In response to a request we anticipate receiving from Capitol Hill, we have calculated estimated injuries for five options involving repurchase of ATVs by manufacturers. and The assumptions and results of this evaluation are discussed for each of the five options in the sections following summarized in the attached Table. The options evaluated the manufacturer repurchase of 3 combinations of three and four-wheeled ATVS under different conditions; these included assumptions that all repurchased ATVs were resold either to the general public or to drivers 16 years or older, and assumptions that three-wheeled ATVs were not resold. All Owners of repurchased ATVs replaced them with four-wheeled ATVs. Based on these four year projections, the highest injury reductions would occur under the following conditions: Not reselling three-wheeled ATVS repurchased by Limiting resale of repurchased ATVs to drivers 16 years Maximizing repurchase of three and four-wheeled ATVs used were The options with the highest injury reduction per 100 ATVs repurchased Option D (4.5 injuries per 100 ATVs), Option E (2.5 injuries per 100 ATVs) and Option C (2.4 injuries per 100 ATVS). Option A Manufacturers would repurchase 30 percent of all three-wheeled ATVs (390,000) and 30 percent of the four-wheeled ATVs used by drivers under 16 years old (128,000). The resale of the three-wheeled ATVs would result in an increase of 4,4001/ injuries; the resale of the fourwheeled ATVs would result in a decrease of 900 injuries. The net effect would be an increase of 3,500 emergency room treated injuries or 0.7 injuries per 100 ATVs repurchased. These projections assumed that one-third of the ATVs would be resold to drivers with less than one year of experience. The risk of injury for the resale group would be lower than for the original group as shown in the Table below. These projections also assumed that for the ATVs repurchased in 1988, the percent in use would decrease each year as shown below: 1988 1989 1990 1991 1/ The original owner would replace the three-wheeled ATV with a four-wheeled ATV; the purchaser of the resold three-wheeled ATV was buying it instead of a four-wheeled ATV. Option B Manufacturers would repurchase all three-wheeled ATVS used by drivers under 16 years old (338,000) and 30 percent of three-wheeled ATVs used by drivers 16 years or older (289,000), a total of 627,000 ATVS. Manufacturers also would repurchase 30 percent of four-wheeled ATVs used by drivers under 16 years old (128,000). The 3-wheeled ATVs would be resold to drivers 16 years or older, resulting in a decrease of 10,700 injuries! and the four-wheeled ATVs would be resold to drivers 16 years or older, resulting in a decrease of 900 injuries. The net effect would be an decrease of 11,600 emergency room treated injuries or 1.5 injuries per 100 ATVs repurchased. These projection assumed that one-third of the ATVs would be resold to drivers with less than one year of experience. The risk of injury for the resale group would be lower than for the original owners as shown in the Table below: Drivers <16 Status Quo Resale or Replacement Drivers 16 Drivers 216 Drivers <16 Drivers 16 Drivers 16 1 year or more These projections also assumed that for the ATVs repurchased in 1988, The original owner would replace the three-wheeled ATV with a Option C Manufacturers would repurchase 30 percent of all three-wheeled ATVs (390,000 ATVs) and would not resell them. The sellers would replace them with four-wheeled ATVs. Manufacturers also would repurchase 30 percent of four-wheeled ATVS used by drivers less than 16 years old (128,000 ATVs) and would resell them. The effect of the replacement of the three-wheeled ATVs by the four-wheeled ATVS would be an 11,400 reduction in the injuries. The resale of the four-wheeled ATV would result in a reduction of 900 injuries. The net effect would be a reduction of 12,300 emergency room treated injuries or 2.4 injuries per 100 ATVS repurchased. These projections assumed that one-third of the four-wheeled ATVs would be resold to drivers with less than one year of experience. The risk of injury for the ATVs replaced or resold would be lower than for the original groups as shown in the Table below. These projections also assumed that for the ATVs repurchased in 1988, |