by all graduate deans and university business officers, and I suspect by the Government auditors, too. I believe that sufficient cost data has now been gathered to enable the Commissioner to determine this payment in fairness to the institutions and to the satisfaction of Congress. Madam Chairman, I appreciate the opportunity to support the graduate fellowship provisions in H.R. 3000, and will be glad to attempt. to answer any questions the committee may have. (The formal statement referred to follows:) FORMAL STATEMENT BY DR. ALLAN M. CARTTER, VICE PRESIDENT, AMERICAN COUNCIL ON EDUCATION Mr. Chairman and members of the committee, it is a privilege to appear before you today to discuss graduate fellowships. I am Allan M. Carter, recently appointed Vice President of the American Council on Education; prior to January 1, I served as dean of the Graduate School of Duke University and was directly involved over the past 4 years in the problems of expanding graduate education. Members of this committee are well aware of the general need to expand graduate education, but a few brief preliminary comments may highlight the critical nature of the problem. 1. The "tidal wave" of students approaching college is not a temporary "wave" or "bulge"-but only the first impact of what will be a continuing increase in college enrollments over the next 15 years. College enrollment (see table I, col. 1) is expected to rise by increments of approximately 1.5 million students in each of the next successive 5-year periods. The leveling off of births after 1957 will provide a partial respite only after 1975. 2. The number of persons receiving bachelor's (or equivalent) degrees the potential entrants to graduate schools--will increase by about 30 percent in the next 3 years, and probably at least double by 1975 (table I, col. 2). These, I hasten to add, are conservative estimates, almost 25 percent below the estimates on which the President's Science Advisory Committee based its recent statement of goals. 3. The percentage of bachelor's degree recipients entering full-time graduate study has continually risen over the last decade (table II, col. 3). In 1961 the number of entering full-time graduate students was over 18 percent of the number who successfully completed undergraduate study. In view of more rigorous undergraduate training, more exciting career possibilities, and the general improvement in the motivation of today's college students, it seems highly likely that the proportion of students who pursue advanced degrees can and must continue to rise in the future without any diminution in quality. The number of additional NDEA fellowships requested in H.R. 3000 is still only a fraction of the needed fellowship funds from all sources to support this expansion over the next decade. 4. If the percentage of students pursuing graduate study does continue to follow the trend of the last decade, if sufficient fellowship funds become available, and if graduate facilities are doubled over the next 5 years, the Nation has a fair chance of doubling the number of Ph. D.'s by 1970. Even if this goal were achieved, and every new Ph. D. were to become a college teacher, we would only just be able to maintain the existing standards of quality of faculty in the Nation's colleges and universities. In fact, however, about half of these doctorates will fill critically important positions in private industry and in Government (particularly defense and space) programs. Thus even the optimistic projections I have suggested, based on the assumption that adequate support for fellowships and facilities is found, envisage a critical shortage of doctorates between 1965 and 1975. Although in the interest of brevity I have restricted my comments here to doctorates, the situation at the masters' degree level is equally serious. By its nature, graduate education is partly a national responsibility. Universities draw their graduate students from all regions of the country, and upon completion of their studies. Masters and doctors degree recipients take employ ment positions in many regions. The market for scholarly and scientific talents is national, not local or regional. Thus each university incurs a considerable cost each year to train skilled persons who will then go out as teachers in schools, colleges, and universities throughout the Nation, or who will fill important posts in private industry or government. The Federal Government, through its various departments and agencies, and most particularly in its critical defense, atomic energy, and space programs, is by far the largest employer of skilled scientific manpower in the Nation. No single State or local government can be expected to shoulder its full share of the Nation's needs for graduate education without seeing the problem in the national context and without assurance that all other institutions of higher education are doing their share. It is difficult for a major State university to carry the full load of rapidly expanding graduate education, spending millions of its State's public revenues for the training of scholars and scientists who will be employed in the other 49 States and in many foreign countries. Private universities have probably made their greatest contribution to the Nation's needs at the graduate level. Some 48 percent of the doctorates in the last few years have been awarded by private institutions, and since 1953 the rate of increase has been as great for private as for public universities. With limited sources of income, private universities will not be able to continue to supply this proportion of the Nation's doctorates without increased support for both fellowships and facilities. In view of the preceding observations, I would like to support strongly the expansion of graduate fellowships as proposed in part D, title I, of H.R. 3000. As indicated in table I, the number of potential entering graduate students in 1965 is likely to be 35,000 a year greater than in 1961 without any diminution in quality-and almost 100,000 a year greater in 1970 than in 1961. The proposed expansion of NDEA title IV seems to me to be critically necessary if the Nation is not to default in providing adequate higher educational opportunities to the young men and women now in the lower school grades. In its proposals, presented by President Odegaard to this committee on February 6, the American Council on Education recommended an immediate increase of NDEA fellowships to 5,000. I personally feel that 5,000 is an adequate goal for 1963-64, but would hope this committee would recommend raising the limit to 10,000 in one or two steps over the succeeding years. I am aware that proposals for expanding NSF and NASA fellowships in science areas are also being made: the great merit of NDEA is that it has provided a needed balance in support of graduate education. There has been an increasing tendency in recent years for graduate education to become a year-round operation. Particularly in the sciences, where contract research is heavily concentrated in the months when regular teaching demands are light, and where the National Science Foundation has provided awards for summer study, most graduate students are in residence 12 months of the year. As a result, the science disciplines have been the most successful in attempting to reduce the time required to earn a doctorate to the optimum 3 to 31⁄2 years. The extension of summer fellowships proposed in title I of H.R. 3000 would be a major factor in making for more effective year-round use of university facilities, and in substantially reducing the elapsed time for completion of doctoral study. If any change is made in the proposed figure of 2,000 summer fellowships, I personally hope it will be an upward revision. The proposed amendment to enable the Commissioner to establish a standard "cost of education" payment to the university attended by a fellow would be warmly applauded by all graduate deans and university business officers. I believe that sufficient cost data has now been gathered to enable the Commissioner to determine this payment in fairness to the institutions and to the satisfaction of Congress. Mr. Chairman, I appreciate this opportunity to support the graduate fellowship provisions of H.R. 3000, and will be glad to attempt to answer any questions the committee may have. TABLE I.-Graduate and undergraduate enrollment and degrees, 1950–62, and projections to 1975 1 Only information on total entering students (full time and part time) is available for these years; the estimates in column 3 assume proportions of full- and part-time students similar to 1959–61. 2 Office of Education estimates. See table II, B projections. Projections by the author based on the expanding pattern of graduate enrollment. TABLE II.-Entering graduate students and doctorates, projecting to 1975 Mrs. GREEN. Thank you, Dr. Cartter. And Dr. Moon, now, if we may hear from you. I am Rexford G. Moon, director of the Collegs Scholarship Service of the College Entrance Examination Board. I appear here today at your invitation to discuss various aspects of title I, H.R. 3000. I do not represent nor speak for the above-named organizations or any of their members. My prepared statement, a rather technical one, is already before you with certain attachments. The statement is in three parts. Part 1 concerns needs; part 2, current Federal efforts; and part 3 presents certain observations related to title I, H.R. 3000. I request that my statement be made part of the record and that I be permitted at this point to summarize briefly some of the main points in that statement. Mrs. GREEN. Without objection, the full statement of Dr. Moon will be made a part of the record. (The statement referred to follows:) STATEMENT OF DR. REXFORD G. MOON, JR., DIRECTOR OF THE COLLEGE SCHOLARSHIP SERVICE Mr. Chairman and members of the committee, I am Rexford G. Moon, Jr., director of the College Scholarship Service, an activity of the College Entrance Examination Board. The college board is a nonprofit educational organization with a membership of 504 colleges and universities, 41 educational associations, and 165 secondary schools. Four hundred and fifty-six of the Nation's colleges and universities participate in the activities of the College Scholarship Service. It is through the College Scholarship Service that the college board provides a variety of services to higher institutions, corporations, foundations, and State and local governments in the administration of all types of student aid programs. I appear here at your invitation and do not speak for the above-named organizations or any of their members. My statement is in three parts. I shall first comment on the need for increasing student assistance programs in this country, particularly at the undergraduate level. I will next describe and comment on current Federal efforts in the support of college students. Finally, I will comment on various aspects of title I in H.R. 3000. THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL PROGRAMS OF STUDENT SUPPORT The need for more doctors, teachers, and engineers becomes increasingly apparent every day. We are made conscious of the fact that many of our ablest youngsters don't go on to college. For some reason we never seem to see that in the solution of the latter problem there is a possible solution for the former. Neither concern is inseparable from the problem of financing an education, for these undermanned professions require the longest and most expensive types of college training. The latest figures from Project Talent indicate that at least 120,000 youngsters whose high school performances indicated the ability to achieve success in these needed professional areas did not enter college last fall. The number of students who started college but were unable to meet their expenses and did not return is not known at this date, but the loss over a 4-year period probably will exceed 40 percent of the total. Obviously, family finances have much to do with this problem. As table 1 indicates, 2 years from now 42 percent more youngsters will try to enter college than entered this past fall. These are the youngsters who will so seriously tax our institutional facilities and resources, but also the ones whom we expect to fill the teaching, medical, and scientific positions so clearly needed in our future. 1960-61.. 1961-62.. 1962-63 TABLE 1.-Age groups and college entrants in the 1960's 1963-64 3, 411,000 Source: "1963-65: Peak Year for Admissions Offices," by George H. Hanford, College Board Review (No. 48, fall 1962). 47.53 +104,000 +5.9 +11.2 The way college costs are increasing and college building plans lagging, many of these youngsters probably will not be able to continue their education. College aspirations are high among parents and their children and many of these aspirations become a reality. However, a disappointing number do not. A representative sample of parents with children under 10 studied by the Survey Research Center expect 73 percent of their children will attend college. Among parents with children of college age, however, only 30 percent of the children were actually attending college. Another recent study, reported by John Flannigan, showed that although 30 percent of high school seniors said they were not going to college, 57 percent actually did not go. Only about 36 percent of the 18-year-olds in the country entered college this past fall (table 1). When considered from the perspective of the family purse, the figures are even more revealing. Among those families with incomes in excess of $10,000, 95 percent with children under the age of 10 expect their children to attend college; of those at this same income level with 18- and 19-year-olds, 70 percent are going or plan to go to college. Similarly, at the $5,000 to $7,500 family income level, 80 percent expect their children to go to college but only 40 percent actually do so. Among families with less than $3,000 income, 40 percent expect to go but less than 20 percent do. If there are doubts about the importance of money in considering this problem let me cite Elmo Roper and his study for the Ford Foundation. It nicely illustrates the effect which the presence or absence of money has on family attitudes toward higher education. Drawing from a cross section of American families with children still some years away from college, the study showed among other things: 1. That financial reasons are given as the most likely major deterrent to college attendance by those of low economic status, but they are not even mentioned as a possible deterrent by those of high status; 2. That the interest in State-supported institutions for those of high and low economic status is equal, but there is a marked disparity in the aspirations toward attendance at private institutions; 3. That attending college away from home is a probability for those of high economic status, but only a slim possibility for those of low status; 4. That families generally underestimate the current cost of attending college and do not anticipate probable future increases in such costs; 5. That high status families expect to pay more for, and a greater share of, college expenses than low status families, though the latter group still expects to contribute 70 percent of costs; 6. That, interestingly, families of high economic status expect significantly more scholarship aid than families of low status; 7. That the willingness to borrow may be assumed to be equal for families at all income levels; 8. That the willingness for children to work is lowest in the high status group, highest in the low status group; 9. That saving for education is practiced by a small majority of those of high status but by only a small minority of those of low status, but in neither group is the average amount of savings substantial; 10. That the greatest certainty about all aspects of the educational future of their children is expressed by high status families, the greatest uncertainty by families of low status. The sharp contrasts in plans and attitudes related to higher education that are expressed by parents in the high and low economic groups in Mr. Roper's study indicate an obvious cause-and-effect relationship. The study also suggests that even for those economic groups where college attendance is almost a certainty the parents are not prepared to cope financially or psychologically with the problems of financing an education. It further suggests that the lower economic groups may take a more realistic view toward educational financing than the highest group. Two factors are responsible for this. College expenses are much higher than anticipated, and family preparations to meet them are inadequate. Recent studies show that more than half of the parents of the pre-college-age children expect their children to enter publicly supported universities. Yet at an institution like the University of Illinois, the average 4-year expenses for an undergraduate in State resident total $6,400. For an out-of-state student the expense is $8,500. Graduate student expenses average $2,300 per year. Expenses at private colleges now average close to $10,000 for 4 years and as high as $12,000 at some. Parents, when asked recently about the financial preparations they have made |