the former is situated the treaty port of Ningpo, and in the latter Shanghai. Nanking, with its siege rivalling that of Troy, was the seat of the Taiping Emperor, Hung Shiu Chuan, until the capture of the city by the Imperialists in 1864, when the Emperor of "Great Peace" perished in the flames of his palace, together with the luxurious Court he had gathered round him. Nanking is situated about two hundred miles from the sea, and midway is Kiang-yin, the gate through which the river debouches into the delta proper, a low alluvial plain formed from the debris of the western mountains, and daily growing seawards at an inconceivably rapid rate. The spring tides are only hindered by continuous embankments from still submerging this rich delta land-an expanse of paddy and cotton fields about equal in area to the whole of England. In the midst of this vast plain stands Shanghai, built on an affluent called the Wusung, which flows into the Yangtse some fifty miles above its mouth. The relation of Shanghai to the Yangtse proper is thus analogous to that of Chatham to the Thames, the Woosung forts taking the place of our Sheerness.

This outline sketch of the Yangtse valley may suffice to give those who have not studied the country in the many works published on China a rough impression of what the region is worth to us. The watershed or catchment area of the Yangtse basin comprises, outside the Tibetan plateau, the six large provinces of Szechuan, Hupeh, Hunan, Kiangsi, Ngan-hui, and Kiangsu, the greater part of Hunan and the northern drainage of Kweichow and Yunnan, a region exceeding 600,000 square miles in area. In my running commentary on the river I have tried to convey a real idea of its size, for in our atlases the maps of China (not even excepting the new muchadvertised Times atlas) are drawn on such an absurdly small scale as compared with those of other countries, that people generally have little idea of the great distances that have to be covered when travelling in the country. Although the Yangtse valley affords us a magnificent sphere of influence (if it is really to be regarded as ours), it must not be supposed that equally valuable regions are not to be found outside of it. Thus to the south of this region, which may be roughly described as lying between latitudes 28° and 32° North, we have, between latitudes 22° and 28° North, the five rich southern provinces of Fuhkien, Kwangtung, Kwangsi, Kweichow, and Yunnan, generally claimed as the French sphere, lying as they do to the north and west of the French possessions in Cochin-China and Annam. Then, to the north of our reputed sphere, between latitudes 32° and 50° North, lie the fine provinces of Shantung (German sphere), Chihli, Shansi, Shensi, and Kansuh, with Mongolia and Manchuria; these all enjoy the inestimable advantage of a temperate climate, produce the

healthy food suitable for Europeans-beef and mutton, wheat and potatoes and the finest race of men in the Empire, tall as Europeans and quite as hardy.

It is not easy to separate the trade of the Yangtse valley from that of the Empire generally; but, seeing that the regions adjoining the Great River produce three of the most valuable specialities of commerce―tea, silk, and opium-in better quality and in greater quantity than elsewhere; seeing that the great emporium, the coming New York of the Far East, Shanghai, is situated at its entrance; seeing, too, that in the products of its soil and in its teeming population it holds all the elements of industrial wealth, and that consequently (since the Japanese War enforced the permission to import machinery) new factories of every description are springing up all round; we may fairly divide the figures given in the latest Customs reports as under, and treat them as the property of the Yangtse region. They are as follows:

(Say) Two-thirds imported from and exported to Yangtse

£10,333,333

In this trade Great Britain and her colonies hold a two-thirds share, although we are being close run by Germany and the United States, and our proportion is, I regret to say, a steadily waning quantity.

The Imperial Maritime Customs figures are not an accurate exposition of the trade of West China, inasmuch as these only take account of goods shipped in "foreign" bottoms-i.e., in steamers and in junks flying a "foreign" flag. A not inconsiderable portion of the trade is carried on in so-called "likin " junks, which do not report to the "foreign" Customs. Hence, to give a fairly correct report upon the trade of Szechuan, I cannot do better than quote the figures collated by the recent Blackburn Commercial Mission. This thoroughly business-like mission, conducted by Mr. F. S. A. Bourne, a distinguished member of H.B.M. Consular Staff in China, spent the winter of 1896-1897 in carefully investigating the business resources of the province. Mr. Bourne writes:

"Szechuan exports chiefly raw or unmanufactured produce, as opium, salt, drugs, and raw silk. Her chief imports are raw cotton, native cotton cloth, and foreign goods—that is, goods imported into Shanghai from abroad, of which Lancashire cottons constitute about 30 per cent. and Indian yarn 44 per cent. There are no returns to consult, but I will risk an estimate of the exports from the whole province of Szechuan to the Eastern Provinces as £3,300,000.”

He then quotes :

Insect wax, tobacco, sugar, musk, wool, skins, hides, feathers,

bristles, &c.

600,000

£3,300,000

"Of the imports taken in return, I estimate cotton and cotton goods to account for no less than £2,400,000 in value.

"While the present state of things lasts, I believe there can be no great development in the Lancashire trade with Szechuan. To get a better result the following steps must be taken :

"The Yangtse must be navigated by steam from Ichang to Chungking, and thence on to Suifu."

Suifu is a large distributing centre situated on the Yangtse, 200 miles above Chungking, and 1700 miles above Shanghai.

So much for the trade of Szechuan, the richest, and at the same time the most distant, of the provinces which comprise the Yangtse valley. Of the other provinces intersected by the Great River, the following figures, compiled from the Customs returns for the year 1897, show the comparative trade value. Thus (exchange at 2s. 8d. per Customs tael):

The grand totals of the trade of the nine Treaty Ports in the Yangtse Valley, as published in the Imperial Maritime Customs returns for 1897, but which often necessarily report the same goods twice over as exports and as imports, are:

* Yoh-chow in Hunan was opened this year; hence no returns, the whole trade being carried on in unregistered native junks.

We have thus to-day a movement of some thirty millions sterling, carried on at nine points alone in the six great provinces traversed by the Yangtse River, and forming the Yangtse valley. It is no exaggeration to say that, given a stable and progressive Government, affording encouragement to capitalists with security for their investmentsresulting in improved means of communication and a corresponding development of its natural resources-the Yangtse valley will increase its trade by leaps and bounds, and the £30,000,000 of to-day will be £300,000,000 to-morrow. Give the whole people-a population in the region we are treating of at least 180,000,000 souls a fair chance to work and enrich themselves, and they will spend their money freely in foreign luxuries and necessaries, as do now the Chinese residents at the open ports. Let us hope that it is our destiny to take our due part in giving this security and opportunity to a much distracted country, and so share in the reward which a bold policy devoted to this end will surely bring us.

But it will be asked, Now you have described our sphere of influence, does such a vague thing really exist? In reply I would say that i is certainly not a "fact," but may be described as what philosophers term a "condition." Let us first see how the matter really stands between the British and Chinese Governments. This is the reply given by the Tsung-li Yamên (the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs) to our Minister's despatch to them on the subject:

"The TSUNG-LI YAMEN to SIR CLAUDE MACDONALD.
Kuang-hsü, 24th year, 1st moon, 21st day.
[11th February, 1898.]

"The Yamên have the honour to acknowledge the receipt of the British Minister's despatch of 9th February, stating that the Yamên had more than once intimated to him that the Chinese Government were aware of the great importance that has always been attached by Great Britain to the retention in Chinese possession of the Yangtse region, now entirely hers, as providing

security for the free course and development of trade. The British Minister would be glad to be in a position to communicate to her Majesty's Government a definite assurance that China will never alienate [any territory] in the provinces adjoining the Yangtse to any other Power, whether under lease, mortgage, or any other designation. The Yamên have to observe that the Yangtse region is of the greatest importance as concerning the whole position of China, and it is out of the question that territory [in it] should be mortgaged, leased, or ceded to another Power. Since her Majesty's Government has expressed its interest, it is the duty of the Yamên to address this note to the British Minister for communication to his Govern1 ment."

In any case, it is obvious that our "sphere of influence" is a pure mirage as long as it is not acknowledged by our rival Powers. When the Liberals were in office and Lord Rosebery was Prime Minister, France and Russia are said to have approached him on the question of the partition of China, and in this partition the Yangtse valley was to be allotted to Britain. Lord Rosebery is reported to have scouted the idea in toto, whereupon the partition, in which he might have had a preponderant voice, goes on quietly without him. Germany, with Bismarckian ruthlessness, has begun by seizing a province in a time of profound peace, and has staked it out as the private preserve of German traders and administrators. Russia has invaded Manchuria, and France is active in the provinces on her border. The much-vaunted open door" has been rudely slammed in our face, and it is useless to worry more about it. A strong sentimental regard for, if not admiration of, Chinese civilisation, coupled with a genuine liking for the people amidst whom I have spent my life, has ever led me to point out the value to the world of supporting the independence of China, and permitting as well as "aiding her to work out her reformation" in her own way as the Japanese were allowed to do, and, as I feel convinced, China in time would have done. But the Fates have decreed otherwise! What, then, should Britain now do? Clearly the course of a wise man, when he finds the front door irrevocably closed (for we surely cannot fight France, Russia, and Germany combined in order to force it open again, let alone the fact that these Powers have just as good a right to their opinion of the best way to mend "cracked China" as we have to ours) is to try another way round. Thus we have now nothing but the "sphere of influence" to fall back upon : if this is a mirage at the moment, it need not long remain so, provided our Government, with a united and determined nation to back it, will seriously tackle the problem and, not forgetting Bismarck's "Do ut des," not give it up until-by fair means if possible-our sphere in China is a firmly acknowledged fact, and not, as it is to-day, a subject for derision.

ARCHIBALD LITTLE.