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der the masterly direction of Field Marshal von taken together, might have furnished the mateHindenburg, after conquering Warsaw (August rial for an illuminating study of the Austro5), Brest-Litovsk (August 25), and Vilna (Sep- Serbian dispute, less interest was taken in the tember 18), was halted only by the swamps be many-colored official publications than in the fore Riga, the lakes before Dvinsk, and the documents semi-officially published by the Nordmarshes of the Pripet. (3) After two impor- deutsche Allgemeine Zeitung, and alleged to have tant Austro-Hungarian attempts to "punish been discovered in the Belgian government's arSerbia” had failed (in August and in Decem- chives by German invaders. To these documents ber, 1914), a new Austro-German invasion of the German apologists triumphantly referred in Serbia was undertaken in October, 1915, with support of their contention that Belgium had the aid of Bulgaria, and by the end of Novem- surrendered her neutrality to the Allies, since ber Serbia was completely conquered. Anglo Belgian military authorities had conferred with French forces attempting to interfere with the British military attachés in 1906, and in 1912, conquest of Serbia were defeated in the battle and had discussed plans for joint military acof the Vardar and driven back upon their base, tion against Germany. The Belgian governSaloniki, in Greek territory (December, 1915). ment frankly admitted that such conversations (4) Turkish armies engaged the Russians in had taken place, and justified them on the the Caucasus region, invaded Persia, repelled an ground that preparation to resist invasion was Anglo-French naval attack on the Dardanelles the duty of a neutral state. But the Belgian (March 18), withstood Anglo-French troops on government refused to admit the German allethe Gallipoli peninsula (April 25, 1915, to Jan- gation that the Anglo-Belgian military converuary, 1916), - delivered futile attacks on the sations were in the nature of a "convention” Suez Canal, and opposed a British invasion of or formal agreement binding the governments Mesopotamia. (5) The Italians, from May to of the two nations; and a second Belgian Grey December, 1915, advanced only a few miles into Book was published to prove that the Belgian Austrian territory, towards Trent and towards government had never contemplated allowing Gorizia. (6) Almost all of the German colo- British troops to be landed in Belgium for hosnies were captured: Kiaochow (in China) by tile operations against Germany, except in case the Japanese (Nov. 6, 1914); the German is- Belgian neutrality had previously been violated land possessions in the Pacific by the British by Germany. Even granting that no and Japanese; Togoland and Kamerun in Africa tral obligation had been contracted by the Belby Anglo-French forces; and German Southwest gian government, German polemists maintained Africa by British South Africans. German that by revealing her military secrets to the East Africa, however, repelled the British at- Allies, by preparing her German frontier more tacks.

strongly than her French frontier, and by omitDetailed accounts of the events here sum- ting to concert plans with Germany, as she had marized will be found in the YEAR BOOK for done with the Allies, for the defense of her neu1914 under the WAR OF THE NATIONS, in the trality, Belgium had violated the spirit of neupresent article, and in the articles on the Ger- trality. Furthermore, affidavits

reproman colonies. Additional information bearing duced by Mr. Alexander Fuehr, in his book on on the war is given in the articles on AGRICUL- The Neutrality of Belgium, to prove that TURE, The War and Agriculture; ANTISEPTICS ; French officers and soldiers had violated BelLABOR, German-Austrian Activities; MILITARY gian neutrality before the German

army PROGRESS; NavAL PROGRESS; SOCIALISM; in the crossed the frontier. In reply, pro-Ally controsections entitled History under AUSTRIA-HUN- versialists pointed out that, regardless of the GARY, BULGARIA, FRANCE, GERMANY, GREAT truth or falsity of these more recent accusaBRITAIN, GREECE, ITALY, RUSSIA, TURKEY; tions against Belgium, the German government, UNITED STATES AND THE WAR; and in the according to the public confession of the Gerbiographical articles on conspicuous generals man chancellor, had consciously violated interand statesmen.

national law by invading Belgium; that the

German declaration of war against Belgium II. CONTROVERSIALISTS ON THE WAR

was based, not upon Belgium's alleged con

spiracy with the Allies, but upon Belgium's perLess sanguinary than the battles in the fectly proper refusal to permit German armies trenches, but hardly less fiercely contested, was to pass through her territory; and, finally, that the wordy conflict waged between "pro-German” Belgium's guilt should have been proved before, an "pro-Ally” controversialists. Journalists rather than after, Belgium had been "pun. like Dr. E. J. Dillon, sober historians like J. ished.” While the more active controversialists Holland Rose, lawyers like James M. Beck, econo- continued to debate specific questions, the genmists like Dr. Karl Helfferich, statesmen, psy- eral public, particularly in neutral lands, wear. chologists, and retired university presidents, allied of the discussion of details and tended more have argued the case from a hundred different and more to disregard the ever-increasing mass angles. The publication of an Austro-Hunga- of "official" documents, from which apparently rian Red Book, a Serbian Blue Book, an Italian such contradictory conclusions could be drawn. Green Book, a second Belgian Grey Book, and "The vindication of the sanctity of treaty obadditional British, German, Turkish, and Rus- ligations" still figured as one of the ends for sian correspondence furnished valuable material which the Allies were fighting; but more freconfirming the story of the negotiations as out- quently the war was conceived, by "pro-Ally” lined in the YEAR Book for 1914 (article: WAR writers and speakers, simply as a defense of OF THE NATIONS, III. The Outbreak of War). democratic institutions against German bureauAlthough the documents appearing in these cracy, of small nations against German impepublications provided subject-matter for many rialism, of peace-loving peoples against Gerà controversial discussion, and although the man militarism, and of "humanity" against Red Book, the Blue Book, and the Green Book, German "barbarism.” From this rather

were

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critical standpoint, the success of the German trian seaport of Trieste (inhabited by Italians), military machine in conquering Belgium, Po- for a foothold in Albania, ensuring command land, and Serbia, and the development of a of the Adriatic, and possibly for privileges in frankly annexationist sentiment in Germany Asia Minor. On the other side, Enver Pasha (see GERMANY, Debate on Peace Terms) ren- and his “Young Turk” associates were perdered the German megalomania more than ever suaded that Turkey, in alliance with German menacing to the free nations of Europe and capital and with the aid of German industrial America, according to the belief of the more ex and military efficiency, was on the eve of a won. citable prophets of disaster. The spokesman of derful rejuvenation ; at the very least, Persia the Teutonic powers likewise evinced a tend- and Egypt would be emancipated and incorency to forget the particular incidents which porated in the Ottoman Empire. Bulgaria was precipitated the struggle, and to regard the war obviously determined to conquer Macedonia, to as the culmination of British commercial jeal. win a seaport at Salonikl, and to regain the ousy, of French revenge for 1871, of Russian ancient Bulgar capital of Ochrida. For the Pan-Slavic aspirations, of Italian perfidy. Both Dual Monarchy, the war was a desperate battle Germans and Allies delighted to picture their against the Pan-Slavic movement which threatantagonists as savages devoid of ordinary hu- ened to sunder Galicia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzemanity. The Germans accused the Belgians of govina, and other Slavic provinces from the the most revolting crimes against civilians as Hapsburg Empire; if successful, the war would well as of "sniping” German soldiers; the Serbs place a temporary restraint upon Russian Panhad committed similar outrages against Aus- Slavism, permanently abolish Pan-Serbianism, trian troops; the English had used dum dum” and secure Austro-German-Bulgar supremacy in bullets; the Russians had massacred Polish the Balkans. Lastly, for Germany, the war was Jews. Similarly the Allies published impres- popularly conceived as defensive, but the ruling sive official investigations of German “atroci- classes hinted, and the mass of the population ties” in Belgium and France, of Austrian appeared to be persuaded, that not only must crimes in Serbia, and of Turkish atrocities in Germany prevent Russia from annexing East Armenia. The Germans reproached the British Prussia and Posen, France from regaining Alfor endeavoring to "starve" innocent women sace-Lorraine, and Great Britain from "capturand children in Germany; the British charac- ing German trade,” but in addition Germany terized German Zeppelin raids and the sinking must fight to obtain "guarantees” for her fuof the Lusitania as wanton murder. The Ger- ture safety and prosperity; stronger strategic mans taunted their antagonists with reliance frontiers must be acquired by annexing a strip upon black and yellow soldiers—men of “in- of French territory from Verdun to Belfort and ferior” races—and upon British "mercenaries.” a part of Western Russia; the Baltic provinces The Allies reproached the Teutons for dragging of Russia must be "recovered”; Poland must be in the infidel Turk and the Bulgars stained with reconstituted under German influence as a buffer the wanton blood of the Balkan War. The ef- state against Russia; Great Britain must be fect of such recriminations was to fortify the compelled to respect the "freedom of the seas"; impression that the war was a war in defense and Germany's economic development must be of civilization, each side representing itself as ensured by obtaining commercial access to Antthe defender. Meanwhile expressions of opinion werp, by strengthening the Turco-Teutonic Emin influential circles in the belligerent coun- pire in the Near East, and by restoring, if not tries began to afford a more precise indication enlarging, the German colonial possessions. of the concrete interests at stake. Belgium was Only the most extreme imperialists favored the fighting for independence and indemnity; Ser. annexation of all Franco-Belgian territory now bia, for Greater Serbia, including the Austro- in German possession; more temperate patriHungarian provinces of Bosnia, the Herzegovina, ots looked for the barter of Belgium and and possibly Dalmatia, the Banat, and Croatia. northern France for colonial territory. France was determined to reconquer Alsace-Lorraine. British patriots were divided, some de

III. DIPLOMACY OF THE WAB manding the "complete destruction of German militarism,” others contenting themselves with Whereas, at the outbreak of the great war the restoration of Serbia and Belgium to inde- German diplomacy, with its blustering ultimapendence, Alsace-Lorraine to France, in addi- tums and its clumsy explanations, failed to ention to indemnities, the maintenance of British list the sympathies either of Italy, Germany's naval supremacy, and possibly the annexation ally, or of neutral nations outside of Europe, of some German colonies. British commercial during the year 1915 German diplomacy re organs gave the war a more predominantly eco- gained much of its lost prestige. The negotianomic character, and urged British business tions by which, on the one hand, Turkey was men to "capture German trade." Members of persuaded to cede the Dedeagatch Railway to the Russian government officially expressed the Bulgaria (see BULGARIA), and, on the other hope that the Austrian and Prussian parts of hand, the possible conflicts were obviated bePoland would be reunited with Russian Poland tween Austria-Hungary's Balkan ambitions and under the Russian sceptre, and that Russia Bulgaria's Macedonian claims, to the end that would gain freer access to the open sea to the Bulgaria might join in a quadruple alliance with southward, presumably by the conquest of Con- Turkey, Austria-Hungary, and Germany, were stantinople; under Russian control, the ancient not made public as yet, but their result, the citadel of Eastern Christendom would again be- joint invasion of Serbia and the opening up of come the recognized capital of the Orthodox the road from Berlin to Constantinople, was on Christian nations of eastern Europe. The Ital. its face a notable triumph for Teutonic diploian government went into the war purely and macy. Moreover, Rumania was kept neutral by simply for territorial aggrandizement: for the well-calculated promises, if the Bulgarian preItalian-speaking districts of Trent and the Aus- mier's statement may be credited; King Con

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stantine of Greece was strengthened in his ob- Franco-Belgian line could be held intact for a stinate refusal to allow the Venizelist parlia- few months longer, the Russian "hordes” would mentary majority to make war on Turkey; overwhelm Germany from the East, like an Prince von Buelow delayed the entry of Italy enormous military "steam-roller” or an irresistinto the war during the spring, when the Cen- ible “tidal wave.” After five months of the tral Powers needed all their troops on the Rus- war, neither “steam-roller" nor "tidal wave" sian and Franco-Belgian fronts. In justifying had materialized; the Russian invasion of GalGermany's submarine policy to neutral nations, icia was offset by the Teutonic invasion of Poand notably to the United States, the German land; several disastrous defeats had overtaken diplomatists were less successful, but at any Russian armies; and it was already becoming rate they avoided open rupture, without sac- apparent that without adequate railway facil. rificing submarine warfare. The diplomacy of ities, without proper training and equipment, the Entente Powers, on the other hand, suf- and without sufficient ammunition, the “Rusfered two serious reverses. First, Italy could sian hordes” could not seriously menace Gernot be induced to throw in her lot with the Al- many. In short, by the close of the year 1914 lies until many months had been wasted in par- it had become reasonably clear that neither the ley. Second, by pursuing a mistaken policy in efficiency of the Germans nor the numbers of the the Balkans, the Entente not only failed to Russians would suffice to achieve an immediate achieve its object-the reconstitution of the victory. In 1915, consequently, the war Balkan alliance against Turkey—but also es- vealed itself as a contest of endurance, in which tranged Rumania and Greece, so that instead mere battles might play a far less decisive rôle of entering the war in January, 1915, as had than political and economic factors. Regarding been expected, they remained neutral through- the situation in this light, the principal factors out the year. Over against these failures may upon which the Allies might count may be be set one great accomplishment, the inclusion summarized briefly as follows: (1) The imof Italy and Japan in the Pact of London. The mense naval superiority of the British and AlPact of London, it will be recalled, was the lied fleets would enable the Allies to make full agreement signed in London by representatives use of their commercial and colonial resources, of Great Britain, France, and Russia, Sept. 5, to draw upon neutral nations for munitions and 1914, binding their respective nations not to food, to transport troops freely from the remake peace except in concert with the others. motest regions of Australasia to European batJapan was included in the agreement on Oct. tlefields, and possibly to "starve Germany out” 19, 1915. Italy's adhesion was announced by by destroying her commerce and cutting off her Baron Sonnino to the Italian Parliament, Dec. food-imports; (2) the Allies expected that 1, 1915. As far as pledges could bind, the Pact "Kitchener's army," several millions strong, of London would be a bulwark of the solidarity amply supplied with munitions from English of the Coalition against the Quadruple Alliance, factories, would make possible a great offensive and would make it impossible for Germany to movement against the German lines in Belgium force her antagonists separately to surrender and France; (3) Italy's entry into the war upon humiliating terms. For further details seemed comparatively certain; (4) negotiations regarding the entry of Italy into the war, con- were under way, in January, for the reconsult the paragraph on that subject in this ar. stitution of the Balkan alliance of Bulgaria, ticle, and the separate article on ITALY; for de- Greece, Serbia, and Rumania, for a new tails regarding the Balkan situation, see The against Turkey; (5) the attitude of a few Diplomatic Failure in the Balkans (infra) and Socialists in Germany (see GERMANY) and the the separate articles on ALBANIA; BULGARIA; publication of reports regarding popular unFRANCE; GREAT BRITAIN; GREECE; RUMANIA; rest in Austria-Hungary (see AUSTRIA-HUNSERBIA ; TURKEY.

GARY) led Allied journals to predict an upris

ing of the masses against the ruling military IV. THE SITUATION ON Jan. 1, 1915 aristocracy in the Central Powers. On the other

hand, the Germans might hope: (1) That econThe course of the war in 1915 may be made omy, industrial efficiency, and submarines might intelligible only after the essential elements in compensate Germany for the loss of her overseas the situation at the beginning of the year have trade; (2) that the superior training and equipbeen clearly grasped. The battles of 1914, it ment of the German and Austro-Hungarian must first of all be remembered, were significant troops might more than counterbalance any principally because they exposed two momentous numerical superiority which the Allies might fallacies. The belief that before the terrific on- achieve; (3) that by skillful diplomacy Italy slaught of the German army, with its unrivaled might be persuaded to remain neutral, or at discipline and its ponderous howitzers, the re- least to delay a declaration of war until the sistance of France would wither and crumple Central Powers had further strengthened their up, was definitely relegated to the realm of fancy position; (4) that Bulgaria and possibly Ruby the battle of the Marne (Sept. 6–10, 1914); mania would espouse the Turco-Teutonic cause, the magnificent holding battle fought by the out of self-interest; (5) that the discontented French, after a long and a discouraging retreat millions in Egypt and in India, as well as the effectively dispelled the illusion that the swift disgruntled Irish Nationalists and the pacifist Prussian victory over France in 1871 could be labor organizations in England, might cripple repeated in 1914. By the close of the year, the British Empire in the war; (6) that the therefore, a sudden decisive German victory in amazing inefficiency already revealed in certain the West was no longer hoped for—or feared. branches of the Allies' organization, the absence The second fallacy was the popular Anglo-French of unity in the Allies' political and military proconfidence in the hugeness of Russia. In the grammes, and the apparent inability of the autumn of 1914, military critics in Allied coun- British and Russian governments to command tries had cheerfully predicted that if the Anglo- the confidence of the people, might lend inval

war

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