During my testimony before your Committee on May 3, 1973, Senator Fannin
asked for my views with regard to the timing of a Canadian alternate to
the proposed Trans-Alaska pipeline. In the course of responding, I
offered to provide for the record additional support for our Trans-Canada
timetable. Senator Fannin encouraged me to do and the purpose of
this letter is to transmit this information to you and the other members
of your Committee.

so,

Beginning on the fifth page of our Detailed Report on Matters Related to
a Trans-Alaska or Trans-Canada Pipeline, which I submitted to your
Committee, we set forth our views on the possible timing of a Trans-
Canada alternative. We conclude that North Slope crude oil production
would be put off for nine or ten years after a final decision barring con-
struction of the Trans-Alaska pipeline is reached and all appeals are
exhausted. I wish to emphasize that this estimate does not allow for any
delay for United States or Canadian governmental action, environmental
opposition, or settlement of native claims in Canada since it is assumed
that these issues could be resolved within the period of time required
for the route analysis, design, and engineering which must be completed
prior to commencement of construction. It is the additional background
and support for our estimate of the time required for these pre-construction
activities and for the construction phase which I submit for your considera-
tion.

Figure 1 of our report, which for your convenience is attached as Exhibit A, delineates certain activities which must be accomplished prior to startup, shows the sequential nature of various activities, and provides our estimate of the time required to accomplish the requisite tasks. Exhibit B, attached, elaborates upon each of these activities and provides support for our estimate of the time which would be required for completion of each.

As

THE STANDARD OIL COMPANY

The Honorable Henry M. Jackson

-2

May 10, 1973

shown, a total of ten years is required to accomplish route analysis, design, and construction of the Trans-Canada pipeline. Since the TransAlaska pipeline, in its present state of readiness, can be completed in three to four years from the date of approval, the Trans-Canada alternative would delay production of North Slope crude oil for six or seven years.

The participants in the Trans-Alaska project have been criticized by some for not bringing the Trans-Canada pipeline to the same state of readiness as the Trans-Alaska pipeline. During my testimony I submitted for the record written answers to those issues suggested by you in your letter dated April 26, 1973. I believe that our response to issue 2(d) will explain our past and continuing reluctance to plan and organize-short of actual construction--for two mutually exclusive transportation systems.

I hope this additional material will be helpful to you, and I want to thank you for the courtesy extended to me when I appeared before your Committee.

ESTIMATED

TRANS-CANADIAN

TIMETABLE

(EXPRESSED IN YEARS FROM DECISION TO GO THROUGH CANADA)

Decision Point

Obtain Permits (Preliminary)

Preliminary Reconnaissance

Soils Analysis Program

Preliminary Survey

Prepare Project Description
Environmental Impact
Statement Preparation
File Canadian & U.S.
Applications - Permit
Canadian Native Claims
U.S. Permit Granted

Canadian Permit Granted

Mile-by-Mile Design
Notices to Proceed

Road Construction

YEAR YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 YEAR 6 YEAR 7 YEAR 8 YEAR 9 YEAR IO

(First month of year 1 through third month of year 1)

If a governmental edict to route the pipeline through Canada were to be issued and all appeals were to be exhausted, the participants in the Trans-Alaska pipeline would have to reorganize since companies with potential oil production in the general vicinity of the pipeline's route through Canada or with existing pipeline facilities in Canada might desire to participate in the Trans-Canada system. Canadian requirements of ownership and control, if any, would have to be ascertained and taken into account. Ownership and operating agreements would have to be renegotiated and a corporate entity formed to undertake the responsibilities associated with designing, financing, and constructing the Trans-Canada pipeline.

2. Obtain Permits (Preliminary)

Three Months Required.

(Fourth month of year 1 through sixth month of year 1)

Application for United States and Canadian permits would have to be submitted and permits obtained in order to make aerial reconnaissance surveys, on-ground verification of preliminary route selection, physical survey, and soil borings.

3. Preliminary Reconnaissance Four Months Required.

4.

(Fifth month of year 1 through eighth month of year 1)

Field work already completed by the Canadian Arctic Gas Study Ltd., and Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Research Ltd. would be reviewed. Preliminary route selection would be either verified or changed by careful field reconnaissance. Additional aerial surveys of basic route, where needed, or alternate routes, where changes have been made, would be obtained.

Soil Analysis Program Two Years and Nine Months Required. (Ninth month of year 1 through fifth month of year 4)

A detailed soil boring program would have to be undertaken to determine the proper construction mode, slope stability, differential settlement,

Note: (1)Time expressed in years after a final decision barring

construction of the Trans-Alaska pipeline is reached
and all appeals are exhausted.

and other environmental information needed to meet the pre-construction requirement for a mile-by-mile design. (The implicit assumption has been made that the Canadian requirements for soil mechanics laboratory analysis of the cores of each bore hole and the subsequent interpretation of the laboratory data for design purposes will be as sophisticated as the analysis required by the U. S. Department of Interior.)

Alyeska, as agent for the participants in the Trans-Alaska pipeline, developed its design data from approximately 4000 bore holes, averaging 50 feet in depth with core samples taken at various depths throughout the bore hole, along approximately 700 miles of the proposed route which traverses permafrost and discontinuous permafrost zones. The Canadian route would traverse approximately 1100 miles of continuous permafrost and 300 miles of discontinuous permafrost, thus requiring twice the number, or 8000 soil borings. Assuming some of the previous test work would be acceptable, this number could be reduced by approximately 30% to 5500 borings. Depths averaging fifty feet are required since the thaw bulb created by the hot oil line could reach fifty feet over the life of the line, making it imperative to know soil conditions to that depth in order to determine whether above ground or buried construction would be required.

The following description of the physical effort required to drill 5500 soil borings is provided as support for our estimate of the time required for this pre-construction activity:

Initially, 40 drilling rigs would have to be ordered. Contracts would have to be prepared; bids solicited, received, evaluated, and contracts awarded. Winning bidders would have to mobilize equipment and crews.

Soil boring must be carefully drilled to preserve soil samples and cores in frozen condition for laboratory analysis. Such soil analysis includes tests for ice content, shear strength when frozen, subsidence upon melting, and pile creep.

Drilling operations are generally helicopter-supported (one larger
unit for transporting equipment and a smaller personnel unit).
The two helicopters would service a unit of 4 drilling rigs, leap-
frogging them ahead. Three trips for each helicopter would be
required to move one rig, all support equipment, fuel, and
personnel.

It is impractical to drill after November 15 in the frigid Arctic weather, with minimum daylight. Work could commence about March 15.