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The first glance at the foregoing table raises suggestions which are not favorable to the census of 1890. Why should the rate of increase by ten-year periods have fallen off from 35.58 per cent. between 1850 and 1860 to 22.63 between 1860 and 1870, to rise again to 30.08 between 1870 and 1880? "On account of the war," is the natural answer. Yes; but if so, why should it have again fallen to 24.85 between 1880 and 1890? To this inquiry the census office replies by alleging that the census of 1870 was defective. So much is admitted; the degree only of that deficiency is a matter of dispute. The census office estimates the deficiency of 1870, roundly, at a million and a half. If this were so, the series would be reasonably self-consistent, as follows:

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I am not disposed to admit that the deficiency was nearly so great as this. But whether we take it to have been a million or three quarters of a million, the correction for 1870 will largely remove the statistical irregularities noted in the ten-year series.

But there is a better way of dealing with the question. The advantage of taking twenty-year or thirty-year periods is that this enables us to jump completely over a suspected or contested census. Whatever we may think of the census of 1870, it is not disputed that the population of the country increased only 116.26 per cent. between 1850 and 1880. It is with this ratio that we should compare that of the thirty-year period between 1860 and 1890, when the gain was 99.16 per cent. It is true that the fall

ing off here was much greater than between the two thirty-year periods 1830-60 and 1840-70. But since it is admitted that a large addition, somewhere between three quarters of a million and a million and a half, requires to be made to the population of 1870, we find this irregularity to be measurably accounted for, and the series, thus corrected, to be, for the last four censuses, tolerably self-consistent. Thus, if we suppose the population of 1870 to have been 39,300,000, we should have the last four thirty-year periods as follows:

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There is, however, one important fact, not appearing in the foregoing table, which dashes our satisfaction at this result, and throws the whole matter again into doubt and dispute. That fact is the enormously increased immigration of the period from 1880 to 1890. Foreign arrivals during that decade were about five and a quarter millions, or twice as much as during the immediately preceding or any preceding decade. This is the element not, as yet, accounted for in the eleventh census. This constitutes the real gravamen of the hostile charges against that census. Had the foreign arrivals of 1880-90 been only as great as those of 1870-80, the result for 1890-namely, 62,500,000— would have been perfectly reasonable on its face, and, in the absence of internal or external evidence, incontestable. But since those foreign arrivals were two and a half millions more, why was not the population of 1890 greater by that amount?

Here appears the significance of the condition mentioned in the earlier part of this paper. If the birth rate among the previously existing population did not suffer a sharp decline coincidently with that enormous increase of immigration, and perhaps in consequence of it, the census of 1890 cannot be vindicated. To ascertain the facts we must await the tabulation of the popu lation by periods of life, and ascertain how many of the inhabitants of the United States in 1890 were under ten years of age. FRANCIS A. WALKER.

OUR CHANCE FOR COMMERCIAL SUPREMACY.

RICHARD COBDEN, the merchant statesman of England, warned his countrymen more than fifty years ago that a nation was growing up on the North American continent which, through the unequaled natural resources of its land and the intense energy of its people, would supplant England in the primacy of the world's commerce. Is this prophecy to be fulfilled, and when?

Hitherto this nation has been very busy subduing a virgin continent-perhaps the most desirable part of the world for human habitation. Our people have built nearly 170,000 miles of railways, over which 30,000 locomotives move 1,000,000 cars carrying nearly 600,000,000 tons of merchandise quickly and economically, while 500,000,000 passengers travel with a comfort and cheapness unknown in other countries. They have developed the full usefulness of the natural waterways by a lavish expenditure, and have made artificial channels which are the arteries of a great traffic. They have pushed the commerce of the great lakes with such energy that more than 10,000,000 tons of merchandise arrive at and depart from the port of Chicago during the season of navigation, while the tonnage passing through the Detroit River is nearly thrice that passing through the Suez Canal. They have spent money extravagantly to improve the harbors of both coasts, and through these gateways go in and out the novel steam and sailing craft of a great coasting fleet, moving vast quantities of merchandise from port to port. They have perfected a superb system of lighthouses, have minutely charted our extended coast line, adding greatly to the safety of navigation, and have established a life-saving service that is a model for other nations. They have made equal progress in providing for the transmission of intelligence; for the telegraph conveys, over 800,000 miles of wire, the written word to every hamlet, and the telephone exchanges speech over ever-widening

areas.

Most of the good soil is now in the service of man; the forests are almost vanquished, and, alas! have almost vanished. The riches under the surface have been sought as eagerly as the riches on it, and our mines, both in useful and in precious products, stir the wonder of the world. Our manufactures, aided by the enterprise and ingenuity of the people, have been multiplied and differentiated until, in many fields of production, six months' work of existing factories is enough to supply our own people for a whole year.

All this serves to show that the commercial unity of the nation is nearly complete. The task of perfecting it has called for the highest energies of a free community, living in a stimulating climate and reinforced in bodily and mental strength by the constant inflow of the more enterprising of the plain people of Europe, who have come here in millions and have merged themselves in these enormous activities.

While we have been building a nation and a home for it, foreign commerce has been naturally secondary, although by no means neglected. During the year 1890, the country exported merchandise valued at nearly $900,000,000. Much of this consisted of raw materials and food supplied to manufacturing nations, but more than $150,000,000 in value was manufactured goods. Of the food exported, more than $200,000,000 worth, such as flour and bacon, had been subjected to manufacturing processes, and the $22,000,000 worth of lumber, staves, etc., which represent the plunder of our forests, had all been partly elaborated. Large as these figures are, they seem small by the side of those that tell the story of Britain's exports of more than $1,500,000,000 in value, of which more than $1,000,000,000 worth consist of manufactured goods, the products of British factories.

There are signs that our country is awakening to a sense of its position among the manufacturing nations as first in activity, wealth, and population. It is beginning to recognize that the 1,300,000,000 people outside its own boundaries represent a vast potential commerce, and that 1,000,000,000 of them live in nonmanufacturing countries. The nations of Europe have been struggling for this trade, fully aware of the enormous value of

the commerce which has built up the wealth of England, but they have been handicapped and unable to make a winning fight against that powerful and astute adversary. There are many evidences that we are about to enter this field of peaceful combat. One such sign is our strong interest in the creation of a new navy which shall constitute a visible symbol of power abroad. As has happened before in the history of our country, after a long period of indifference and inaction, we leap to the front in the fighting effectiveness of our ships. Fortunately we possess a superb corps of naval officers, and it is certain that the new and complex fighting machines will be handled with bravery and skill in time of need. To construct a new navy from American materials required a great development of our steel factories. Its founder, Secretary Whitney, skillfully applied the liberal appropriations, private enterprise responded, and steel of the highest grade is now available in ample quantities for the construction of hulls and for the manufacture of armor plates. The great gun factories at Washington are to-day turning out the most powerful cannon known, and private firms are entering the same field. Foreign commerce is almost the only source of international complications for a country free from dynastic and colonial questions, and the new attitude brings its own peril, which in part is provided against by the new navy.

The course of the United States in the Samoan matter, in throwing down the gauntlet to powerful Germany, created a profound impression in Europe, where it was rightly regarded as the indication of a changed attitude. The interest aroused by the apparently futile Pan-American Congress, the prompt and general approval of Secretary Blaine's reciprocity movement which grew out of it, the dispatch of our army and navy officers to the wilds of the Andes to begin the surveys for the Intercontinental Railroad, and the report by a Senate committee looking toward the control of the Nicaragua Canal by the gov ernment, all proclaim that the United States is awakening and is about to begin an aggressive movement in the campaign of

commerce.

What are the elements of strength that make victory probable? The vividly energetic character of the people, educated

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