From July 1963 to June 1964 Dr. Davis was Professor of Foreign Affairs, The National War College. In June 1964 he assumed his present permanent position on this faculty. Since then, as Professor of International Affairs, he has continued his work in Latin American studies, and also has directed the College's very significant lecture program and served in other administrative capacities. Dr. Davis remained with George Washington University on a parttime basis during 1963–66.

He is the author of The Last Conquistadores: The Spanish Intervention in Peru and Chile, 1863-1866 (1950); The Columns of Athens, Georgia's Classic City (1951); and various articles on recent Latin American political and economic developments; co-author, Soviet Bloc Latin American Activities and Their Implications for United States Foreign Policy (study prepared for U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee) (1960); editor, Index to the Writings on American History 1902-1940 (1956); and The American Historical Association's Guide to Historical Literature (1960). He has directed and participated in numerous NBC television and radio programs on Latin American topics.

TESTIMONY OF DR. WILLIAM COLUMBUS DAVIS

Mr. CRANDALL. Dr. Davis, when you testified before this committee in October 1971-and it is a pleasure to welcome you back to the committee-you predicted that if Allende adopted measures to destroy the Chilean constitutional system, he would be thrown out of office by the military. This of course, has occurred.

You also predicted that the military would govern for awhile, and that the country would then be restored to a democratically constituted government. My question is as follows:

In the chaos that has resulted from 3 years of the Allende regime, can the Chilean people expect to return to a democratically constituted government in the foreseeable future?

Dr. DAVIS. This depends, in part, by what you really mean by "the foreseeable future." Things became so bad during the Allende regime, there is so much that has to be changed, that it will take time. It may take a few years, but I do think, and I feel very strongly, that in time Chile will return to a democratically constituted government.

There is in Chile, of course, a very long tradition of democracy, constitutional government, and political stability. It has the longest record of democracy of any Latin American country. It is a tradition that cannot be done away with easily.

Now, admittedly, the Junta, which has taken over, has gone very far in some respects, perhaps a bit too far, in trying to completely make over the country. At the same time, the members of the Junta are determined that another Allende period will not occur either, and they are trying to make sure that it does not happen.

Also, Chile had gone so far down the wrong path economically that it is going to take a long while to restore somewhat of an economic balance and bring the country back to a sound economic life.

These things the Junta will be trying to do. I would think that it is going to be at least another 2 or 3 years before a democratically constituted government can be restored, and it may take even longer than that. But I think that it will return in time.

Mr. CRANDALL. Dr. Davis, would you please assess the principal factors that brought about the demise of Allende's regime?

Dr. DAVIS. For one thing, one of the most impressive things that came out of this period is the great degree of democracy the people in Chile actually have enjoyed. The system itself, to a large degree, brought about Allende's demise.

You may recall that one of the principal things that immediately brought about the overthrow of Allende was the nationwide-almost complete nationwide-strike which developed in Chile.

This really began in October 1972 as a truckers' strike, a protest by the independent truckers against the government's apparent attempt to seize control of the trucking industry. After a short time, Allende was able to stop it for awhile by a compromise arrangement, but it started up again in mid-1973. It then became a more widespread strike with many other people-lawyers, doctors, shopkeepers, and othersjoining in. The strike spread to nationwide proportions. Before and during this period large groups of irate citizens staged loud protests against the evils of the Allende government and especially the serious food shortages and very great inflation.

It was these demonstrations and especially the strike that helped to spur on the military to the step which it took in September.

Now, this is not new in Chile. The same thing happened once before, in 1931, when a president was toppled by a nationwide strike. You see here a working democracy in Chile where people are able to express themselves.

Another element in Chile which plays an important part, and which has not been mentioned as it should be, is the Congress.

Chile is unique, or has been unique among Latin American countries, in that the Congress has been very powerful. This is not typical of most Latin American countries. In the Congress, Allende and his party never had a majority, and this was one thing he was striving for in the congressional elections last year and did not achieve.

In the Congress there was a strong opposition, which played a significant role. So you see here the working of these three elements-the military, the Congress, and the people in general.

The Chilean military has traditionally been a nonpolitical organization, and members of the military have tried hard to stay out of politics. They tried very hard to stay out of this situation, but finally out of necessity were brought in, and thus the revolution that occurred last September.

[At this point, Mr. Burke entered the hearing room.]

Mr. CRANDALL. When a new constitution is adopted in Chile, in your view, will it be more conservative or liberal?

Dr. DAVIS. Looking at it from one point of view, it would be more conservative. On the other hand, looking at it from another point of view it would be more liberal.

One thing that the Junta is striving for, and I am sure will continue trying to accomplish in a new constitution, is to provide a system which will make impossible the reelection of a candidate such as Allende. The objective is to make it impossible for a minority candidate to get elected as Allende was, and thus try to prevent another occurrence of what happened in 1970. In this respect, the constitution will be more conservative.

On the other hand, the Junta also recognizes the fact that certain basic economic and social changes have taken place in Chile during the Allende period and also before him during the preceding Frei administration. The new constitution will certainly have to recognize these changes, and thus should be somewhat more liberal.

Mr. CRANDALL. Taking into consideration that Latin America is comprised of many countries in different stages of economic and political development, would you please assess the current relative influence in Latin America of Cuba, the Soviet Union, and Red China?

Dr. DAVIS. Of the three, you can certainly say that Red China is the least influential. Now, there may be a question between the other two. You have to bear in mind that the Soviet Union has been, to a considerable degree, working through Cuba in influencing Latin America.

So you have a question then as to whether Cuba itself or the U.S.S.R., working partially through Cuba, has been more influential. They have been working in different ways.

The influence of Cuba has declined since the early years of the Castro regime, mainly because many people in Latin America have become disillusioned with Castro himself in the years following his seizure of power in Cuba.

There were many in Latin American countries who looked upon Castro as a knight in shining armor, who would bring about, in Cuba, many of the reforms they would have liked to see in their own country. This image has faded, of course, as they have learned more of the true nature of what has been going on in Cuba.

Castro's influence has certainly declined from that point of view. On the other hand, Cuba has been a training ground for subversive actions, and many subversives have been poured into the Latin American countries as well as the United States. In this sense, the Cuban influence has been quite great.

Something that has really come to light since the Chilean coup of September is the great degree to which Cuba was instrumental in the training of subversives who infiltrated Chile, and how many were there at the time of the overthrow of Allende. It had become very serious.

On the other hand, the U.S.S.R., you will find, is working in different ways in Latin America. It has gone about, in recent years especially, trying to appear respectable and create a different image from what it once had. The Soviets have succeeded in establishing relations with several Latin American countries with which they did not have diplomatic relations.

Mr. CRANDALL. Viewing Latin America in the light of world tensions, the energy crisis, changing world market conditions, and other significant military and economic factors, what can we expect from Latin America in the foreseeable future?

Dr. DAVIS. I have said many times, and I will say it again here today, it is very misleading to look at Latin America as one big unit. You have to look at the individual countries, and you will find that each one is different from the other.

You can find that today a few Latin American countries are benefiting and will benefit from the world energy crisis-for example, Venezuela and Ecuador, which are oil exporters. There may be others that will benefit. On the other hand, several Latin American republics which have to import oil are being disastrously affected. This will continue for a time.

Looking at it from another point of view, there are several Latin American countries, particularly Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, and Chile, to a considerable degree, in the past, where there has been a great deal of progress toward industrialization.

This is going on and will continue. Certainly, Mexico and Brazil are outstanding examples in recent years of what can be done, and what is being done, and what will be done. I think that this kind of progress will also appear to a greater degree in some other Latin American countries. I think that the future of Latin America looks quite bright.

However, you have to bear in mind that these countries are in various stages of development.

Mr. CRANDALL. Do you foresee any possibility of various Latin American countries moving toward a common market in order to develop and export their own resources?

Dr. DAVIS. This, of course, is what they have been trying to do for quite a number of years. The Central American Common Market did quite well for a few years. That, together with the completion of the highway connecting these five countries, did bring them together, and did considerably increase trade and communication between them.

Unfortunately, they have fallen on hard times because of the troubles between El Salvador and Honduras in the last few years, and because of the fact that the Costa Ricans have become somewhat disillusioned. This has been the most successful attempt at a common market in Latin America.

The Latin American Free Trade Association (LAFTA), which embraces a much greater area-Mexico plus 10 South American countries has not been very successful. It is too difficult to really break down the long-established tariff barriers and bring these far-flung and very diverse countries together.

On the other hand, within the Latin American Free Trade Association there has developed in the last few years the Andean Common Market, which probably will be more successful because it includes fewer countries and these are somewhat nearer alike.

Also, there is the Rio de la Plata group, which is developing to promote trade. This type of regional arrangement is more practical than trying to bring all of Latin America, or vast portions of it, together in some kind of common market.

The great difficulty, of course, has been the tradition of protectionism, which has so long existed and which is very difficult to break down in these countries, plus the fact that only a few of them today are still producing commodities that can readily be traded with other Latin American countries. In some cases this has happened. For example, Brazil has become a significant producer of manufactured articles that it is now able to sell to its neighbors.

Mr. CRANDALL. Dr. Davis, from your observations and studies, do you feel that the communist ideology has made significant inroads in various of the Latin American countries in the past few years?

Dr. DAVIS. I don't think that I would say that the communist ideology as such has necessarily made significant inroads in the last few years. Probably it has been the other way around.

There have been many Latin Americans, who formerly endorsed the communist ideology, who may have become a bit disillusioned, but there are still many followers.

On the other hand, I would say that the communist influence has increased in some of these Latin American states, particularly subversive influence has become more serious, and I think may be expected to, especially in organized terrorism, and other such activities.

Mr. CRANDALL. Do you draw any differentiation between Marxist communism and, we will say, the ideology subscribed to by Allende as it relates to Latin American countries?

Dr. DAVIS. Do I see a difference between Allende's philosophy and that of Marxism-Leninism in general?

Mr. CRANDALL. That is right.

Dr. DAVIS. Probably some, but not a great deal. Allende certainly considered himself a Marxist. Now, bear in mind that Allende was not a communist. He was not a member of the Communist Party in Chile. He was a member of the Socialist Party, which, in Chile, was actually a more extremist or leftist party than the Communist Party.

Certainly, what Allende was trying to do in Chile was to make Chile a Marxist state, and he was very much following the Marxist-Leninist line.

Mr. CRANDALL. Would you discuss the essential ingredients necessary to place a country in a position to be vulnerable to a communist takeover, or a Marxist-Leninist takeover?

Dr. DAVIS. You may recall that I appeared before this committee in October 1971, and at that time I discussed the general subject of communist influence in Latin America.

One thing that I pointed out, by means of some maps that I brought along, is the fact that it is not necessarily in the dictator-ruled countries or those with the lowest standards of living or least amount of individual freedom that the Communists have been successful, or have found the greatest opportunity.

Quite the contrary, it has really been in some of the more democratic countries, where there is more freedom to operate, and where they can operate among a higher level of citizenry than in some more backward countries. One ingredient, certainly, that is necessary, is the freedom to operate, which Communists have found under certain left-leaning governments, as Chile under the political system which existed there. They have taken advantage of such opportunities.

On the other hand, they have been much more restricted in countries such as Paraguay, where there is a very strong dictatorship type of government which has not allowed the Communists to get out of hand. The standard of living in Paraguay is far lower, the opportunities of the citizens are considerably less than in some neighboring countries, yet there has been virtually no Communist influence there. The same is true of some of the other Latin American countries.

On the other hand, you certainly can say that a far-reaching reform program, such as we have seen in Mexico within the last approximately 50 years, has done a great deal to minimize Communist influence. The Mexicans themselves have conducted their own revolution, their own reform-land reform and other types of reform. This type of thing certainly has served to help counteract Communist influence that might have existed among a greater number of people.

Mr. CRANDALL. The people of Chile were saved from a complete communist takeover as a result of actions taken by the military. Would you comment on the role of the military in Latin America with

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