The clamor for retrenchments, for economy, for reduction of commitments, for recovery of trade at whatever cost to national honor and pride; the agitation of pacifists, radicals, and suchlike tribes, war-weariness, and a certain general slackening of the will to empire, probably only temporary, have greatly embarrassed the Government in its foreign policy. Persia (northern Persia, that is, for I cannot believe that Britain has abandoned the oil-fields of southwest Persia, or Bushire, or the railroad route to India) has been allowed to throw herself into the eager arms of Moscow. The British force in Mesopotamia has been reduced from 100,000 to 15,000; the latter obviously insufficient to maintain mandate authority in the new Kingdom of Irak should the tribesmen fall foul of each other, or to protect the Mosul oilfields should Turk or Muscovite invade. The protectorate of Egypt is to be given up and the poor fellaheen are to be turned over for "exploitation" by the most rascally and rapacious upper class on this or, doubtless, any other planet. The policy of the Government toward Turkey has been fatally vacillating; with result that, while on the one hand the Treaty of Sèvres has been allowed to go by the board, while Mustapha Kemal has been permitted to thrash the Greeks and assert his rebellious authority over Anatolia, and while, incidentally, the Armenians have infamously been abandoned, on the other hand Britain is held responsible by the Islamic world (including, what is most important, the 70,000,000 Mohammedans of India) for the humiliation of the Caliph; the which has given an impetus to the pan-Islamic development, and in India has caused the Mohammedan leaders to ally themselves with Gandhi in the menacing non-coöperation movement.

But least of all like the old imperial and imperious Britain of Chatham, Channing and Palmerston, has been the Russian policy of the British Government. In the fatuous hope of buying off the Bolshevist anti-British propaganda and other activities in the East, the British Government concluded its trade-agreement with Moscow. The results have been: as to trade, nothing; as to propaganda, an increase thereof.

I have drawn a rather gloomy picture of Britain and the Empire. The retrospect is indeed dark; but the prospect is in general of a sober cheerfulness. There is, however, in that prospect an area,

which I take to be Ireland, gazing at which the vision is perplexed; now a momentany gleam of celestial light, anon crépuscule, then "darkness visible,"-again the gleam, and so on.

The Germans continued to shuffle, to evade in respect of disarmament and reparation up to May 1, the time limit set by the Versailles Treaty for definitely fixing the reparation total. In January the Supreme Council, sitting at Paris, drew up a reparation programme which the German Government contumeliously rejected. In March a German delegation headed by Simons presented to the Supreme Council, sitting in London, a counter-programme, remarkable for the ridiculous smallness of the reparation offered and for the violence of its assertion of German innocence. In the most eloquent of his speeches Lloyd George contemptuously rejected the German offer, reaffirmed (with telling citation) German guilt, and announced that, should an adequate German offer not be presented at once, penalties would be imposed. Such offer not forthcoming, Allied troops occupied the important industrial towns of Düsseldorf, Ruhrort and Duisburg, and the vexatious Rhine customs barrier was erected. The sorry business dragged on, Germany hoping for a favorable "break". On the very eve of the fateful May 1, the German Government played its last card, inviting the United States Government to arbitrate and fix the reparation total. The American Government of course declined, but offered (with the consent of the Allied Ambassadors at Washington) to bring to the attention of the Allied Governments proposals which should "present a proper basis for discussion". The German Government submitted proposals which did not present such a basis, and was advised by Washington to go direct to the Supreme Council with "clear, definite and adequate proposals". Nine French divisions were held ready to invade the Ruhr basin. But the Supreme Council acted with clemency and magnanimity. It waited, at London, until May 5 for “clear, definite and adequate proposals"; but in vain. On May 5 the Supreme Council addressed an ultimatum to the German Government. That Government must promise to pay the bill declared by the Reparations Commission (132,000,000,000 gold marks), must pledge imme

diate disarmament as per the Treaty and the Spa agreement, and must engage to bring to trial the Germans accused of war-crimes. It must subscribe these terms before May 12. The Fehrenbach cabinet resigned. On May 11 a new cabinet headed by Wirth subscribed the terms, and the Reichstag ratified.

Ah! it is one thing to subscribe; it is quite another to fulfill. What has been done towards fulfillment, and what are the prospects as to further fulfillment? The Reparations Commission provided for merciful gradation of payments so that the first instalments should be very easy. The instalments to date have been paid, but there is doubt about the instalment due November 15. The Reparations Commission granted fifteen days of grace, on the understanding that the money would surely be paid down on December 1 through a loan from the German industrial magnates. But there is doubt about that loan. Acceptance of the conditions attached would amount to repudiation of the experiment of State Socialism and to acknowledgment of Stinnes, Stresemann, Thyssen and Company as a Super-Government. The Reparations Commission is in Berlin, investigating. The reparation prospect is dubious. The Wirth "Government of fulfillment" holds by the most precarious of tenures. The paper mark is almost precisely naught. A declaration of bankruptcy seems inevitable, unless the industrial chiefs will otherwise. But many think that the industrial chiefs have planned bankruptcy. At any rate, the flourishing condition of German industry is not consistent with honest bankruptcy. Bankruptcy then; what next? A reparations moratorium; that's the answer.

It is not the answer. I take it the industrial chiefs hope for two things: to vassalate or supplant the present Government, and to bluff the Powers into granting suspension of reparation payments and reduction of the reparation total. This new bluff will be called; and rather than have an Allied Commission of Liquidation running the country, Allied occupation of the Ruhr basin, their grandiose schemes shattered, these gentlemen will coöperate in putting German finance on a working basis.

It is almost precisely a year ago that General Wrangel, with a remnant of his army, took shipping at Sevastopol, and the last

great White attempt to overthrow the Red régime in Russia ended in disaster. The history of Russia during the past twelve months lacks color and incident compared with the history of the stirring years preceding. There has been the usual crop of émeutes and insurrections, scantily and obscurely reported, but, except for Ukrainia, where insurrection is chronic, they appear to have been stamped out. At one time Western Siberia seemed entirely lost to Moscow, but, in the elegant language of a Soviet official, “the unhappy events along the Trans-Siberian have been completely liquidated." Tchitcherin apparently speaks truly when he claims that the Muscovite power has been greatly consolidated in the past year. He points with pardonable pride to the treaties concluded with Nationalist Turkey, Persia, Afghanistan, Bokhara and Khiva. Of these states Bokhara and Khiva have been in fact vassalated, and Persia and Afghanistan have been cleverly converted into Bolshevist spheres of influence. But despite the treaty there is reason to believe that relations between Moscow and Mustapha Kemal have become distinctly cool. If that is true, it is one of the most important developments of the year. Not long ago Muscovite detachments cut short the career of that White adventurer Baron Ungern-Sternberg and helped to establish a Soviet Government in Mongolia; most bizarre of political creations. Muscovite influence dominates the Far Eastern Republic; sufficiently proved by the fact that a Muscovite delegate has been admitted on terms of equality to the negotiations at Dairen between representatives of Tokio and Chita. Diplomatic relations have been established with Berlin. Transcaucasia has been completely incarnadined; the “Transcaucasian barrier' (Georgia and Caucasus Armenia before their conquest) is no more. Soviet Russia marches with Nationalist Turkey. And, finally, there is that supreme triumph, the trade-agreement with Britain. So much on the whole to the good. But to the bad? The trade-agreement has not improved relations with London. Tchitcherin thought he had taken the measure of the British and could go any length in insolence and perfidy. He continued his anti-British propaganda in the East. Two recent caustic notes from Lord Curzon to Tchitcherin indicate that Britain is of a mind to chuck that ignoble connection. The refusal of the British

Government to extend credits for famine relief is attributable to conviction of Bolshevist bad faith.

Communism has shortened sail. It is trimming its boat. The crew remains the same, the port the same. But the course has been changed; they dare not yet undertake the dangerous navigation ahead. The date of arrival is indefinitely postponed. To change the figure, it is found necessary to pretend friendship with the Mammon of Unrighteousness. Fanatic zeal for the worldrevolution and the dictatorship of the proletariat is unabated, but must be dissembled for a space.

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Spain continues to be bedevilled by the Syndicalists, who have revived murder as a fine art. An insurrection of tribesmen had almost cleared the Spanish Zone of Morocco of Spanish detachments, but fresh Spanish troops are recovering the ground inch by inch.

Italy for the most part saws wood and waits for better times, but of late the Fascisti and Communists have taken again to knocking each other o'er the pate. The chief menace to outward peace was removed by consummation of the Treaty of Rapallo, which adjusted the boundaries between Italy and Jugoslavia and settled the Fiume question.

The Succession States, formed or augmented from the shattered Austro-Hungarian Empire, have not yet levelled their preposterous economic barriers raised against each other. They will probably do so in the near future, when prosperity should follow. The misfortunes of Austria especially engage the sympathy of the world, which is inclined to forgive her participation in the war and to remember only her great contributions to science and art -Mozart, Schubert and the rest. The League of Nations proposes to apply for Austria's benefit the Ter Meulen credit scheme. If prosperity should result, the clamor for union with Germany would probably cease.

For reasons not clear, Hungary has been permitted to maintain an army far in excess of the Trianon Treaty allowance, to the alarm of Czechoslovakia, Jugoslavia and other neighbors. At last the great Allies have taken order to disarm her, whereby her head will be reduced to reasonable dimensions. Charles