"THE DIAL PLATE OF TIME"

BY HENRY W. BUNN

ON a nice calculation of the gains and losses, of the good and evil hap, of the twelvemonth preceding Armistice Day, 1922, there is perhaps little to choose between the two sums. There's the Irish settlement-that's to the good; but then there's the resurgence of Turkey-that is (whatever Pierre Loti would have said) to the bad. There's the Washington Conference beneficent, surely; but put in the opposite scale Genoa and The Hague, with half of the world talking repudiation and the other half concessions, and always the smell of petroleum-Oil, Oil, destined to replace Religion, Backstairs Intrigue and Self Determination as your chief breeder of bate and mischief in the world. There are Everest-scaling heroes, and there are New York landlords. Nothing is but has its opposite. Ormuzd and Ahriman equally divide the universe. One must not be a pessimist, of course; but, looking back and peering forward, I do not feel justified in a cheerful prognostication. Yet man, the everlasting gull, even if he be a Job or a Dean Inge, will always entertain a soupçon of a hope that in some unexpected quarter something blithe will turn

up.

So I, methinks I behold emerge from the chaos, from the faction, the New China; that is, the Old China with youth renewed. All the arts will revive, and again ye shall see the dewy freshness of Ching and Ch'u, the fierce energy and spiritual power of the T'ang masters, the supple grace, the easy majesty, the supreme elegance of the Sung era. There will be a Renaissance.

Had De Tocqueville been permitted to revisit the glimpses of the moon and to dwell amongst us during the twelvemonth ended on Armistice Day, what would that great observer and philosopher have noted as most significant in our history in the making?

I think he would have noted as of chief significance the enormous development since, ninety years ago, he was a "chiel amang us takin' notes", of the tyranny of public opinion— whether the opinion of a majority, or, what is worse, of a highlyorganized minority usurping the prerogatives of a majority. The best passages in De Tocqueville's incomparable work are those in which he expresses his apprehension that this tyranny of public opinion, exercised with reference to matters properly left to private opinion, might in time wreck the Republic. He would have noted in this connection the attempt in Kentucky (which barely failed of success, and to which Mr. Bryan lent his prestige and his silver tongue) to procure passage of a law prohibiting the teaching in schools supported or aided by State funds, of "evolution as relating to the origin of man"; he would have noted the popular vote in Oregon ratifying the State Act which requires all children (with certain very limited exceptions) between the ages of eight and sixteen, to attend public school; he would have noted the sundry efforts (not all in vain) to tighten and extend censorship over this and over that, to revive old blue laws and enact new and bluer ones, to send to Coventry whoever should have the temerity to contradict Demos. He would have noted these things, and would eagerly have expected Hermes summoning him back to the Elysian fields.

As I see it, the past twelvemonth in our country has been chiefly remarkable for multiplying instances of the tyranny of public opinion. The best suggestion I can make in the premises is that all our citizens, of whatever sex, age, or color, and especially our legislators, spend their days and nights in the reading of De Tocqueville's Democracy in America.

The year saw two great industrial struggles in the United States-one marked by the strike of all the unionized coal miners of the country, the other by the strike of some 400,000 railroad shopmen. After five months, the strike of the miners was ended dubiously and indecisively. Deflation has at least been delayed for the mining industry and the principle of arbitration of wages seems to have received the coup de grâce. In the coming spring difficult negotiations will end successfully or in another strike. On most of the railroads hostilities have ceased-ending in vic

tory for the managements or in cloudy agreements. On the whole, there is peace on the railroads―a peace of sorts, a precarious peace. The miners' strike will forever be remembered for an incident the most hideous and disgraceful in human annals -the Herrin massacre. The behavior of the shopmen justified the President's comment thereon to Congress. "There is," said he, "a state of lawlessness shocking to every conception of American law and order, and violating the cherished guarantees of American freedom."

But, strikes or no strikes, no doubt we shall shog along comfortably enough during the coming year, our food production being far beyond our necessities and our population far this side the saturation point. Our self-love, too, will make shift to explain away the Herrin massacre (that chef d'œuvre of a year distinguished for a bumper crop of murders) and whatever else may seem to contradict our boast of being "a people the most moral ", etc., etc.

Of the Federal legislation of the twelvemonth, perhaps the most significant was that affecting our "preparedness". The Army Appropriation Act carries retrenchment to the point of practically nullifying the National Defense Act, and the Naval Act cuts the navy below the strength required for efficiently manning the ships left by the Five-Power Treaty. Reversion to the condition of helplessness which existed before the war seems to satisfy the people.

The Coöperative Marketing Act calls for especial remark as the legislative firstfruits of the activity of the farm bloc.

The Republicans, in the delectable vulgar phrase, "got theirs on November 4. Their majority in the next House will be only 17 instead of the present 165, and in the Senate 10 instead of the present 24. And, what's worse from the Elephantine point of view, the Progressives or Independents and other irregulars or malcontents within the Republican Party will hold the balance of power in the 68th Congress. What that portends, I leave to the quidnuncs. I expect fun and fireworks.

Our foreign policy, apart from the Washington Conference, has been—well, cautious. The latest invitation to be declined was that to the Lausanne Conference on the Near East. Our policy of

"the open door and equal opportunity" has been continued with success. An admirable policy, and admirably urged. But it seems to have struck a snag in the Turk. The Turk has slammed the door tight. "Equal opportunity," yes; but in the sense that there will be no opportunity for anybody unless he be a Moslem, or, maybe, a Bolshevik. What success the Allies may have in extricating our chestnuts, remains to be seen.

The most famous achievement of the Washington Conference -the agreement as to capital ships-was a formal recognition by the Powers of the fact that the capital ship is obsolescent, that money spent on capital ships is so much good coin thrown away, representing a huge economic loss. The world was rightly astonished-one is still bewildered-by such an exhibition of international common sense. But far more significant, though less dramatic, was the decision of the Conference that "it is not at present practicable to impose effective limitations upon the number and characteristics of aircraft, either commercial or military." Our acceptance of the status quo as to fortifications and naval bases in the Philippines and Guam, which seemed to some a sublime act of faith, should be considered in the light of the above. Fortifications, naval bases, ships, all are vulnerable to attack by aircraft. The future of war is in the air. "And what prophylactic measures shall we adopt, we, who are sincerely desirous to pacify the world?" said the conferees to one another. "None," was the answer, "for none would be effective.”

There seems to be a general opinion that the Conference did little for China. On the contrary, I think the Conference did all that it behooved it to do for China; the China, that is, of the Eighteen Provinces. As to Manchuria, that is another story, too complicated for consideration here; and so is Mongolia, the protégé of Moscow. The conferees concurred, I think sincerely, in a policy contemplating ultimate complete emancipation of the Eighteen Provinces, to be accomplished by discreet stages, and they set on foot certain admirable practical arrangements pursuant thereto. Complete emancipation of China presupposes a Government competent to exercise full sovereignty; a Government not yet in sight. It should be remembered, when consider

ing what the Conference did for China, that the Shantung negotiation, though nominally apart from the Conference, was really part and parcel thereof.

"Well, then, the Conference broke down on Siberia," a doubting Thomas will say. "The Japanese walked right over us Americans." It did look like that. But it was announced the other day that the Japanese had completely evacuated the Siberian mainland. The Japanese were allowed to "save face" at the Conference; and then they did what we wanted them to do. And, again, the Japanese, without any commitment thereto, have evacuated their principal garrison in China-the Hankow garrison. These be indirect results of the Washington Conference, not less important than some direct results.

The outstanding matter of the twelvemonth in the British Empire was the Irish settlement. To be sure, the settlement is not yet complete, but the leaders of all the British parties are pledged to ratification of the Constitution of the Free State and other necessary consummating legislation. On the day when the Irish Free State acquires full legal status as a member of the British Commonwealth of Nations, the whole world will say, "Godspeed!" except, of course, de Valera and his "irregulars", who continue to carry on a guerrilla warfare against their countrymen, marked by infamous cruelty and wanton destruction.

By the grace of Allah and the British Parliament, Egypt has become a kingdom; but the British gift is not to be considered consummated until enactment of an Egyptian Constitution which shall contain clauses accepting and sanctioning the reservation of certain rights to the British, and until certain indemnity and other arrangements (chiefly for the relief of discharged British officials) have been carried out. Among the rights which Britain stipulates to retain are the right to take such measures as may be necessary to protect the property and personal rights of foreigners in Egypt, and the right to maintain in Egypt the garrisons necessary to safeguard the imperial communications through the Suez Canal and into the Sudan; the latter area to remain under British rule. When the British Government provisionally renounced the Protectorate, it was not thought neces