them recognition, but the current of comment here among men who generally map out legislation is that they will never be considered by the Senate." THE Eastern free trade papers have much to say about the existence of a strong "low tariff sentiment" among the Western Republicans. A Washington despatch says: Senator Mitchell of Oregon, speaking of talk about changing the tariff, says: "I am opposed and so are my constituents to any tinkering with the tariff at the coming session of Congress. The country is prosperous with the tariff as it now exists, and business is adjusted to it and we do not want any change." Senator Elkins of West Virginia has also expressed himself as decidedly opposed to any tariff changes. He is not even convinced that it would be a good thing to ratify any of the reciprocity treaties. Senator Burrows of Michigan is equally opposed to any change in the tariff. Speaker Henderson says: "I never was a firmer believer in the doctrine of protection than I am to-day. No one policy has done so much for the development of our country, for the elevation of labor on the farm, and in the shop as this great policy." Many other prominent Western senators and congressmen have expressed themselves to the same effect; and it may well be added that such is the view of nearly all of the Republicans in Congress. It seems perfectly reasonable that the Western Republican leaders should know the senti ment of the people in that section on the tariff question far better than the free trade press in the East. INDUSTRIAL AND TRADE NOTES. BY WALTER J. BALLARD. Over $100,000,000 of American money is now loaned abroad. California fruits have ousted Spanish fruits in the French, German and British markets. Europe's paying us for our shipments of bread-stuffs, with Australian gold, hence the large amounts arriving almost weekly. The United States railway system employs 36,000 locomotives, 26,000 passenger cars, 8,000 mail and baggage cars and 1,250,000 freight cars. We think we are badly troubled when we have two or three strikes on our hands, but last year France averaged about seventy-five strikes each month. Owing to the good times, the United States Glass Co. is able to pay a dividend of four per cent on its preferred stock. This is its first dividend since THE VALUE OF OUR EXPORT TRADE. HE common theory concerning ply our own wants but to compete Tour export trade is that a for successfully in supplying the wants eign market is chiefly valuable to the country as a dumping ground for our surplus products. This is true to a certain extent to-day; but in recent years an export trade has been built up in some special articles, which are not sold sold abroad as surplus products but because of their superior quality, or special adaptation to foreign needs. It may well be assumed that, in most cases, it is superior style and quality and not low prices that have established this kind of export trade. The Textile Manufacturers' Journal remarks on this point: "Foreign markets cannot be captured by dumping upon them surplus products. The day has gone by, if it ever existed, for such methods. The way to capture these markets is to make goods suitable for them, put up in a way which conforms to the requirements of the people, and it is only through such means that these markets can be obtained." The progress of this country in the production of so many articles of great merit is, as has been remarked by a protectionist writer, "a splendid vindication of the American system of protection to American industries;" for it is under this system that our varied arts have been developed, so that we are able not only to sup of other nations. While no one can look with indifference upon the export trade of this country, the shadow may be easily mistaken for the substance when we estimate its actual value. As. compared with our vast domestic commerce our export trade does not make an impressive showing. The statement is often made and generally accepted as approximately correct, that we consume nearly ninetytwo per cent of what we produce and send only eight per cent abroad. The absolute correctness of this statement is now questioned by some good authorities. In 1896, Professor Gunton estimated upon the basis of the census figures of 1889 (the year covered by the eleventh census) that our total exports of all products unmanufactured and manufactured constituted hardly more than 5 per cent of the home consumption. There is no reason to believe that this proportion is greater at the present time, and it may be much less. The New York Commercial says: "It is not so long ago since the surplus of our production reached only about two per cent of our total output. It may be a question if the percentage has risen so high (eight per cent) in so short a time. At any rate, the total busi ness of the country, as shown by the bank clearings, does not depend upon other countries for anything like eight per cent of its amount. Our bank clearings last year (1900 fiscal year) were, roundly estimated, about $92,000,000,000, whereas our combined export and import trade was only about $2,000,000,000, or a trifle over two per cent." In the last fiscal year the bank clearings were over $107,000,000,000, and the total of our foreign trade was $2,310,428,573, in which amount our domestic exports figured $1,460,453,809! The forthcoming census reports showing the aggregate production of the country in 1899 will give a basis for a more accurate estimate of the comparative value of domestic and foreign trade; but in the absence of positive figures the unprecedented growth of our internal trade during the past three years makes it safe to conclude that eight per cent is altogether too large an estimate of our surplus product for which we seek to find a market abroad. If the surplus is found not to be more than two to four per cent, then the export trade as a factor in the country's prosperity will be given its proper value, and will not be so grossly and persistently magnified as has been the vogue for several years past. If the consumptive power of the country has been so far increased as to limit export trade and make the great mass of producers less desirous of gaining foreign markets, probably the only people who will feel any real regret on that account will be those who look upon foreign trade as the bulwark of national prosperity-most likely for the reason that their personal interests are specially identified with that branch of commerce. It was remarked in an article in the September issue of this magazine that the value of an export trade to the country depended 'very much upon the cost of getting it. How much of this trade may be done at a positive loss is not easily ascertained; but it may well be questioned if any manufacturer would long continue to supply foreign countries with some product gratuitously, even when he had a profitable home trade. A few weeks ago the Springfield Republican expressed the opinion that the value of our exports is inflated; for the purpose (it was assumed) of concealing the fact that many goods are being disposed of at little or no profit; and so it was deduced that the balance of trade in our favor must be less than the official figures show. The assumption is that values of exports are stated at domestic prices, while they are sold abroad at a good deal less. Another free trade paper, the New York Journal of Commerce says that while the charge of the Republican can neither be proved nor disproved, there is no apparent reason why exporters should declare a dif ferent value at the Custom House from that in their invoices. It goes on to say: "The Bureau of Statistics endeavors to get the actual selling prices, and not content with taking the state ments of the exporters, letters asking for more precise information, or for the explanation of apparent inconsistencies, are sent out in hundreds, if not thousands, of cases annually, and the declared values of staple products are constantly compared with the market quotations. Under these circumstances we do not believe that any great amount of over-valuation of exports can occur. When machinery passes through this port on through bills of lading from Chicago or Milwaukee, or carriages pass through on through bills of lading from South Bend, the Custom House here has no knowledge of the values except as they are reported from the bills of lading by the steamship company, but in the absence of any motive for stating other than selling prices we cannot suppose that any material inflation of the exports comes about from this source." As it is known that foreign producers sending goods to our market often make a discount in price to American customers to cover a part of the tariff duties which may be imposed on such goods, it is not unlikely that American exporters of goods sent to countries like Germany and France which have protective tariffs may follow the same practice. Some exporters may sell goods abroad at a lower price in order to gain a new market or to unload a surplus, but it is hardly credible that this practice is very general. If much merchandise is thus disposed of, then it may be said that this trade is of value to the country only because the goods represent certain amounts expended for raw material and in wages. As a late concerning our large exports of Of what value is an export trade to the country if it is gained at the expense of some of our important domestic industries? is just now a live question. The argument of those who seek an extension of our export trade upon this basis is something like this: They urge that our productive capacity in some industries has so far outgrown the needs of the home market that a great increase in our export trade is an absolute necessity to the continued well being of such industries; but that this trade expansion cannot be secured unless we give other countries a stronger hold There has been some discussion of upon our domestic market. This kind of talk comes from a class of people who persistently exaggerate the value of our export trade and belittle the home market. Their proposition to reduce tariff duties on other people's prodncts to help the sale of their own products in foreign markets, is distinctly immoral and indefensible; and the value to the country of any export trade so obtained would be offset by the losses inflicted upon the other industries. Besides, all experience shows that there is no advantage in a free international exchange of products that is not based upon the absolute necessities of a country. A noted economist has said that it is wise to try and sell where you buy, but experience has demonstrated that the best market to sell in is not always where you buy. The inference is that it is not by buying more in a foreign market that we can sell more in that market. If we are able to buy more foreign commodities than some countries are able to buy of us, it is because of our greater purchasing ability and higher standard of living; but it may well be assumed that, under normal conditions, no people will buy more of anything than they need and can pay for, and no market can be created in any country beyond the actual necessities and purchasing power of its people. There is another feature in our for eign commerce that has not as yet received much public attention. It is generally assumed that the conditions which have given us high rank as an exporting country are sure to be continued indefinitely; but the "Lower cost of labor, together with cheaper raw material in some cases, and the prejudice of patriotic buyers abroad, all contribute to this condi tion. sewing machines and many other Printing presses, elevators, classes of machinery are now constructed abroad by American firms, while boots and shoes, clothing and numerous other products formerly purchased here, are made and distributed abroad by branch factories of well-known houses in the United States. Little attention has been given to this proposition, but it is becoming of more importance each month, and may prove a solution of the problem that is alarming financiers in England, where the trade balance bas aroused many expressions of alarm." That the production of these goods abroad will sooner or later decrease the volume of our manufactured exports is self-evident; and the net result to this country will be losses on the wages of labor, cost of raw material and taxes on property, and a lessened foreign demand for certain products of domestic manufacture. |