THE END NOT YET IN

SIGHT.

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A WRITER in the Deutsche Revue for December, who signs his article von G.," assures us the end of the war is still far distant. He recapitulates the different objects which the Allies set out to attain in terms similar to those adopted by Field-Marshal von Wannisch in another article in the same review, and then asks: What prospect is there of the Allies realising their various ends? His answer is, the Allies are farther off than ever from any success. The military campaigns have failed, but the writer is forced to admit that England is not yet broken on the sea. German trade has been completely crippled and Germany has also been seriously injured in her colonies. Meanwhile, the British Fleet, thanks to its cautious abdication, is practically undamaged. England, therefore, has suffered the least; apart from her, the other Allies have good cause to cherish ideas of peace. From the military point of view they are defeated. The Germans are in the country of the Allies, but the Allies are not in Germany, for in this connection Galicia and Alsace are not worth considering.

Jugend.)

faithful and brave ally, Turkey, must be preserved.

It is through Egypt that the road to London lies. In this direction the interests of Germany and Turkey are closely associated, for Turkey would only be too glad to regain as a tributary State her old province. But it is in a changed ownership of the Suez Canal that Germany would like to break England's sea power. Such an enterprise must be of long duration. Still, the seizure of Serbia is the first step on that road. But to bring about a union of Constantinople with the Sinaitic Peninsula, apart from the branch line of the

Hedja railway, which runs from Samaria to the Sinaitic Peninsula, is according to modern ideas a very difficult problem. Yet it is absolutely essential to the destruction of England. But were that achieved the end of the war would still be far off. England, even in her Royal House, has proved such a deadly enemy to Germany. ever since the time of King Edward and also in this war, that a break with her is inevitable. If a final rupture with her does not take place, the trouble will drag on and lead sooner or later to a new military conflict. For that reason, it is fundamentally wrong to talk of peace before England has been considerably weakened. France and Italy cannot have their territorial demands satisfied, but they will continue to fight so long as England desires it, to the last man. A Russian revolution and England's defeat in Egypt would compel also France and Italy to sue for peace. But that will not happen soon. Germany can and will go on with the war, supported by the brilliant successes of her army and her submarines and in union with her Allies, till she has attained, not world-dominion as her enemies say, but her place in the sun.

[Munich.

Nevertheless we are still very far from the end of the war. The truth is, that after so many sacrifices of material and blood, the German people want a huge indemnity. At the present moment, however, it would be very difficult to get this, owing to the war being waged on so many fronts. Russia can continue the war for an indefinite period, and only a revolution would end it; till this happens the end of the war will not be in sight, so far as Russia is concerned. It is doubly hard to acknowledge this, for the interests of Germany's

commerce.

All this splendid organisation, industrial, commercial and financial, whose elements are so skilfully compacted, has been constructed for the purpose of conquering the foreign markets of the world. The results have tested its efficiency. In 1870 Germany con

trolled 7 per cent.; in 1890, 10 per cent.; and in 1910, 18 per cent. of the world's commerce. From 1870 to 1911 German exportations increased from 1,300 to 8,100 million marks. In 1911 the conquest of the European market seemed definitive. In

that year Germany's exportation in Europe reached a total of 6,100 millions of marks, while that of Great Britain was only 4,500 millions of marks. In the production of iron Germany had advanced to a proportion of 20 per cent. of the world's output, as against 18 per cent. for England; and had almost equalled the production of England in coal, claiming 20 per cent., as against 26 per cent., of the world's output.

Tugend.]

writer, Germany's marvellous productive power will remain, and he suggests that the bulk of German exports will be dumped into the States, and this he aptly describes as An Impending Danger to the Republic."

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This can only be averted by the restoration of á protective tariff. To the writer "This issue seems unavoidable," and the remedy appears to be in the direction of tightening central control. Present tendencies do not

[Munich.

If we inquire into the

MARS:

causes of these advances, we shall find that the primary cause was the absolute State control and direction of the industrial, commercial, and financial processes by which all the forces of the Empire were brought to their highest possible efficiency.

Direction and foresight have conquered ali obstacles, but the war will automatically rule German competition out of the markets controlled by the Entente, but, according to the

encourage the hope that this will be recognised :

We are proposing in this critical hour, when constructive statesmanship is needed as never before in our country's history, the destruction of our fundamental laws in order to give place to a medley of experiments of doubtful tendency. For deliberate, well-considered public action we are proposing the popular initiative, referendum, and recall; thus opening up a prospect of uncertainty and confusion in matters of legislation at a time when certainty and clearness are most needed.

Mr. Hill calls for a definite policy to enable America to keep her place in the coming stress :

We cannot afford to wait and see what will happen. We must have a scientific economic policy adapted to our national needs. In it must be included three essential elements: (1) It must protect the home industries that really need protection; (2) it must protect all our national rights on the high seas; and (3) it must protect American life and property wherever they legally exist. If our Republic is not prepared to do this, American citizenship has but little value. But if it is to offer this threefold protection, it will require for its support a revival of patriotism similar to that which reconstituted the integrity of the Union when it was exposed to the tests of the Civil War.

ITALY'S SILENT MINISTER. DR. DILLON'S survey in The Contemporary Review is mostly concerned with "Italy and the Triple Entente," and we have one more general view of the political arena which enables readers to revise their own viewpoint. Baron Sonnino is described as "the 'rought hewer of Italy's fortunes," and his quality of silence gives him a peculiar advantage in a world of talk. Dr. Dillon's description is flattering :—

Baron Sonnino, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, is a political Bayard. Like ex-Premier Luzzatti, he is the soul of honour. His word is equal to a Government bond. Hence with him thought is seldom speech, but speech is always truth. His besetting virtue is silence, and his growing malady anthropophobia. If Italians were taxed for superfluous talk, Baron Sonnino would go scot free. So solicitous is he about substance that he cares little for mere form. He vies with his present chief, who for many years was his partisan, in this, that, if M. Salandra can boast that he never wrote a book, Baron Sonnino can take credit to himself for having never delivered a speech, at least in the rhetorical sense of the word. Unlike men of the Italian race, he is not an orator, neither can he declaim. He often writes out what he wants to say and reads it to the Chamber. Those are all virtues which have little vogue in the political world of to-day. They are not even appreciated there. Indeed, Baron Sonnino has been severely blamed by his former friends and colleagues for cultivating them. It is perhaps less surprising on that account that he should have gradually restricted converse with the world, and his relations with his fellows to the absolutely necessary. The economy of time and effort which silence and solitude enable the Minister to effect is enormous. Cavillers point to its drawbacks. And truth compels us to admit that the most perilous of these is the duality always felt in a State where the rulers and the people are out of touch with each other. M. Sonnino's friends candidly make answer that every virtue carried beyond a certain point leads to its opposite. For in the moral as in the political world extremes meet.

But, on the other hand, the Italian Foreign Secretary has the rare advantage of political experience. He has exercised a noteworthy influence on the conduct of public affairs, and has seen at close quarters the working out of his own principal pet scheme. A financier by choice and temperament, Baron Sonnino has from an early stage of his career been a journalist, whose political interest at first centred in foreign affairs. And from that day to this he has never ceased to be a journalist when in Opposition and a boycotter of Pressmen when in power

Like all great men the Baron combines extreme characteristics; for, although he prudently avoids all risks, he is reputed to be "a much bolder and more enterprising man than the Premier."

ITALY AND GERMANY.

FEW people pretend to understand the peculiar relationships which seem to exist between Italy and Germany, and in the same article Dr. Dillon gives the following explanation :

Italy's attitude towards Germany, people complain, is singular and indefinable, and one seeks in vain for arguments by which it can be defended. For Germany was the prime mover of the present war, and it was against her specific savagery that the people of Italy rose up and put an end to neutrality. To attack Austria, therefore, while keeping peace with Germany, is to fire at the tiger's shadow while leaving the beast at large. And even from the narrowest Italian point of view the position taken up by King Victor's Government can hardly be made intelligible. For behind Austria, who is Italy's secular foe, stands Germany, without whose help she could do nothing. That Germany, had she willed it, could have moved the Habsburg Monarchy to give way to Baron Sonnino, who would then have been willing to renew the Triplice, is generally believed. That since then she has informally intimated her intention of accomplishing this under favourable circumstances after the war is rumoured and credited on grounds which I have not had occasion to examine. But that a convention between the two countries was concluded a few days before the war, and for the express purpose of favourably differentiating each other from all their respective ene mies, actual and potential, is a historical and a significant fact. On the eve of the rupture Germany and Italy agreed that each one would respect the property of the other, even if they should go to war. "Frightfulness was to be eliminated because of the pecuniary losses it would inflict on the Teutons. And since Italy entered the field against Austria she has continued to allow her law courts to be employed for the purpose of enforcing the payment of Italians' debts to Germans, and has permitted Italians to cover with their names the German mercury mines in which the Kaiser and his Foreign Secretary are principal shareholders. Brisk financial relations are carried on between the two countries openly, via Switzerland, and the German Government, it is affirmed, still subsidises regularly its trusty Italian agents, journalistic and other, through a paymaster in one of the principal cities.

"STARRING" OUR MAN

HOOD.

The English Review contains a special section devoted to "The War of Liberation." These articles cover a wide ground, and one of the most interesting is "The Proving of Democracy," by West Country Miner, who is outspoken in his condemnation of Manchester, by which word he signifies the narrow business outlook of a get-rich-quick community." The writer does not mince his words, and his suggestions are at least practicable if we are to attempt to meet our present difficulties in a manly spirit of self-denial. Here is the conclusion :

Let us be fair, let us be just. Let us in a united, overwhelming impulse of that national sacrifice for service which, short of a miracle, alone can save our nation, insist that this wrong shall cease, and that no man twice wounded shall again be sent out until every fit man has taken his turn at the Front. A register has been compiled of the unenlisted manhood of the nation; let it also be made of the enlisted manhood. Let the industrial production of the country be regulated by a committee chosen from the Presidents, past and present, of the great engineering and industrial societies and of the Chambers of Commerce.

At present labour is available for luxuries, when it is required for the production of muchneeded soda, sulphuric acid, and other war requirements. Let us organise jobs for our fit wounded until there is not an eligible “ starred man left who has not been to the Front. The national efficiency will increase, not decrease as at present, and the expenditure will be less; for the time has come for us to examine our consciences and to ask whether it is fair that any man in this country, whether Cabinet Minister, judge, professional expert, or artisan, should receive more for his services than the soldier in the trenches. No! the man who offers his life should receive higher reward than they who only offer their work or their advice.

It may not be practicable to insist that every man not in the trenches shall receive only 11d. a day plus allowance for dependants, but have we considered the reasonability and feasibility of enacting that no man, rich or poor, shall retain for his own use and profit more than 75 per cent. of his average (for as many years, but not exceeding five, as his own age is over eighteen) income prior to the war; but that, on the other hand, his commitments in the way of rent, taxes, standing charges, and the like shall be equally reduced?

The houseowner and householder both would receive or pay 75 per cent. only of the normal rent, and the reduction of income thus balances the

reduction of expenditure. As for necessities, the price of these will rapidly diminish when luxuries are no longer purchased-more men and more transport will be available for their productionand we shall no longer hear of men whose weekly incomes have been raised by 60s. crying out against a sixpence increase in rent, for not only will the old rent be reduced by 25 per cent., but the taxes also. Any exceptional cases can readily be met out of the accumulation of the 25 per cent. of the national income, plus present surplus thus obtained for the conduct of the war.

THE COMING CRASH. MANY are asking "How Long Can German Credit Hold Out?" and in The English Review Raymond Radclyffe essays the task of answering this very important query. A generation ago Germany was a poor country, and she has only been able to take her place amongst the leading nations by a universal system of credit. The ramifications of this system are explained by the writer, and he summarises the position to which Germany is now reduced :

Germany is mortgaged to the hilt. Its wealth has been guessed by Ballod at 270 milliards of marks. But who can say whether this is any sort of security for the load of mortgage under which the country groans? A thousand millions sterling of paper money has been added to the burden since the war began. Holders of land, property, stocks. shares, raw material, etc., etc., have gone to the Darlehnscasse and the Kriegsbank and taken up loans. The amount is not known and cannot be known till the war is over. Every available gold piece has been extracted from the public and placed in the Reichsbank. Every mark of scrip has been pawned with the banks for the purpose of applying for War Loan. The huge interest debt on the mortgages is paid in paper money, which now stands at 17 per cent. discount, and which must steadily depreciate as the Empire buys goods from Bulgaria, Turkey, Greece, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. These countries will in the end drain all the gold away.

Who can be surprised that the President of the Reichstag says Germany is prepared for peace? The Germans are shrewd. They have been living upon credit ever since 1870. They have been piling mortgage upon mortgage, bond upon bond, and they have been paying the interest by borrowing more money and by the profits made on the export trade. That profit has been cut off by the war. German export trade has been killed. Her merchant marine lies idle. Her factories only work for the Government, and take paper in exchange for services. The gigantic system of credits built up during the past twenty years has now brought its Nemesis. No nation can live upon credit.