POPULATION.

As the number of the population forms the basis of all vital statistics, it is essential that it should be correctly stated. In this State it is enumerated every five years (State and National census) making the nearest approach to accuracy. Its demographical object is to supply the necessary information as to the number of persons, their local distribution, their ages, sexes, civil condition, nativities and parentages. All these details are required for the exact tabulation of vital statistics, and the nearer they are collated with mathematical exactness the better will be the result. An estimate of the number of a population may closely approximate accuracy and be suitable for practical purposes, but is never wholly trustworthy. Where a large and steady flow of immigration is involved with the natural increase it is difficult to obtain a formula for approximate computation.

Of the various methods of determining the number of the population in non-census years, Walter F. Willson, chief statistician for methods and results in Census Bulletin No. 135, Twelfth Census of United States, selects from a number the following four methods as most important:

1. An estimate reached by assuming that the rate of growths between any two concensuses is maintained during the following decade.

2. An estimate based on the number of votes cast at an election.

3. An estimate based on a school census.

4. An estimate based on a directory canvass.

The great reliability that can be placed on this bulletin is indicated by the great care, scrutiny and analysis used in the compilation of the report. And the fact that neither of these methods of estimating the number of the population can be solely depended on is obvious. The census of persons of school age, if taken correctly, may form a fair basis on which

to forecast the number of the population; but Mr. Willson shows that this method is not always reliable.

The percentage of increase of population in Registration States, from 1890 to 1900, is as follows: Connecticut, 21.73 per cent.; Delaware, 9.64 per cent.; District of Columbia, 20.98 per cent.; Maine, 5.05 per cent.; Massachusetts, 25.29 per cent.; Michigan, 15.62 per cent.; New Hampshire, 9.31 per cent.; New Jersey, 30.36 per cent. ; New York, 21.19 per cent.; Rhode Island, 24.03 per cent. ; and Vermont, 3.37 per

cent.

The changes in the population of Massachusetts from 1765 to 1900, together with the annual rates of increase as shown by the Colonial, National and State census, are found in Table 1.

TABLE 1. Population of Massachusetts and Annual Rates of Increase, 1765-1900, compiled from Colonial, United States and State Census Reports.*

Includes 1,569 Indians, distributed by counties as follows: Barnstable, 515 (of which 230 were in Mashpee); Berkshire, 221 (in Stockbridge); Bristol, 167 (principally in Dartmouth and Freetown); Dukes, 313 (of which 188 were in Chilmark); Middlesex, 37 (in Natick); Nantucket, 93; Plymouth, 223.

Includes 4,761 colored population, distributed by counties as follows: Barnstable, 171; Berkshire, 216; Bristol, 585; Dukes, 59; Essex, 1,049; Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire (one county), 245; Middlesex, 702; Nantucket, 133; Plymouth, 487; Norfolk and Suffolk (one county), 682; Worcester, 432.

This percentage does not include in the population 1,569 Indians.
This percentage does not include in the population 4,671 colored.

* TABLE 2. - Births, Marriages and Deaths, with the Population and Rates and Ratio of Births to Marriages, 1851–1904.

2,558,437 72,343 23,651 49,381 22,962 28-27 18.09 19.30 8.97
2,618,048 73,205 23,038 47,419 25,786 27.96 17.57 18.11 9.85 3.09
2,679,048 73,110 22,142 46,761 26,349 27-29 16-53 17.45
2,741,470 70,457 23,523 47,710 22,747 25.70 17.16
2,805,346 73,386 24,342 51,156 22,230
17.35

3.13

9.83 3.17

17.40

8.29 3.18

26.16

18.23

7.92 3.12

2,870,710 71,976 24,891 48,275 23,701 25.07
2,937,596 72,219 25,685 47,491 24,728 24.58 17.48 16.17 8.41 2.81
3,006,041 73,584 26,940 49,054 24,530 24.48 17.90 16.34 8.14 2.86
3,076,081 75,014 25,993 48,482 26,532 24-39 16.90 15.76 8.62 2.86

* In all but census years the number of the population and the rates have been estimated,

in order that an approximate comparison may be made.

17.34

16.82

8.26

2.95

The data of previous reports were amended in a great degree in the report for 1890, but it was considered better to construct for the report for 1901 a new table from 1851-1901, with a uniform population and uniform ratios. The number of the population is estimated in non-census years and computations are made in this report on the basis of the figures in the new table.

The ratios to the living population for 1904 were as follows, as calculated on the estimated population of 1904, namely, 3,076,081

These rates would indicate 1 child born alive to 41 persons, 1 person married to 59 persons and 1 death to 63 living persons. The same data also indicate a daily average of 205 births, 71 marriages and 133 deaths during the year 1904.

In Table 2 are presented the number of the population, the number of births, marriages and deaths, the excess of births over deaths, the birth, marriage and death rates, the natural rate of the increase of the population and the ratio of living births to marriages for a period of fifty-four years. By this table it appears that the birth-rate of 1904 was less than that of the previous year and the smallest since 1879. The marriage-rate was less than that of the previous year and the smallest of any year since 1898.

The death-rate for 1904 was lower than last year, and the lowest since the beginning of registration.