the stores and yamens of the merchants. In the important coast points of Canton, Hong Kong, Amoy, Foochow, Shanghai, Cheefoo, and Tientsin, the proportion of able, wealthy, and prepossessing men is surprisingly large. In Bangkok, Siam, a score of Chinese merchants, rice and saw millers, worth over $1,000,000 each, called on me at the legation when I had the honor to be dean of the diplomatic corps, and with marked dignity, politeness, and forcible argument asked that I call a meeting of the corps to consider certain needed changes in the Siamese tariff. In Singapore, Hong Kong, and Shanghai are many men of means, education, and prominence who live in beautiful homes, send their children to the best schools, and are elected to the city councils. There is, moreover, throughout China a much larger element than generally known who are strongly in favor of a new regime and progress in the empire, but they keep quiet in ordinary times, although carrying on educational work in order to protect themselves against charges of sedition or arrest.

Labor in the large Chinese cities is organized to a degree that would surprise our labor leaders. There is not an able-bodied man that does not belong to some powerful society that controls and directs his movements. Some of the worst strikes on record have occurred among the coolies at Hong Kong and at Bangkok, and they are re spectively British and Siamese ports not in China.

This suggests one reason why General Otis' •rder keeping the Chinese out of the Philippines may not be altogether wise. They are undeniably needed for labor despite native prejudices against them, but there is no danger whatever of more Chinese coming to the Philippines than are actually required. The importation of Chinese into Manila, as into Bangkok, Singapore, Batavia, and all other Asiatic points outside of China, is regulated to a remarkable nicety by societies who have charge of the coining and going of men. The supply is invariably regulated to the demand so as not to make a glut in the labor market. Not one Chinaman leaves A moy, the principal point of departure for the Philippines, unless he is under the charge of some society. Likewise the return of Chinese laborers to China is regulated according to whether they are able to work and how much they have accumulated. There will be little ilanger of the Chinese overrunning the Philippines unless the natives die out, in which case they will be needed. In Siam they are an absolute necessity for labor and business, but they are not in the way of the natives. The conditions in Siam and the Philippines are almost identical. Mv views mav be at variance with

the able Philippine commissioners, Schurman, Dewey, Otis, Denby, and Worcester, but they are based on good comparative data, and I think Admiral Dewey and President Schurman hold similar opinions.

THE PEOPLE THE GREAT FACTOR.

I have devoted this amount of space to general observations on the Chinese people because, first, they are points often overlooked, and, second, our interests in China must naturally depend largely on the capacity and quality of the inhabitants. Her millions of people are her chief stock in trade, and they are increasing rapidly, with corresponding increase of consumption. The Chinaman fortunately takes kindly to foreign products, manufactured and raw, when he has money to purchase them or is taught to use or consume them.

The contention that the Chinese may some day become a mighty competing force and that we should let them alone is constantly encouraged by those opposed to our legitimate expansion in the Pacific. Even if it is granted that such a time will and must come, the fact remains that during the long years that will elapse before competition can become a serious question, the nations of Europe will bend their unlimited energies to supply the Chinese wants of raw and manufactured products and gain all the vast profits of trade which would otherwise be ours, entailing a loss upon us of uncounted millions. Even if China is eventually to be the home-of cheap manufacturing and cheap labor, let us lay by for that rainy day the vast reserve capital that we can earn by the trade of the present.

From careful study of Chinese labor I aru not, however, inclined to take a pessimistic view of the future. Economy of labor and machinery is being perfected to such a point in America that our laborers and producers will always be able to hold their own. The dangers of the future are exaggerated and purely hypothetical. Experiments of the present need not cause us any fear for the years of competition that are to follow. The price of labor in Japan and in many of the Chinese ports has doubled in the last eight years and is now on the upward trend. Mere numbers, which is the chief advantage of Asia, does 'not yet counterbalance America's superior skill, and the few natives that will develop high skill in comparison to the large proportion of Americans is a further consideration of importance.

OPPORTUNITY TO BE DEVELOPED.

The opportunity for American trade expansion in China is often minimized by its critics on the ground that it is now so small. To me this is the most favorable feature. It means that great possibilities are ahead. If we had long made a vigorous effort to develop commerce with the Orient and had attained no larger results there might be reason for complaint. As it is, we have not even yet begun to compete for our share ot the Oriental trade on lines that must bring ample rewards. A few years ago not 1 per cent, of our manufacturers were at all familiar with the Asiatic field; to-day not more than 10 per cent, realize the magnitude and variety of the Asiatic opportunity. If the total of our present exchange of commodities with Asia is not impressive compared to the totals of other lands, it is, however, in fact surprisingly large in view of our limited efforts. With all Asia and Oceauica, which are closely associated, our commerce in round numbers amounts to only $150,000,000 in a grand total of over $2,100,000,000, or not more than 7 per cent.; but a study of conditions will prove that in due time, with our strong new position in the Philippines, which are the geographical, commercial, and strategical center of the mighty broken coastline that extends from Melbourne on the south right away for 8,000 miles to Vladivostock, we should have to our credit at least half this interesting total. If a circle of 2,500 miles radius is drawn with Manila as the center, it will take in such important but widely separated points as Vladivostock on the north, -Sydney on the south, and Calcutta on the west. No similar circle drawn around any other Asiatic port will include more centers of population and commerce. With the Philippines as the base of our operations we are upon the threshold of vast possibilities not only in China, which is only 600 miles away, but throughout the remainder of Asia and Oceauica, including Australia, which at its northern point is only 900 miles from the southern end of the Philippines.

"With the present Philippine foreign trade of $33,000,000—developed to that figure under the depressing influence of the old regime—enlarged in the near future under progressive American control to $150,000,000 per annum; with the islands possessing a larger variety of great marketable staple products than any other Asiatic land in proportion to area; with a people who are naturally fond of foreign importations when they have money with which to buy, as they will have in times of peace; and with all the principal lines of steamships, European and American, that ply to and fro between Asia and, respectively, Europe through the Suez Canal, America across the Pacific, and Australia through the island seas, preparing either to make Manila a port of call or

to establish new and quick connections front Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shanghai—with all these favoring conditions America indeed stands to-day with unsurpassed facilities to exploit successfully not only the commerce of China, but of the entire trans-Pacific world. Cooperating with Manila will be San Francisco, San Diego, Portland, Taeoma, and Seattle, just appreciating as never before the future before them in the Pacific and the influences that will make them great capitals like our Atlantic entrepot.

If we will lose no time in digging the Nicaragua Canal and laying the trans-Pacific cable, to follow up the decisive advantage of holding the Philippines and maintaining the open door in China, there is a future before us in the Pacific which should compel the honest acknowledgment of even the most pessimistic and cynical critics of our Asiatic policy, if they would for a moment view the situation with unprejudiced eyes or take the sincere word of those who for years have faithfully studied the field on the ground and would be guilty of flagrant neglect of their country's best interests or of gross stultification if they did not portray this Asiatic opportunity as it has unfolded itself to their own eyes.

RESULTS ALREADY OBTAINED.

The start that we have already obtained in China is encouraging. Few people appreciate that she provides the chief market for the export of our manufactured cotton goods, and that the majority of the new cotton mills established throughout the South are solely supplying the Chinese trade. With this growing demand for manufactured cotton in China and for raw cotton in Japan the South is as much concerned to-day as any part of the United States in the development of Asiatic markets. She should be the last section of the United States to oppose a progressive policy in the Pacific. In 1900 it is altogether probable that America will Bell $12,000,000 worth of cotton goods in China. Last year they reached nearly $9,000,000. When! firVt visited the Orient our sales of cotton goods did not exceed $2,000,000. At the present rate of increase the value of the trade should reach $30,000,000 at least, in another ten years. Northern China and the part that is considered as coming under Russian influence consumes the major part of this product. It therefore behooves us to see that there is no discrimination against such imports in favor of the output from the new cotton mills of southern Russia which are preparing to compete for the Asiatic trade.

Corresponding to the development of the cottoa trade in the north, with Shanghai as the base and Chefoo, Tientsin, and Newchwang as distributing centers for the interior, is the growth of the flour exports to Hong Kong and southern China. A few years ago consuls and business agents said that there would be no market for American flour in China. Now the entire sales to the far East have reached in a short time the considerable total of $6,000,000 per annum ; yet only a few of China's millions know what flour is. The time is coming when the farmers of the Pacific coast States will be independent of the Liverpool wheat market and dispose of all they can produce in the form of flour to Asia's millions.

As the Orient calls for the flour, timber, and other raw supplies of the' Pacific coast or far West, the manufactured and raw cotton of the .South, it is providing an important market for the great variety of manufactured iron, steel, and general hardware products of the Eastern States and central West, as well as the petroleum of the Middle States. Therefore the whole country is concerned in the Chinese opportunity and in maintaining our inalienable treaty rights of commerce throughout that empire.

China's Rich Environment.

The limits of space do not permit in this discussion of China that the wonderful details of her environment should be narrated. Passing reference only can be made to Japan's new life as a full-fledged power where America is heid in high favor by statesman and coolie alike. Her foreign trade of $240,000,000 may bo slightly curtailed at first by the inauguration of the new tariff during the past year, but the outlook for enlarged commerce with the United States is most encouraging. Japan has a praiseworthy record of progress, and she merits all the credit she receives, despite adverse comment now and then on the effect of her rapid advancement and methods of trade. Korea is an inviting field of material exploitation, with her opportunities for the safe investment of capital, as well as for extending a commerce which is now small. Eastern Siberia under Russian development is proving a growing and valuable market for both our raw and manufactured products. Siam on the south is the most progressive independent country in all Asia after Japan, and has a king who ranks as one of the foremost statesmen in Asiatic politics. A wonderfully rich country, on the eve of. extended development and now a neighbor of ours (Bangkok being only 1,200 miles from Manila), she is worthy of our attention. Java has proved a marvel under Dutch control and shows what we can do in the Philippines. With the same area as Luzon, but not equal to it in resources, Java supports 20,000,000 in contentment and thrives on a foreign trade of $250.000. •

000. The exchange of trade at Hong Kong, Britain's chief Asiatic outport of empire and commerce and Manila's nearest neighbor, is over $250,000,000, and it is not an uncommon thing for sixty merchant vessels of all nations to be loading and unloading in her crowded harbor. Singapore, Manila's approach from the southwest and another British success, boasts of an annual exchange of $180,000,000. And there are other interesting countries and cities near to China and the Philippines, but they must be left out in this rapid epitome.

PRESENT EXPORTS AND NEEDED INCENTIVES.

That this article may be as complete as possible within its limitations and answer the inquiries of those who wish to learn more of China, I will enumerate some of the principal exports that are already going to China in greater or less quantities, but'most of which can be expanded: Manufactured and raw cotton; petroleum or kerosene oil; flour and other breadstuffs; canned goods, including frail, butter, milk, cheese, and meats; lubricating oil";; timber and manufactured woods; medicines and chemicals; wines, spirits, and beers; tobacco, especially in cigarette form; all kinds of machinery and hardware; locomotives, cars, rails, bridges, structural iron; clocks and watches; sewing machines and bicycles; telephones, telegraph supplies and electric railroads, lights, and fans; paper; leather; and, if the field is properly exploited, a long list that comes under the commercial head of "muck and truck." To many this enumeration is interesting as showing the variety of the trade opportunity in China. The Philippines will, moreover, consume a proportionate share of these same products.

In response to the specific question, What are some important steps that should be taken to build up our commerce with China and other Oriental lands aside from the canal, cable, and open door? the answer can be made: A commission should be sent to the far East as outlined in President McKinley's message to investigate and report fully on the commercial situation ; a parcel post system, like that which European nations already have, should be established with the Orient for the benefit of our Asiatic merchants in sending samples, etc.; larger and faster steamers should be placed on the Pacific, and the advisability of extending reasonable subsidies to our merchant marine should be carefully considered in order that it may be fostered and built up in competition with old-established European lines; there should be located at all the principal Asi. atic ports American banks or branches thereof, for there are none at present and all business is done through British and European banks; experienced, competent men should be sent to the Orient to represent individual firms, and dependence not be placed on circulars, catalogues, and letters; commercial attaches should be appointed to our legations and leading consulates who are men of practical business training; the consuls who have mastered the field with its difficulties and proved their worth should be retained; and the preparation, by study of the language, of specially trained men at Pekin for the permanent force of assistants at legations and consulates, encouraged as recommended by Secretary Hav in the diplomatic and consular bill.

COMMISSION AND EXPOSITION.

The commercial commission proposed by President McKinley has a practical sound that will appeal to the manufacturing and exporting interests of the entire country. The remarkable success of similar commissions that have visited China from Great Britain, France, and Germany is a sufficient and convincing precedent. It should not be large enough to be cumbersome, but should have on its staff, if possible, experts, for instance in such great lines of export as dry goods and textiles and of hardware in its comprehensive sense. Its work should not only include studying all features, favorable and unfavorable, of demand and supply with reference to a market for our manufactured and raw products, but possibilities of imports from China or return cargoes for our ships. The latter to give low outgoing rates must have paying freight both ways. The conditions of Oriental life, trade, and government are such that a commission of this kind, not suited to European lands, would be the only successful means of obtaining a vast amount of data that we need for the extension of our commerce. The sooner it is named and set to work, the greater will be the benefits. The reports of consuls are good, but local and limited; those of the commission will be both general and local, and conclusions will be reached by broad comparisons.

The advisability of establishing a permanent exposition of American products at Shanghai has been much discussed by our exporters and merchants. It has not, however, been enthusiastic, ally favored, because there is an impractical, harmful side to such efforts unless well managed and extensively supported. It should be comprehensive and excellent in every respect, or it would be a failure. If established and conducted by mere promoters or men not having the confidence of both American and Asiatic merchants, it would not be permanently successful. If, how. ever, it is encouraged by representative American

exporters and Asiatic importers and has the moral support of such bodies as the American Asiatic Association in New York and Shanghai, the chambers of commerce and merchants' asso. ciations of New York and San Francisco, and is managed by men indorsed by them, it should prove of great advantage to trade.

MISSIONARIES AND DIPLOMATS.

While this article is not intended to cover the details of the moral problems involved in China's development, there is no desire to minimize them. America's opportunities to raise the civilization of the Chinese, to promote the wellbeing of the masses, to encourage education on modern lines among the people, to spread the healthy influence of Christianity, and to urge reforms in government and administration without unwarranted meddling are coordinate with Impossibilities of material exploitation. The work of American missionaries that has been going on for over half a century in China has been productive of far greater good than is generally appreciated. Especially have the educational and medical branches of their unselfish labor been fraught with excellent results. After careful study of the missionary field not only in China, but in Siam, where the work came for years under my closest observation, 1 can say that I do not agree with the adverse and superficial conclusions which one hears so often in the clubs and at the dinner-tables of the treaty ports. The King of Siam and Marquis Ito, of Japan, two of Asia's most representative statesmen, have more than once assured me of their sympathy with the missionaries, while the former has repeatedly given them material assistance. The efforts of Rev. Gilbert Reid to establish an international institute at Pekin for the education of the higher classes of Chinese are approved by the government of China and are worthy of hearty American support.

With the missionaries quietly striving to ameliorate religious and social conditions, with our ministers and consuls jealously guarding our political and commercial interests, with our business agents actively and successfully competing with those of Europe, with the new prestige and influence that has followed Dewey's victory and the occupation of the Philippines, and with the determination of the Government to protect our treaty rights of trade, the outlook for America in China is certainly favorable. Reference to our foreign representatives in the far East suggests the conclusion that our country is fortunate in having able men at the responsible posts in this crisis, notable among whom are our ministers. Buck in Tokio, Conger in China, Allen in Seoul, and King in Bangkok, supported by Consuls-General Gowey at Yokohama, Goodnow at Shanghai, and Wildman at Hong Kong.

THE BRIGHT AND DARK BIDE.

The bright side of the Chinese opportunity includes in brief: the expansion of her foreign commerce to vast figures following the opening of the interior; the material development of her immense area and its varied resources; the gridironing of the country with railroads; the improvement of her great inland navigable river systems; the dredging of her extensive mileage of canals; the betterment of harbors and removals of bars; the construction of electric street-railroad lines; the placing of electric lights, telephones, and the introduction of sewer and water systems in her numerous populous cities; the building of highways to connect numberless important and lesser cities and towns; the extension of postal, telegraph, and telephone connections throughout the interior; the general establishment of educational institutions; and the introduction of such reforms in administration and government, central and provincial, as will bring immeasurable advantages to Chinese and foreigners alike.

The unfavorable side of this mighty opportunity is largely confined, first, to the methods of governmental administration that now obtain, and, secondly, to the apparent policy of certain foreign powers to establish spheres of influence and close the door of trade to us.

Of the former little can be said beyond the fact that the combined moral force of the chief powers interested, the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Russia, and Japan, is sufficient, and should be wisely and with generous, helpful spirit employed to induce China to inaugurate certain sweeping improvements in administration of government and in maintenance of law and order in all parts of the empire.

Of the latter it can be first contended that many of the powers are delaying the possibility of effecting this result by plundering China of ports and territory, and so destroying her confidence in their purposes and counsels. In the second place, it bids fair to so seriously limit the wide field of American trade that the great permanent and vital value of open Chinese markets will be lost to us unless such steps are taken as will effectually protect our interests, guaranteed by both the old and new treaties with China, which say that America shall have the same rights of trade everywhere as any other foreign nation. The language is so explicit as to permit of no misunderstanding. Our first treaty of 1844 with China has this wording:

If additional advantages and privileges of whatever description be conceded hereafter by China to any other nation, the United States and the citizens thereof shall be entitled thereupon to a complete, equal, and impartial participation in the same.

This certainly is most positive and emphatic. The other treaties that followed, particularly those of 1858 and 1880, are none the less strong and even more specific in guarding our interests.

"Open Door" And "spheres Of Influence."

In explanation of all the recent newspaper discussion about the "open door," "spheres of influence," and the efforts of our Government through the Department of State, under the wise guidance of Secretary Hay, to obtain written assurances from foreign powers that the door of trade would not be closed and that spheres of influence should not be construed in any way to permit discriminations against American imports, it can be said that the United States is safeguarding for the future, and through whatever conditions may develop in the exigencies of political relations of nations, the plain, simple rights and privileges outlined in the GhineseI American treaties. The "open door" means nothing moi'e or less than that no one or more nations shall enjoy any special or privileged rights of trade over others. It does not mean, as often believed by those unfamiliar with the question, "free trade" or absence of customs duties, but merely freedom of trade without favoritism. "Spheres of influence" are sections where one country exercises that paramount influence which practically forbids any other country from operating, either materially or politically, within its limits, without permission or acquiescence of the paramount power. Technically the phrase casts no reflection on the sovereignty of China, but unless a firm stand is taken by China, supported by the United States and other powers most concerned, these spheres will eventually evolve into "areas of actual sovereignty."

At present the "door" of trade has not been closed in any such tangible way that the United States can cite sufficient illustrations for diplomatic protests to China or to the power controlling the port or point concerned, but the danger is so imminent as to fully warrant the recent action of the State Department. In the various alleged spheres, however, the control of the favored or paramount power over material enterprises like construction of railroads and opening of mines, as outlined in agreements with China, is in many instances so plainly expressed that it means nothing more or less than that no other country can operate there and no valuable conces