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There is, however, nothing new in this exhibition of Turkish policy. These massacres of Christians are periodical in Turkey; and they are never the result of local fanaticism; they are invariably organised and ordered by the Sultan and his ministers, for the purpose of keeping down the Christian population. Abject cowardice has made this Sultan more recklessly ferocious than his predecessors: that is all. The policy is the same, having at one time Greece for its theatre; then Syria; then Bulgaria and the Herzegovina; then Armenia. It is a deliberate system of pollarding the various Christian communities as each threatens to overtop its Mussulman neighbours in population and prosperity.

As to "abject cowardice" and recklessness of ferocity, those are points on which it is permitted to differ from Mr. MacColl. The present Sultan is like his ancestors. As they did, so does he. The massacre of Scio was quite as horrible as those of Sasun, and the horrors of Batak throw those of Erzeroum into the shade.

THE SULTAN'S SHARE IN THE ATROCITIES. I am not wishing to defend the atrocities. They are damnable enough in all conscience. Nor do I for a moment wish to imply that Abdul Hamid is not responsible for them. He is as responsible for them as a tiger is for its stripes and its carnivorous appetite. These things are of the essence of Turkish rule. Mr. MacColl believes that the Sultan is directly personally responsible for the massacres. He says:

In my pamphlet on "England's Responsibility towards Armenia," and in an article in this month's Contemporary Review, I have proved, by an overwhelming mass of official evidence, that Abdul Hamid has been engaged for four years in carefully maturing his plans for the perpetration of the horrors which have lately roused,the indignation of the civilised world. He it is who is responsible, not the Kurds and Turks, who have only been the instruments of his cruelty.

Possibly in the inner arcanum of his own conscience I doubt whether Abdul Hamid would even desire to repel this accusation. Probably he feels more chagrined at the incompleteness of his work, than grieved because of the blood already shed.

THE ARMING OF THE KURDS.

There is little doubt but that in many cases the orders to kill emanated from the Sultan. But the worst sufferings inflicted upon the Armenians were due to the arming of the Kurds. Mr. Richard Davey, writing before the present outbreak, said of the Hamedyeh, as the Kurdish irregulars are named after the Sultan, their enrolment was one of the greatest mistakes ever made:

The Sultan doubtless had in his mind the success of the Russian Emperor with his Cossack regiments, when he gave permission for these barbarians to be supplied with uniforms and arms. The only distinction they obtained in the war of 1877 was for their blood-curdling atrocities on the poor wretches who fell into their hands, and their diabolical mutilation of the dead. Their headquarters are at Melaigerd, on the Eastern Euphrates, and there are about thirty regiments of them registered in the area of the plateau, each regiment consisting of from five hundred to six hundred men. They will not, and possibly cannot, accept discipline, and their natural savageness is rendered ten times more dreadful when they are provided with modern arms and ammunition and taught how to use them.

THE ACTION OF THE TURKISH SOLDIERY.

These gentry are responsible for much. But some of the later massacres were the work of the Turkish soldiers. The Times correspondent in Erzeroum, writing after the Armenians had been slaughtered in that city, gave a very

vivid account of the matter-of-fact way in which the massacre had been ordered and executed. He says:

The following is a conversation I had with the Turkish soldier who was one of three guarding our door after the affair. "Where were you when this thing commenced?" Answer: "In the barracks, playing cards. We were all called out by a signal from the bugle and drawn up in line. Our officer then said to us, 'Sharpen your swords; to-day you are to kill Armenians wherever you find them for six hours; after that you are to stop, and the blood of any Armenian you kill after this is my blood; the Armenians have broken into the Serai.' At the 'given signal, which was just after noon," he said, "the troops started for the Serai. We wondered how the Armenians could get into the Serai. When we arrived there we did not find any Armenians with arms, and I saw only one shot fired at us by an Armenian, We were ordered to kill every Armenian we saw, just as it was at Sasun," continued this soldier, who had been at Sasun; "if we tried to save any Armenian friend, our commanding officer ordered us to kill him; we were to spare no one." Other soldiers told pretty much the same story. The soldiers evidently had no great relish for their horrible work, but once begun they did it thoroughly and brutally.

Europe is of course horrified at this evidence of massacre organised as a Government department. But it is all in the regular way of business with the Turk. And England, who through Lord Beaconsfield and Lord Salisbury at Berlin in 1878, insisted upon intervening to save the Turk from the doom he so richly merited, is more guilty than the Sultan, who but acts according to his lights, and does as other Sultans have done before him.

THE UNHAPPY ARMENIANS.

There is no need for me at this time of day to go over the dismal story of bloodshed and outrage with which we are all so painfully familiar through the newspapers and magazines. There is nothing new about them. To the unfortunate population most concerned it is a very old story. Here is what St. Chrysostom said of the Armenian massacres in his day, while the Turk as yet was not, and there was no Sultan to organise the Kurds into Hamedyeh :

Like ferocious beasts, they (the Kurds) fell upon the unhappy inhabitants of Armenia and devoured them. Trouble and disorder are everywhere. Hundreds of men, women and children have been massacred; others have been frozen to death. The towns and villages are desolated; everywhere you see blood; everywhere you hear the groans of the dying, the shouts of the victors, and the sobs and the tears of the vanquished.

Yet for all that the Armenians, like Israel in Egypt, have proved to be more than a match for their would-be destroyers. A race as tough as the Armenian takes a good deal of killing. They are like the Irish in one respect, like the Jews in another. In the Caucasus, by sheer dint of breeding and of craft, they have converted Tiflis into an Armenian city, and rule it as the Irish rule New York. The Armenian, we may depend upon it, may be harried and massacred, but he cannot be exterminated. He is as indestructible as the Jew. We need have no fear as to his disappearance from Western Asia.

THE SULTAN AS CHIEF CONSTABLE OF THE EAST.

In dealing with these Eastern races we should never forget that the Sultan and the Turks, upon whose scimitars he relies, savages though they may be, are the only savages in Western Asia over whom we can exercise some degree of influence. The Sultan is a very poor policeman, but he is the only policeman there is. Granting that he is intrinsically as barbarous and ruthless at heart as any

Kurdish chieftain whom he has enrolled in the Hamedyeh, he possesses three qualifications for the post of Constable of the East which no other savage in those parts can claim. First, he is the strongest; second, he is the easiest got at; and, third, he is in possession. Now we must either put some one else in his place or make the best of him. The great sin of England in the past has been that out of an insane jealousy of Russia she not only refused to put any one else in place of the Turk, but when, as in Macedonia and in Western Armenia, whole provinces were delivered from her yoke, she made it a supreme object of her policy to restore the rule of the Turk in regions from which it had been ejected by the Russians. But even if England had taken the other line and had united with Russia

best available policeman for the lawless native_tribes which inhabit the Ottoman Empire. But if the Powers had been more on the alert-if, without troubling themselves about the Sultan's ideas, they had adopted a definite and decided policy of their own-they might have kept him going as a tolerable Chief Constable, and have warned him off relapsing into the unregenerate ways of Amurath and Bajazet. For instance, if instead of pottering on about more or less fantastic schemes of reform, they bad adopted the line taken by M. Caulbon when the French Consulate was threatened at Diarbekir, the Armenian massacres would never have assumed the dimensions which they were permitted to attain. M. Caulbon sent word to the Sultan, that if the French Consulate were attacked he would demand the head of the Governor, and the French

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THE SULTAN: "Allah be praised!-Now that they 've got another Sick Man' maybe they 'll let up on me a little!"

in narrowing down the area of Ottoman domination, there would still have remained a wide region within which the Turk was the only possible Chief Constable. The problem therefore would have been the same then as now, although it would have affected a smaller area of territory. That problem is in brief this. How far can Europe utilise a sovereign who regards himself as the Shadow of God on Earth and Commander of the Faithful, as Chief Constable of Christendom in Western Asia and Eastern Europe?

WHAT THE POWERS MIGHT HAVE DONE.

If the Powers had frankly faced this question the Sultan would never have got so completely out of hand as he has done these last two years. Abdu! Hamid, full of confidence in his position of Vicegerent of Allah, can never be got to recognise the fact that he is only allowed to rule because the infidels of Europe regard him as the

fleet would occupy Alexandria to await the arrival of that head. Within a few hours after the receipt of that ultimatum Diarbekir was as quiet as Bedford. That is the only kind of message the Sultan can understand. He is always trying it on, endeavouring to revert to the old massacring methods of his forebears, and he needs to be headed off with hot iron. In no other way can he be utilised as a possible Chief Constable.

THE ONLY SOUND POLICY.

The main outlines of a sound policy in Turkey are quite clear. First, never lose any opportunity, whether by cession outright or by the evidence of autonomous provincial governments, to exclude as much territory and as many people as possible from the rule of the pashas; and, secondly, within the area which must perforce be left under their sway, keep them under constant surveillance, to check with peremptory pressure at Constanti

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nople the first incipient effort of the local authorities to substitute for the role of Chief Constable of Christendom the time-honoured part of massacrer of the Infidel. The Sultan will always prefer the latter rôle, and he must not be blamed for wishing to act according to his nature and according to his religion. He must be reckoned with as a constant force that, like a mountain torrent, will always attempt to tear away the dam which is thrown across its bed. But the maintenance of the dam is the conditio sine qua non of the utilisation of the torrent.

A TOUGH OLD EMPIRE.

It is of course always on the cards that the Sultan may go mad, or be deposed, or that the Ottoman Empire may finally burst up. But the chances are against it. Long ago an eminent French statesman remarked to Nassau Senior, "Don't be misled into believing that the Ottoman Empire is going to pieces. It will outlast my time and yours. These old Empires are like the oldfashioned carts you meet in remote country districts. They groan, they creak, they seem as if at any moment they would fly to pieces, but at the end of the day the cart is still there. As it is with old carts so it is with old Empires. They may appear to be on the very verge of extinction, but the toughness and the vitality that has lasted for centuries will carry them through.' Even if Abdul Hamid were to be assassinated, were to be deposed, the Sultanate would continue. Reschad, the heir apparent, would be summoned from the obscurity of his secluded palace to mount the throne of Ottoman, and Europe would be confronted with the same old problem, in which nothing would be changed save the person of the Grand Turk.

THE UNION OF EUROPE INDISPENSABLE.

Abdul Hamid is at least fully alive as to the necessity of conciliating the public opinion of Europe. His remarkable message to Lord Salisbury is only the latest illustration of his anxiety to be well spoken of in the West. That anxiety will continue as long as the Powers stand together. The moment the Concert of Europe is disturbed, the Sultan feels free to do as he pleases. Only by union among the Powers can he be permanently reduced to his proper role of Chief Constable. The journalists who sow dissensions and ferment ill feeling between the Powers, are the most effective agents for converting the Sultan from a Chief Constable into a Lord of Misrule and Master of Massacre. It is as sport to the fools of Fleet Street to do mischief, but the penalty is paid for their folly by the luckless Armeniaus tortured in Turkish dungeons, and the wretched girls outraged to death by the light of their blazing homes. The problem of utilising a Moslem as policeman, when his conscience compels him not to do constabulary duty in favour of the infidel, is very difficult. But it is not insoluble. And a plain simple rule, that any massacre will be followed by the occupation of a Turkish fort until justice is done and reparation made, would probably be more efficacious than anything else in restraining the aboriginal savage of Ottoman within decent limits until such time as we can put something better in his place.

O FOR AN AMERICAN SYNDICATE!

I never hear anything about the desolation of Western Asia without recalling the famous observation of Richard Cobden, who, after travelling in the East, came back lamenting that these fertile regions could not be placed in the hands of an American syndicate. And the more I think over the chaos of the East, the more clearly does it appear that the United States of the Western world may

yet be the destined instrument by which these wasted lands may be restored to the use of mankind. The idea seems chimerical, especially to Americans. But, the Texan judge who represents Uncle Sam at Constantinople has already been threatening to bring up the American cruisers to the Bosphorus to demand the head of the Vali if the hair of the head of an American missionary in Asiatic Turkey is injured. The American missionaries are everywhere in Asiatic Turkey. They are the one hope of the country. The Robert College at Constantinople made Bulgaria possible. Without the young men trained by the American missionaries the Bulgarian movement would never have attained such dimensions as to render the Principality a possibility. What the Robert College has done for Bulgaria other American seminaries are doing for Armenia, for Asia Minor, for Syria. The American leaven is leavening the whole lump. Sooner or later an American missionary is certain to be picturesquely killed, possibly impaled. And when that happens the guns of the American men-of-war will be turned upon the Yildiz Kiosk and the American blue-jackets will be landed in Constantinople, as they were in Alexandria, to maintain order and prevent the destruction of the city. If only the American flag could be hoisted over the Porte, Europe would never bid it come down. The United States are the only power in the world who could be trusted to occupy Constantinople. This, it may be said, belongs to the realm of fantasy. But the realm of fantasy is often the hatching-ground of many of the most notable designs of providence.

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE.

What seems more likely is that the United States of Europe will be developed out of the European Concert by the very difficulties and dangers arising out of the liquidation of the affairs of the Ottoman Empire. It is usually out of appalling problems that beneficial reforms are evolved. Only when a very palpable devil confronts Christian does he gird up his loins for the victorious conflict. And here in the East we have a palpable devil indeed, which can only be cast out by concerted action. The jealousies, the rivalries, the hatred of the Christian powers enable 1 the Turk to come into Europe. The same evil passions have kept him there, and now that he is tottering on the edge of the abyss, he will involve all Europe in a catastrophe unless these same jealousies and rivalries can be overcome by a deep sense of the incalculable perils attending independent action. In the European Concert we have the germ of the federation of the Continent. It has hitherto been chiefly deliberative; it must now become executive. The Ottoman Empire can be partitioned provisionally. Russia can occupy and administer Armenia as far as Trebizond and Erzeroum. Austria can come to Salonica. Italy to Albania. France can occupy Syria. But there will remain a vast remnant where the Sultan must rule and reign. In this region the Powers must act as a unit for purposes of supervision and control. The International Commission of Public Debt affords us an example of how it can be done. We want another International Commission, not of the public debt, but of the public safety. And of that International Commission the Sultan, either Abdul Hamid or another, will of necessity be the figure-head. And the peace of the world depends chiefly upon how far he can be induced or compelled loyally to fulfil that role.

NOTE.-The maps accompanying this article show the flow an ebb of the tile of Ottom in conquest. The drying up of the river Euphrates, as it was describe 1 in Newton's Dissertatia on the Prophecies," has procee led apa e since the tide began to turn.

THE ANGLO-RUSSIAN ALLIANCE. WHY IT IS NECESSARY, AND HOW IT SHOULD BE FORMED. IT is very satisfactory to find the world in general waking up to a recognition of a truth which you have been preaching in season and out of season for a quarter of a century. At the same time it is difficult to refrain from a passing regret that John Bull should be so exceedingly slow in the uptake. Never to discover that it looks like rain until after it fairly pours, is not very creditable to our intelligence. Even now, although there is an astonishing agreement as to the need of a Russian alliance in the press, it is doubtful whether Downing Street is fully alive to the urgency of the situation.

THE ARGUMENT FROM 1920.

Mr. E. T. Dillon, who on this occasion prefers to write anonymously, contributes a very weighty, thoughtful paper to the Contemporary Review for December, entitled 1920." In that year he calculates the English-speaking nations will number 180 millions, and will govern a subject population of 400 or 500 millions in India and elsewhere. China will come next with 500 millions, then Russia with 150,000,000 to 200,000,000. No other nation will exceed 100,000,000. Dr. Dillon says:—

About the year 1920, or well within the prospects of life of the youngest members of our present House of Commons, the population of Germany is likely to be at least 60 per cent. higher than that of France, and may easily be double as high. The white population of Russia will probably be more than double that of Germany and may approximately equal that of the Anglian or English-speaking race. Hence it follows that, as above stated, the Anglian and Slav races are the great coming Powers and seemed destined to divide the empire of the world.

This being the case, he asks naturally:—

Why not divide the primacy of the world amicably between us? Why not come to a full, frank, and friendly understanding and agreement with Russia on all outstanding questions between us, and consistently maintain this attitude henceforward as a cardinal point in our foreign policy?

He thinks the future of the English-speaking race will largely be outside England:

The cardinal fact is that in thirty years' time the white population outside the British Isles will be not less than thirty millions, or a good three-quarters of the whole population of the British Isles at present.

This estimate is likely to be exceeded if Japanese and Chinese competition were to force our people to seek fresh fields and pastures new. This he does not think unlikely :

The general outlook for the future is very threatening for Great Britain, whose prosperity is so largely based upon and bound up with manufacturing supremacy and commercial success. We seem likely to be underbid by Eastern competition, first in all the Eastern markets, and then, in the natural and inevitable course of things, in all the world's markets. Concurrently with this we have to face a growing competition from the nations of Europe and from the United States. If so, the whole vast fabric of our commercial greatness which we have laboriously built up may gradually be undermined, and may even by-and-by be swept away.

He would not hurry up the Chinese, and he would make a firm fighting alliance with Russia. Failing that,

he thinks we ought to spend twenty-five millions a year on our navy. That is the price of our independence :

If not, we should apparently, as the only alternative, seek a strong alliance, preferably with Russia as the great coming Power, and submit to all the inevitable and admitted drawbacks inherent in alliances. The independent attitude has many advantages, no doubt, but it will be extremely perilous without the overwhelming naval strength. Failing this, we shall very probably see the British Empire broken up before long, as the after-consequence of a disastrous war which will show our Colonies that, while committing them by the Imperial connection to all hazards of war, we are not strong enough to protect them. The hegemony of the scattered fractions of our race will then fall naturally and almost inevitably to the United States, and Great Britain proper will be reduced to the level of a third-rate Power. But should we, to avoid such contingencies, make up our minds to the necessary financial sacrifices for our fleet, I repeat that the burden will be only for one generation.

IS THE ALLIANCE NOT WORTH CONSTANTINOPLE? Mr. A. J. Wilson, in the Investors' Review, is all for the Russian alliance in the East. But in the Far East he is rather on the other side of the fence. Alliances, however, cannot be limited to one end of the Asiatic continent, so as to leave the allies free to fight each other at the other end. This, however, is Mr. Wilson's view of the

case:

We feel more and more convinced that the view of the Spectator is the right one. We ought to be on the side of Russia in this business, and make that great aggregation of tribes our friend. If it is the desire of the Russians to possess Constantinople, as it unquestionably is, it is no longer our business to oppose her; no good interest of ours is furthered by opposition. If she should have to fight for her new dominion, it should be our care that it is not with us. But the probability is that there will be nothing but domestic bickerings if we do not drift into a warlike attitude. Austria would be encouraged to draw the sword if we did; hardly otherwise. In the interests of the world's peace, then, it is of the utmost moment that we should come to a speedy understanding with Russia. The European concert" will soon else become little better than the farce which precedes the tragedy.

Although Mr. Wilson would give up Constantinople, he clings to China. He says:—

Once permit Russia to establish herself in Northern China, and the fate of that empire and of our commerce there-of India's as well-is at her mercy. Some have thought we have advocated war in that distant region to redress the balance in Europe. Our thoughts went not so far. War is, to us, the most horrible calamity that can overtake mankind. What we did advocate was a warlike attitude towards the Chinese mandarins, and a compact with Japan against Russian aggression, such as might avert a frightful struggle with Russia in the not distant future. We owe it to the Japanese, to the future of our Oriental commerce, to the prosperity of India, ay, to the miserably squeezed inhabitants of China itself, to stand up for our rights out there and refuse to be fooled.

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RUSSIA THE HEIR OF NORTHERN CHINA. Despite Mr. Wilson's gloomy prognostications as to the consequences of Russian ascendency in Northern China, Mr. Demetrius Boulger, writing in the Contemporary Review for December, declares that no human power can

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