Opinions concerning the future are usually colored by optimism. Whatever humanity needs we think it will ultimately have. This confidence is strengthened by the fact of progress, and in particular, by a mechanical progress that is unmistakable and rapid. Machinery, as it seems, must soon lighten labor and enrich the workers' lives.

This forward movement of society and the hopeful attitude that goes with it, are necessary to make life in the present worth living. A static condition, though it were full of comforts, would be intolerable. The picture of a stationary state presented by John Stuart Mill as the goal of competitive industry is the one thing needed to complete the impression of dismalness made by the political economy of the early period. A state could not be so good that the lack of progress would not blight it; nor could it be so bad that the fact of progress would not redeem it. A static paradise would be intolerable; but a dynamic purgatory would have at least one supreme charm, and would be the better state of the two.

The decisive test of an economic system is the rate and direction of its movement. How will our own sys

1 Opening address of the President of the American Economic Association, at its eighth annual meeting, in Indianapolis, Dec. 27, 1895.

A man must consume a variety o is to do him much good. In an come would glut the particular w ters. Give the man only food til

him clothing till he is over-burdenes' apoi a unit of his income is worth nil. Div Jumption and you relieve the difficulty. Larg、 nts of wealth will not now pall on him.

An isolated man could not secure the needed variety of goods. By becoming a Jack-of-all-trades he might make for himself a few different things. If he carried the process far he would lose, as a producer, more than he would gain as a consumer. Effective production demands specialization. A man should produce only one thing or a part of a thing. Isolated life would be static. The law of consumption, demanding diversification, and the law of production, demanding specialization. would work against each other and bring economic proIt is a deadlock created by the primary gress to a halt. economic forces.

Exchanges remove the deadlock. They enable the primary forces of economic life to work together instead

of against each other. By producing for a market and getting goods from a market a man gets the benefits that come from varied consumption, and also those that come from specialized production. He may produce only one thing and yet secure many. This compounding of gains hurries the social man forward in a race of improvement. More and more minute in kind becomes. his own production. He may put one small touch on one commodity, and yet lay the world under tribute to furnish articles for the satisfaction of his countless wants.

By virtue of his economic nature, as well as for other reasons, man is a social being. To gratify the two cardinal tendencies of his economic nature he accepts the restrictions of society. There is no doubt that, on the economic side, social life restricts. Civil law is in a way restrictive; yet nothing in it so dominates the individual as does economic law. This latter force it is that puts the man into a shop, keeps him there for ten hours a day, and minutely dictates what he shall do. It is beginning to be understood that, while we do indeed live in freedom, we live, move and have our being as society collectively wills. We may work or not as we please; but if we do not work, society will not present to us the multiform gifts that our wants require. We may choose our occupation; but if we so choose as not to conform our products to the needs of the world, we shall get but little from the world. The collective will is practically dominant.

It is now understood that economic problems cannot

tem bear that test? Has it the power always to progress? It is now what it is,-neither as good nor as bad as it might be; but if it is sure always to improve, what it is now is of secondary consequence.

Theory should give an a priori answer to the question. Certain forces are now acting, and at present they ensure improvement. The progress begins with the formation of a society. Association is a dynamic fact. A man must consume a variety of things if his income is to do him much good. In any one form, a large income would glut the particular want to which it ministers. Give the man only food till he is satiated, or give him clothing till he is over-burdened, and the final unit of his income is worth nil. Diversify his consumption and you relieve the difficulty. Large amounts of wealth will not now pall on him.

An isolated man could not secure the needed variety of goods. By becoming a Jack-of-all-trades he might make for himself a few different things. If he carried the process far he would lose, as a producer, more than he would gain as a consumer. Effective production demands specialization. A man should produce only one thing or a part of a thing. Isolated life would be static. The law of consumption, demanding diversification, and the law of production, demanding specialization would work against each other and bring economic progress to a halt. It is a deadlock created by the primary economic forces.

Exchanges remove the deadlock. They enable the primary forces of economic life to work together instead

of against each other. By producing for a market and getting goods from a market a man gets the benefits that come from varied consumption, and also those that come from specialized production. He may produce only one thing and yet secure many. This compounding of gains hurries the social man forward in a race of improvement. More and more minute in kind becomes his own production. He may put one small touch on one commodity, and yet lay the world under tribute to furnish articles for the satisfaction of his countless wants.

By virtue of his economic nature, as well as for other reasons, man is a social being. To gratify the two cardinal tendencies of his economic nature he accepts the restrictions of society. There is no doubt that, on the economic side, social life restricts. Civil law is in a way restrictive; yet nothing in it so dominates the individual as does economic law. This latter force it is that puts the man into a shop, keeps him there for ten hours a day, and minutely dictates what he shall do. It is beginning to be understood that, while we do indeed live in freedom, we live, move and have our being as society collectively wills. We may work or not as we please; but if we do not work, society will not present to us the multiform gifts that our wants require. We may choose our occupation; but if we so choose as not to conform our products to the needs of the world, we shall get but little from the world. The collective will is practically dominant.

It is now understood that economic problems cannot