about Germany which would throw light on American Affairs. Human progress should not be considered under arbitrary geographical, or even ethnological, divisions.

The special feature of OUR OWN TIMES is that it grips the vital general movements of the period, dealing with each in turn and relating everything of importance in its proper connection, without duplication. Each chapter is devoted to one phase of history, which may be common to many countries. In some of the chapters the narrative carries the reader into all parts of the world. The value of this method is apparent; for example, in treating colonial expansion as a world movement, and grouping together the colonial activities of all the great Powers, instead of devoting a section under each country to colonial history. Here is history as it should be written; a readable narrative that is naturally interpretive by virtue of the sweeping plan on which it is prepared; that is accurate and comprehensive; that is not littered up with irrelevant facts or uninteresting figures. These qualities will appeal to every reader in his perusal of the volumes in this series.

THE PUBLISHERS.

CHAPTER I

THE KEYNOTE OF THE NEW CENTURY

The period of exclusiveness is past," said President McKinley in his last speech. The words sounded the keynote of the time. Though the President had in mind only the progress of his own country, his expression was entitled to a wider application, for the countries of Europe were restive under a similar new impulse. The Nineteenth Century had seen almost every valuable part of the world distributed. among the stronger Powers. Political colonization, both strategic and reproductive, had virtually come to an end. Of decadent governments, China, Korea, and Turkey had not succumbed, but their possessions were already marked down by keen eyes, and it seemed as though their actual sovereignty would soon be no more than theory. The irresponsible republics of South America still bickered among themselves, untouched by Europe, protected indeed by the great American Doctrine. But it was becoming clear that before very long the development of the natural resources of South America would be necessary to civilization, and that when the time should come means would be found to accomplish that development. The great nations had discovered the uses of their strength and they were beginning to make those uses profitable.

Europe had approached the problem of industrial colonization gradually. Even as she assumed control over new territories she tentatively began experiments in trade. But the United States was hardly thought of as a colonial competitor until the war with Spain. The results of that war were such as to thrust the United States squarely into the thick of international affairs, to make her a factor of high importance in the great movement of national expansion. Unexpectedly she appeared armed before the world. And her own Government was quick to seize the opportunity and to apply the country's energy to the administration of new possessions. The appearance of the United States as a

World Power was the most important immediate condition during the last two years of the Nineteenth Century, and the sudden rise of the United States to a climax of trade supremacy was the wonder of the first year of the Twentieth Century.

The equipment of the United States for international competition was shown in 1901 by the statistics of the twelfth census. The country's total wealth, which had been about sixty-five billion dollars in 1890, had risen by 1900 to about ninety-four billions. The per capita wealth had increased from $307.69 in 1850 and $779.83 in 1870 to about $1,235. The population had grown to 76,303,387. There were in 1900 nearly 513,000 manufacturing establishments, putting out products valued at more than thirteen billions of dollars. The number of farms had jumped during the decade from 4,500,000 to 5,700,000, with farm products valued in 1900 at about $3,764,000,000. Mine products had reached the amazing total of about five billion dollars. These few figures show the nation's growth at several points.

The American Advance

The following facts, moreover, will indicate the country's position in comparison with the European powers; Russia alone among the aggressive nations had a larger population than the United States. In European Russia, in 1900, were 112,000,000 people; in the United Kingdom 41,500,000; in Germany 58,500,000; in France 38,600,000; and none of these countries could record so high a rate of increase as the United States during the century. And as to trade, in 1900 the United States passed the United Kingdom in the total value of exports; eclipsed, in a word, the leading commercial nation of the world; and sent abroad an enormous total of products aggregating $1,477,946,113. In October the highest record for a single month was reached with exports valued at $163,389,680.

The rise of the United States was not viewed by Europe without concern. Foreign economists gave much attention to the phenomenon, and sought its why and wherefore. Summed up, the conclusion was that the Americans succeeded because they found zest in their work. One writer put it that the American business man "takes his pleasure in what he is doing." Another offered to his British readers such consolation as could be got from the statement that a democratic nation

THE HIGH TIDE OF PROSPERITY

3

will always outstrip an aristocratic nation because it has no better taste than to enjoy its toil. Again, the superior educational system the United States was named as an explanation.

Pertinent as these suggestions were, none of them went deep enough. They failed to recognize that the national scope of the movement indicated an impetus arising from both character and environment; that the American people, through a century-long democratic struggle with a new soil, had developed an energy that now required. a foreign outlet. Essentially the movement was a great national endeavor to sell surplus products. Great resources were back of it, and it was begun with a full realization that only a very shrewd effort could bring success in fields already occupied by nations of long experience in trade. The freshness of American interest had much to do with the early successes.

Shut in by a high tariff wall, American industry had made the best of its opportunity for development. At the beginning of the new century it was already highly organized. The tendency toward centralization was in full swing, with few signs of falling off. Prices were rising; wages were rising even more rapidly, in part because of the increasing demand for workmen and in part because of the successes of labor organizations. A fever of speculation was on the people so strongly that the New York hotels were crowded with strangers who had come to the metropolis to hazard money on Wall Street. Those who were poor tried to get rich, those who were already rich redoubled their energies in an endeavor to get richer. There was no doubt that out of prosperity had risen a speculative delirium. In November and December of 1900, after the re-election of President McKinley, more securities changed hands than ever before in a similar period. And yet there was also no doubt that the solid business interests of the country were on a surer basis than they had been for many years. The danger lay in the prevalent over-estimation of values.

The extreme to which inflation was carried, and the method of it, may be seen in a simple illustration. A syndicate, let it be supposed, agreed to consolidate the manufacture of some product. The consolidators got control of a factory worth, say, one hundred thousand dollars. They promptly issued three hundred thousand dollars of stock. against the factory and borrowed $120,000 on the strength of the new