question. I suppose that, even in a protec- four powers represent the foreign trade tionist country, such as the United States, no one will deny the advantages of such a policy as applied to American exports to China; and that, whether the American manufacturer prefers to have preferential rights at home or not, it must be to his advantage that he has an equal opportunity with the foreigner abroad, and that no foreigner secures preferential rights in China which would leave American trade in the cold. This being so, only the question of the cost remains to be calculated, and how such a policy is to be carried out if adopt ed. It is upon this point that I think some of the American journals misunderstood my arguments, which probably were not sufficiently clearly stated. I deny that this policy can lead to war, or that it will cost the United States a single cent or a solitary soldier to carry it out. interests of China, the proportion divided up among other nations being so inconsiderable that it has no such strong claims. These four powers. therefore, have a moral right to protect their own interests and the ability to do so. If they agree to combine, not for purely selfish motives, but to guarantee the independence of China and the maintenance of a fair field and no favor for all comers, who can suppose that any other power could reasonably (or even unreasonably) object? The whole raison d'être of such an understanding would lie in the fact that it would be too powerful to attack, and that it could maintain the peace while preserving the open door to all. There would be no menace to other powers in such a combination, because the bond of agreement between the contracting parties would be the preservation of the open door with equal opportunity for all. To China herself the powers would prove friends in need. By guaranteeing her integrity, they would give a new lease of life to the Chinese Empire. They would be entitled to ask, and powerful enough to secure. that reforms for the benefit of China and the improvement of foreign trade should be carried out. The reorganization of China's finances and her army would enable her to stand alone in the near future. It is not necessary to go to Congress, or to the Imperial Parliament, to secure the men necessary to assist China to effect these reforms. As long as the four governments induced China to undertake the reforms in return for their protection, men would easily be secured from all of these countries, and also from other nations, who would assist the Chinese in building up their empire on more stable foundations. The first thing is to see how this policy is to be undertaken, and then we can es timate the cost of it. It means a policy to be inaugurated now, whereas the alternative policy is a policy of procrastination. This is a most important point, when it is remembered that there are only two powers ready to go to war in China to-day, or who can possibly do so with any chance of success. As time goes on, this will be altered. At the present moment Great Britain, with her enormous fleet in Far Eastern waters, and the 100,000 native troops she can bring up from India within a shorter time than any other power can land an army, combined with her possession of the chief coaling stations, is pre-eminently in a position to deal with the China question by war, if she so desired. Next to her comes Japan, with a fine fleet in close proximity to the scene of operations, and a capacity to land The moral and political support of 200.000 troops in China at any moment. China by the four powers I have named Apart from these two, the United States, is all that is needed. They need not exby her position on the other side of the pend a single shilling, or move a single Pacific, and the object-lesson she has just man, officially, in order to carry it out. given the world of her ability to mobilize All that is required is that China shall be men and ships rapidly and effectively, has assisted, and, in return for such assistalso to be counted with; while, as any ance, shall employ foreigners of all countrouble in China would probably mean tries who will reorganize her army and European complications, Germany would her finances on as sound lines as the imhave to be regarded as an important perial maritime customs of China is esfactor in the position. Above all, these tablished. CHINA AND THE POWERS-CHINESE-AMERICAN RECIPROCITY Observation of recent events teaches us that, if we continue to leave China to herself without recuperative power from within, or firm and determined assistance from without, her ultimate disintegration is only a question of time. The reforms which are urgently required in China, both for the benefit of that empire and its people, and for the development of the trade of friendly nations, may be shortly summarized as follows: 1. The appointment of a foreign financial adviser to direct the administration and collection of internal revenue. 2. The reform of currency, so as to afford a more stable exchange. 3. The establishment and centralization of mints. 4. The abolition of the present octroi and likin charges on goods which have already paid duty at the ports. In return for this, China should be allowed to increase her present tariff. Trade would not be damaged so much by slightly in creased taxation, as it is injured and hindered by the delays and uncertainties of the present fiscal system. 5. The rearrangement of the salt monopoly, and general administrative reform. 6. The establishment and maintenance of a proper military and police, capable of affording that protection to which the foreign merchant is entitled for himself or his goods. 7. The opening up of the country and its resources, by giving greater facilities to native or foreign capital in the de velopment of the minerals of the country, and improvements in the lines of communication, including postal and telegraphic reforms. long as she retained the foreign officers. The idea that the Chinese are not good soldiers is a great mistake. I was permitted to inspect most of the armies, and all of the forts and arsenals of China, as will be seen by the detailed account in my report, and I am convinced that, properly armed, disciplined, and led, there could be no better material than the Chinese soldier. I leave it to the commercial classes of the United States to say whether it is not worth their while to incur such slight risks for such great profit, and for so good an object. On sound business lines this policy appeals to the American nation; but, in addition to that, are we going to let this opportunity slip of drawing the two Anglo-Saxon nations together for the cause of civilized progress, and the benefit of the world at large? Great nations have great responsibilities, to which they must be true, and when those responsibilities and self-interest go hand in hand, it would be unwise to miss the opportunity. Events are moving very rapidly in the Far East. A decision must be arrived at, and action of some sort taken very soon. It is the duty of Great Britain to lead, and I believe that the United States will not refuse to follow, but that both nations will combine to hoist aloft the banner of civilization and industrial progress, for the benefit of their own people, as well as for the benefit of China, and of the world. Chinese-American Reciprocity. His Excellency Wu Ting-Fang, Chinese minister to the United States, writes as follows: Trade, which lies at the foundation of 8. The right of residence in the interior international intercourse, has an eminently to be conceded to foreigners. 9. The promotion of all reforms and the introduction of all changes which are likely to promote the cause of civilization and the well-being of the Chinese people. selfish origin. It is a constant manœuvre on the part of men to sell dear and buy cheap. Since each party in a commercial transaction seeks only his own advantage, it was for a long time thought that one of them could gain only at the expense of the other. Thus the "mercantile system." which for centuries held Europe spellbound, made gold-getting the end and aim of all commercial activities. The promotion of friendly relations with the object of securing an exchange of benefits was not considered of even secondary importance. Then came the navigation laws, Such a coalition as that of the four great trading powers I have mentioned could obtain these reforms with advantage to themselves and benefit to China, and, indeed, the trading world. In a very few years, with this assist ance loyally rendered, China would have an army capable of protecting herself, as which had for their avowed purpose the crippling of all rival shipping by laying a heavy tax upon the carrying-trade of foreigners. Though such measures are no longer considered advisable in the commercial world, their baleful effects are still felt in the political thought of the present time. Nations now enter into friendly relations with each other because it is believed that both sides are benefited by such relations. Their transactions cannot be one-sided affairs, for the simple reason that it takes two to make a bargain. If one party is dissatisfied with the arrangement, the other party will not long have an opportunity to enjoy its benefits. Confucius was once asked for a single word which might serve as a guiding principle through life. "Is not reciproc ity such a word?" answered the great sage. "What you do not want done to yourself, do not do to others." This is the "Golden Rule" which should govern the relations of man to man. It is the foundation of society. It lies at the bottom of every system of morality, and every system of law. If it holds good with respect to individuals, it ought to hold good with respect to nations, which are but large aggregations of individuals. Therefore, if permanent relations are to be established between two nations, reciprocity must be the key-note of every arrangement entered into between them. Having recognized this great principle of international intercourse, how shall we apply it to the case of China and the United States in such a manner as to result in mutual helpfulness? Assuredly, the first thing to do is to take a general survey of the situation and see what are the needs of each country. Then we shall perceive clearly how each may help the other to a higher plane of material development and prosperity. The United States now has its industrial machinery perfectly adjusted to the production of wealth on a scale of unprecedented magnitude. Of land, the first of the three agents of production enumerated by economists, the United States is fortunately blessed with an almost unlimited amount. Its territory stretches from ocean to ocean, and from the snows of the Arctic Circle to the broiling sun of the tropics. Within these limits are found all the products of soil, forest and mine that are useful to man. With respect to labor, the second agent of production, the United States at first naturally suffered the disadvantage common to all new countries. But here the genius of the people came into play to relieve the situation. That necessity which is "the mother of invention" substituted the sewing-machine for women's fingers, the reaper for farmhands, the cotton-gin for slaves. The efficiency of labor was thereby multiplied, in many cases, a hundred-fold. The ingenious manner in which capital, the third agent of production, is put to a profitable use is equally characteristic of America. It is well known that there is an enormous amount of capital in the country seeking investment. Every one who has a little to invest wishes to obtain as large a return as possible. Since competition reduces profits, the formation of industrial combinations, commonly called trusts, is for the capitalist the logical solution of the difficulty. These enable the vast amount of capital in the country to secure the best results with the greatest economy. Whether they secure the greatest good to the greatest number" is another matter. The development of the resources of the United States by the use of machinery and by the combination of capital has now reached a point which may be termed critical. The productive power of the country increases so much faster than its capacity for consumption that the demand of a population of 75,000,000 is no sooner felt than supplied. There is constant danger of over-production, with all its attendant consequences. Under these circumstances, it is imperative for the farmers and manufacturers of the United States to seek an outlet for their products and goods in foreign markets. But whither shall they turn? At first sight, Europe presents perhaps the most inviting field. Both blood and association point in this direction. But here the cottons of Lowell would have to compete with the fabrics of Manchester. The silk manufacturers of Paterson would stand small chance of supplanting the finished products of Lyons. The sugar of Louisiana would encounter a formidable rival in the beet-sugar of Germany. Eng land could probably better afford to sell her coal and iron cheaper than Pennsylvania, and Russia could supply European markets with wheat and petroleum as well as could Ohio and Indiana. Competition I would be keen and destructive. Central and South America have as yet too sparse a population for the immense territory they cover to meet the conditions of a market for American goods. Some decades must elapse before American farmers and manufacturers can look to that quarter for relief. $1,000,000. But I noticed in the statistics published by the United States government for the year 1899 that manufactures of iron and steel have also passed that mark. This is due to the fact that China has now begun in real earnest the work of building railroads. The demand for construction materials is great. The value of locomotives imported in 1899 from the United States was $732,212. Besides the articles mentioned, there are many others of American origin which do not figure in the customs returns as such. These find their way into China through adjacent countries, especially Hong-Kong. At least threefourths of the imports of Hong-Kong, notably wheat, flour, and canned goods, are destined for consumption in the Chinese mainland. But on the other side of the Pacific lies the vast empire of China, which in extent of territory and density of population exceeds the whole of Europe. To be more particular, the province of Szechuen can muster more able-bodied men than the German Empire. The province of Shantung can boast of as many native-born sons Such is the present condition of trade as France. Scatter all the inhabitants of between the United States and China. Costa Rica or Nicaragua in Canton, and That trade can be greatly extended. Let they would be completely lost in that city's the products of American farms, mills, surging throngs. Transport all the people and workshops once catch the Chinese of Chile into China and they would fill fancy, and America need look no farther only a city of the first class. Further for a market. The present popularity comparisons are needless. Suffice it to of American kerosene illustrates the readisay that China has her teeming millions ness of the Chinese to accept any article to feed and to clothe. Many of the sup- that fills a long-felt want. They have plies come from outside. The share fur- recognized in kerosene a cheap and good nished by the United States might be illuminant, much superior to their own greatly increased. According to the statis- nut-oil, and it has consequently found ties published by the United States gov. its way into distant and outlying parts ernment, China in 1899 took American of the empire where the very name of goods to the value of $14,437,422, of which America is unknown. Stores in the inamount $9,844,565 was paid for cotton terior now send their agents to the treatygoods. All the European countries com- ports for it. In the same way, foreignbined bought only $1,484,363 worth of made candles, because cheaper than those American cotton manufactures during the of home make, are selling easily in China. same period. The amount of similar pur- I would suggest that American farmers chases made by the Central American and manufacturers might find it to their states was $739,259; by all the South advantage to study the wants and habits American countries $2,713,967. It thus of the Chinese and the conditions of trade appears that China is the largest buyer in China. of American cotton goods. British America comes next in the list with purchases amounting to $2,759,164. Cotton cloth has a wide range of uses in all parts of the Chinese Empire, and it is almost impossible for the supply to equal the demand. Up to the year 1898 cotton goods and kerosene were the only articles imported from the United States in large enough quantities to have a value of over Thus we see that China can give the United States a much-needed market. What, on the other hand, can the United States do for China? Let us consider China's stock of the three requisites for the production of wealth-land, labor, and capital. The Chinese Empire embraces a continuous territory which stretches over sixty degrees of longitude and thirty-four degrees of latitude. Nature has endowed this immense region with every variety of Szechuen is called the River of Golden soil and climate, but has, however, Sand. Much more important than these, scattered her bounties over it with an however, are the deposits of coal which uneven hand. That portion which com- underlie the surface formation of every prises the eighteen provinces of China province. All varieties of coal are found, proper, extending from the Great Wall to from the softest lignite to the hardest anthracite, and in such quantities that, according to the careful estimate of Baron Richtofen, the famous German traveller and geologist, the province of Shansi alone can supply the whole world, at the present rate of consumption, for 3,000 years. In most cases beds of ironore lie in close proximity to those of coal, and can hence be easily worked and smelted. In short, the natural resources of China, both in variety and quantity, are so great that she stands second to no other nation in potential wealth. To reduce the China Sea, and from the Tibetan plateau to the Pacific Ocean, is more highly favored than the rest. Whenever China is mentioned, it is generally this particular portion of the empire that is meant. On this land hundreds of generations of men have lived and died without exhausting its richness and fertility. There remains for generations to come untold wealth of nature lying hidden within the bowels of the earth. The mines of Yunnan, though they have for centuries supplied the government mints with copper for the coining of those pieces of money this potentiality to actuality is for her commonly known as cash, only await the introduction of modern methods of extraction to yield an annual output as large as that of the famous Calumet and Every village can count its thousands Hecla mines. The sands of the Yangtsze, of laborers, every city its tens of thouwashed down from the highlands of Tibet, sands. Experience proves that the Chicontain so much gold that that part of nese as all-round laborers can easily its course as it enters the province of distance all competitors. They are in the most important question of the hour. For this purpose she has an almost unlimited supply of labor at her command. |