PREFACE THE twentieth century is confronted by conditions which are new in the history of the world, which concern the nations in general and the United States in particular. In this book the subject of Expansion is discussed in the light of these new conditions. Students of civilization are attaching more importance to physical conditions now than formerly. Says Professor William G. Sumner of Yale University: "The notion that progress proceeds in the first instance from intellectual or moral stimuli, or that progress is really something in the world of thought, and not of sense, has led to the most disappointing and abortive efforts to teach and elevate inferior races or neglected classes. The ancestors of the present civilized races did not win their civilization by any such path. They built it up through centuries of toil from a foundation of surplus material means, which they won through improvements in the industrial arts and in the economic organization." Civilization is shaped by as many causes as there are motives to which men are susceptible, but industry— the way in which men get their living—is dominant with the million. Man is capable of reaching a spiritual elevation such that he is controlled by the loftiest motives. He has toiled for years in the galley; he has rotted in the dungeon; he has charred at the stake, rather than speak the word which would have liberated his body and chained his spirit. He has shown himself gloriously superior to all outward conditions-to all that appeals to the flesh. But these are the shining spirits that have revealed the splendid possibilities of human nature; they represent the potential rather than the actual in the multitude. As yet the great bulk of mankind live on the physical plane; and, therefore, physical conditions, as yet, exert the most powerful influences in shaping civilization. The movement is upward, and the greater altitudes will surely be gained. We must keep the noblest ideals constantly in mind and unceasingly struggle toward them; but as sober men, dealing with present facts, we must acknowledge that physical conditions still dominate the nations. New physical conditions and the industrial revolution have created a new situation, and are producing a new world life, which is profoundly changing national relations and which must inevitably change national policies. I am indebted to Senator William P. Frye for public documents kindly sent, and for information furnished. I desire also to acknowledge the courtesy of Captain A. T. Mahan, the eminent writer on naval subjects, who read several chapters of the book which traverse the field in which he is acknowledged to be the highest authority, and who was so good as to give me the benefit of his valuable criticism. NEW YORK, September, 1900. 10 J. S. CHAPTER I EXHAUSTION OF OUR ARABLE PUBLIC LANDS...... Arable lands taken. Vacant government lands. Increase of capital in one generation. Decreas- 2. Meaning to the world. Westward migrations CHAPTER II OUR NEW MANUFACTURING SUPREMACY. Three steps conquering the home market, the We command the conditions of permanent suc- Our commerce to be carried in American bot- PAGE 17 40 FOREIGN MARKETS A NEW NECESSITY. Influence of machinery. Its multiplication. The substitution of mechanical for muscular power. Half-way to the industrial millennium. Problem of production solved; that of distribution awaits solution. Production has increased more rapidly than population. Hon. Carroll D. Wright quoted. Enlargement of manufacturing plant inevitable. Congestion must follow failure to in- crease foreign markets. New inventions throw The cry of applying machinery to agriculture and of making it a part of organized industry. The artisan out of work may not become a farmer, but Lord Macaulay's "appeal to the twentieth cen- tury." China looking backward for at least twenty- seven centuries. Effect of isolation. Influence of Chino-Japanese war. The Chinese people a great Changes since 1840. Railroads. Cotton fac- tories. Changing habits and industries shown by Effects of China's awakening. China's re- sources. Influence of railways; India's experi- ence. Colquhoun quoted. Introduction of ma- chinery. It creates commerce and elevates Effect on the United States. Commerce present and prospective. Five new Americas. Wu Ting- |