rest of the world for twenty years to come. Instinct, however, and the inbred conservatism of the Russian Foreign Office, will lead the Tzar and his advisers to preserve the Chinese Empire intact, rather than to face the fearful overturn that would result if any attempt were made to inaugurate a scramble for Chinese provinces. Her True Policy. As long as the whole Chinese Empire obeys orders from Pekin, Russia can dominate 400,000,000 Yellow Men by putting their Emperor diplomatically into her pocket; but if once the signal were given for a general division, Russia at most could not hope to come out with more than one-half of the spoil. Not annexation, but ascendency, is the true policy for the ambitious Muscovite. The stars in their course seem to be fighting so hard for Russia that the Russians do not need to fight for themselves. Their only policy needs to be "Hands Off," for by the nature of things Pekin and Constantinople will every year tend to become more and more the seats of mediatised sovereigns who, in time, will have no more foreign policy of their own than have Holkar or Scindia, or any other of our great native feudatories. All this, however, might be spoiled if any impatient philanthropic English Ministry were to precipitate the general overturn by too urgent insistence on an immediate reform. The policy of Russia must therefore, of necessity, be intensely conservative. It is a case of the poacher turned gamekeeper. The French Feverland. The French continue to struggle forin ward in Madagascar. The Republic sent 15,000 men in a perfectly equipped expedition to chastise the Hovas, and to assert the majesty of France in their capital. The expedition was equipped to fight the Hovas; it was not prepared to contend against the only effective ally upon whose help their enemies confidently relied. The fever of the lowlands, through which the expedition had to force its way, has cost France in invalided soldiers one-half of her expedition. Every letter from the front tells a ghastly story of human suffering. No work could be got out of the native tribes. Coolies were imported and worked to death, while the wretched soldiers, toiling hard under a tropical sun in making roads through marshes heavy with malaria, went down like rotten sheep. Many of them went mad, and wandered about the camp pleased with the happy delusion that they were the own pet schemes than to promote the safety of the 1 'Spain's Spain makes no progress in reducing the trouble in rebellion in Cuba. To all appeals for Cuba. the adoption of a more conciliatory policy the Spanish Government, replies replies by calling out, "More and yet more troops!" It is quite possible that they may have an army of 100,000 men employed in terrorising the Cubans. Meantime Cuban sympathisers are busy at work in the United States and in the neighbouring republics. The Government of Mexico propose to recognise them as belligerents, and yesterday a great mass meeting was held in Chicago, with the sympathy and support of the Mayor, Mr. Swift, the Governor of the State of Illinois, and other representative men, which passed enthusiastic resolutions in favour of recognising the Cuban insurgents as belligerents, and did their best to compel the Government of Washington to do what it could, consistent with neutrality, on behalf of Cuban independence. This is only another straw showing how ready a large section of American citizens are to flaunt the flag when any European Power is endeavouring even hold its own in the western hemi to The Irish All the squalid horrors of the feverstricken French camp pale, however, into insignificance beside the picture which sphere. the expedition affords of the chaos prevailing in the high places of the French Government. It is frankly admitted by the Parisian press that the three Government departments-that of the Ministry of War, the Ministry of Marine, and the Ministry of Colonies have been all at sixes and sevens, each more anxious to push its own men and carry out its Another meeting that was held last Convention month at Chicago, under the presidency at Chicago. of Mr. Finerty, was directed against this country. Chicago has always been the centre of the advanced Irish revolutionists. It was from that city that most of the dynamitards came over to England on their mission of vengeance. It was the appropriate place for the Irish Americans to proclaim a policy of revolution, and to demand that the Irish race throughout the world should prepare for action against the British Empire, It is the fashion to belittle and deride the Irish convention in Chicago, but it is significant as a formal notification of the fact that the result of last general election has been accepted by Irish patriots outside Ireland, where they are much more numerous and more influential, than those who are left in their native land, that for the present the policy of constitutional agitation is played out, and the day of the dagger and of dynamite has returned. Nothing was said of, either of those weapons at Chicago, but as there is no chance of meeting England in the open field, the policy recommended by the convention means either assassination and outrage, or it is a mere stroke in the water. Selling At present, however, the threats of the Ireland to Irish revolutionists have hardly received the Pope. the attention, of a hearing. The immediate difficulty in Ireland is much more serious. Ministers are committed to a Land Bill, but they can take over Mr. Morley's, patch it up a bit, and pass it off as their own. The real crux comes when they have to decide how far they have to sell the Irish nation into the hands of the priests. The Catholic vote helped to put the Unionists in power, and Rome will require, to be paid for her services. It is understood will establish and endow a Catholic University that Ministers in Ireland, and will practically re-model the educational system of the country in accordance with the wishes of the priests. will have to grin and bear it. west, the whole of the schools hands of the Catholic Church. by no means improbable result of the policy to which Ministers are committed by their devotion to deno minational education and their obligations to the hierarchy. Thus we are going to have Rome Rule as the alternative to Home Rule. sary, but it is not surprising that some stalwart It may be necesProtestants, who have seen how Rome Rule works in Belgium and Quebec, have many searchings of heart when they think of the price that has to be paid in Ireland for the defeat of Home Rule. A Threatened War. In the south and the As if we had not sufficient to occupy Ashantee ourselves with at home, there is an ugly report from the West, Coast of Africa that we may have to prepare for another Ashantee expedition. It would seem almost as if there were 293 some connection between the horoscope of Lord Wolseley and the Ashantee kingdom. Lord Wolseley won his first distinguished success by leading the expedition which captured and burnt Coomassie in 1873; and now, almost on the very day when he left Dublin to assume the duties of Commander-in-Chief, comes the news that another war with Ashantee is considered almost inevitable. This is a matter which will lie within Mr. Chamberlain's province, and as the probability is that "Joe" will stand no nonsense, we may be committed to another little war before we know where we are. France. All these things, however, are but fleaRussia and bites compared with the possibility of a sudden breach with France. Last month the French held their autumn manœuvres upon a gigantic scale, almost within gunshot of the insignificant compared with the political demonstraGerman frontier. But the military operations were Dragomiroff, representing the Russian army, was the tions for which they afforded the excuse. who is virtually vice-Tzar, seemed to supply the General hero of the day, while the arrival of Prince Lobanoff, crowning demonstration of the reality of the RussoFrench alliance. Prince Lobanoff has been some time in France, and has been closeted with the French Minister for Foreign Affairs. What business they discussed is not known. It is not believed they simply met as historians, but rather as the makers of history yet to come, De Witte а Prince Lobanoff is a gentleman and a and statesman who, despite his age, seems Chamberlain, to hold the reins of power with pretty firm grip. De Witte, his colleague, is Minister of Finance, and a much more dangerous and much less reputable politician... What the two improbable that they will wantonly precipitate war; between them will make of Russian policy in the next twelve months, it is difficult to say, but it is on the contrary, there is every reason to believe that they will utilise the rapprochement with France to the uttermost for the purpose of emptying the French stocking. The Alliance, so long as it is confined to the diplomatic field as financial, is as good as a gold mine to Russia. The rumour has been started that, strong in the strength of his access to the French stocking, De Witte has conceived the daring scheme of making Russia guarantor-general of all the debts of all her feudatories. The success of the Chinese Loan is said to have encouraged him to believe that by undersigning the Servian, Montenegrin, and Bulgarian Bonds, he can practically establish ́: Let me shave off your beard. For twenty-five years you have graciously hidden your beautiful face. Your Rome no longer exists; nevertheless, make yourself beautiful in these days, which are en 1ête for me, and everybody rushes to see your Vatican, my Colosseum, and the Quirinal, with Crispi as guard. Russian influence in the Balkan peninsula upon a foundation firmer than that of arms or of religion. It may be. But if it is, there is one man in Great Britain who will probably see in her action a hint which may bring about a federation of the British Empire on a somewhat similar basis. There is some resemblance between Mr. Chamberlain and M. de Witte, and there is no doubt that a British Imperial guarantee for Colonial debt would be a master stroke of policy that naturally would commend itself to our municipal statesman. While France and Russia lying low. Austria has been preoccupied with the victory of the anti-Semites in the Vienna elections. Germany last month celebrated, with great demonstrations of enthusiasm, the twenty-fifth anniversary of Sedan, while the Italians with equal heartiness celebrated the twenty-fifth anniversary of the occupation of Rome. Crispi signalised the Roman demonstration by the delivery of an eloquent and powerful onslaught upon the policy of the Pope, who, although secure in his spiritual sovereignty, continues to cherish vain hopes of the restoration of the temporal power. Crispi spoke wisely and well, but the spectacle of Crispi solemnly reproving Leo XIII. for worldly ambition is rather rich. The Pope is in a very difficult positionhow difficult no one knows but himself; all that outsiders can see is that he has played a very delicate game with extraordinary tact and patience. Let us hope that he may never be exposed to the crucial test of having to face the problems that would be precipitated by a great European war. International Yachting. It used to be the fashion to sneer at the absorbing interest which was taken by the Greeks of the old Empire in the contest of the circus. Gibbon, however, would hardly care to point his sarcasm at the expense of the Byzantines were he living to-day, for millions of Englishmen, face to face with all the immense questions which involve the fate of empires, have been so pre-occupied with the yacht races for the American Cup as hardly to spare a thought for Lord anything else. Dunraven built a yacht A WIN AND A PROTEST. the members of the Triple Alliance are that I'm hanged if I like your way of yachting.". [October 5, 1895. JOHN TO JONATHAN: "Yes, you've beat me fair enough on the running path; but for al after his own design, named it Valkyrie III., and challenged the Americans to defend their right to the American Cup. This Cup must be sailed for according to the provisions of the Trust Deed of the New York Yacht Club. The Defender having defeated all rivals among American yachts, was selected to represent the American yachtsmen in the international contest. The course, being comparatively close to one of the greatest cities in the world, was crowded with a flotilla of steam-boats, carrying sightseers. As there is no law, divine or human, by which steam-boats full of sightseers can be kept from trespassing on an ocean course over which the yachts are to sail, the first two races-for ortoq dusiflib yov & ni nd Is loauid, and awon JOHN BULL: "H'if they'd let me disable 'im, blawst me bloomin' h'eyes h'if h'I don't think h'I could have done 'im don'tcherknow!" the Cup goes to the winner of the best five-were sailed with considerable peril to the respective yachts. On the first day there was a fair start, and the Valkyrie was fairly beaten by the American yacht. Both boats, however, suffered from the eagerness of the attendant steam-boats to see the races from start to finish. On the second day the Valkyrie, at the moment of starting, fouled the Defender, injuring her top-mast, and rendering it impossible for her to spread her full canvas. Notwithstanding this, the Defender hoisted a protest flag and went on with the race. The Valkyrie succeeded in distancing her crippled antagonist, and was the first to pass the winning-post. The race was claimed by the Defender on account of the foul, and the committee, after due deliberation, decided that the claim was just. Before the decision was closed Lord Dunraven handed a letter to the committee in which he protested against having to endanger the lives of his men by sailing over a course crowded by attendant steamboats. Unless they took certain drastic precautions against a repetition of such conduct on the part of the steamers, he declared his determination not to sail the course again. The committee decided they could neither shift the course nor take the precautions he suggested. Thereupon, when the third race came to be sailed Lord Dunraven merely crossed the line with his yacht and then withdrew. The Defender covered the course followed by the mob of steam-boats, and having won three out of five of the races, secured the Cup once more for America. All this is very simple and easy to be The gain and loss of such understood. Similar disputes are of contests. 1 constant occurrence in all sports. But as a rule no one takes any notice beyond those immediately concerned. On this occasion, however, the fact that the two yachts represented two nations let loose a good deal of ill-feeling which now looked at, even at this short distance of time, seems both petty and miserably exaggerated. So far as an impartial Englishman can judge from accounts published by eye-witnesses, there seems to be no doubt that the Defender was the better boat. She beat the Valkyrie the first day with ease, and the second day was rapidly gaining upon her at the close of the race, notwithstanding her crippled condition. If the two yachts had sailed in mid-ocean without any spectators excepting those in the umpire's boat, it is probable the result would have been the same, and the Americans were fairly entitled to their victory. But, the Americans themselves being the judges, there was ample ground for Lord Dunraven's protest against the way in which the yachts were interfered with by the steamers. And it was the worst of bad taste and ill-feeling to hold him up to ridiculeand contempt simply because he did not consider it safe to risk the lives of his men in rushing over the course which no one could keep clear. Imagine the Derby run at Epsom with the miscellaneous crowd of sightseers meandering on the course through which the horses come thundering down to the winning-post! But people who are excited over a race or a fight seldom take much pains to keep cool heads or civil tongues, and for a few days there was a rather ugly slanging match between the meaner champions of the respective boats, which afforded an unpleasant example of what may be regarded as the latent instincts of the worst tempered of both nations. |